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NL10 Tricky spot w/ NFD

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Real-MadYid

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10 posts
Joined 06/2012

Villain is 7/3 over 30 hands - I have no reads.

I raise the donk bet to fold out his air/weak pairs - when he repops me I narrow his range to sets, fds, oesds, pair +draws, possibly a slowplayed overpair

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1819599
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $12.98
CO: $10.00
Hero (BTN): $10.20
SB: $49.63

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A Heart 4 Heart
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 3 Heart T Heart 8 Diamond (2 players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, BB raises to $3

Final Pot: $3.05

I feel like I have too much equity to fold here, calling seems bad cos if the turn bricks he can shove and put me in a tough spot but shoving.......

I stoved his range and I have about 47% but what is he folding here to a shove?

Posted 11 months ago

Gizardpuke

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2130 posts
Joined 09/2008

villian is a 7/3 over 30.
y are you raising the flop in the first place?

Posted 11 months ago

Deets

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541 posts
Joined 11/2010

If you've got 47% of a >$20 pot that's +EV if you shove even if he doesn't fold.

Posted 11 months ago

Gizardpuke

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2130 posts
Joined 09/2008

so given the pots a little over $5?

Posted 11 months ago

Deets

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541 posts
Joined 11/2010

Yeah but OP mentioned shoving and seemed to be worried because he didn't think villain would fold. If hero shoves here and villain calls the pot will be $20.55 and if hero has 47% equity that's $9.66. He'll be shoving $8.70 to win $9.66.

I'm not recommending it or saying it's wrong, just that it's +EV.

Posted 11 months ago

Real-MadYid

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10 posts
Joined 06/2012

I raise the flop because it is the first hand I have played against him and at 10nl a lot of players donk with very weak made hands/gutshots/air on a board that is unlikely to hit a pfr and fold to a raise - if he calls then I put him on a lower fd or decent pair and can usually see a river card for free if I want.

He is a 7/3 but only over 30 hands - too small a sample to worry too much about surely - this player ended up playing at 17/8 over the 100 hands he was at my table.

If I call the donk bet and the turn bricks, what am I going to do when he fires again? I could easily end up folding the best hand here and missing a chance to stack flush over flush OTR.

Posted 11 months ago

Deets

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541 posts
Joined 11/2010

In 30 hands he's played 2 and opened 1. You can probably at least infer that he's on the tighter side.

I don't think villain is doing this with too many flush draws, particularly as you have the ace of hearts. What do you think he'd do with non-flushes if the flush draw came in? How many bets would you get out of him?

Looks like a good CardrunnersEV spot. Stanmore, are you out there?

Posted 11 months ago

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

You have equity but since his stats are so nitty you probably dont have any fold equity, i am not raising this flop as i dont expect any folds.

Posted 11 months ago

Mr Riot

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84 posts
Joined 07/2011

Don“t like to raise a 7/3 when he donks the flop. Just call the 0.40$, and fold any turn that isn't a heart, a deuce, or a five.

Posted 11 months ago

thorben17

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165 posts
Joined 08/2010

Calling the flop is fine, but so is raising (he may donk with a lot of broadways or mediocre pairs that he will fold to a flop raise or when you continue on the turn). Also, as already mentioned, raising a donkbet often buys us one or two streets of playing correctly.

As played you probably have 0 fold equity, therefore I'd call (you'll stack his sets and maybe even Tx when you hit your flush).

Regards

Posted 11 months ago

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

Calling the flop is fine, but so is raising (he may donk with a lot of broadways or mediocre pairs that he will fold to a flop raise or when you continue on the turn). Also, as already mentioned, raising a donkbet often buys us one or two streets of playing correctly.

As played you probably have 0 fold equity, therefore I'd call (you'll stack his sets and maybe even Tx when you hit your flush).

Regards


I didnt notice it was a donk bet, i usually always raise donk bets with equity unless i have a read they donk with the nuts

Posted 11 months ago

Mr Riot

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84 posts
Joined 07/2011

euEra

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682 posts
Joined 08/2010

even a 7/3 euEra?


no my read is he is super tight, there are usually 2 reasons people donk bet unless they are regs, they either have a strong PP and are affraid of you sucking out on them or they have a draw. Most of the time its a draw but i can take an educated guess and say this guy has a strong PP the huge majority of the time. My thought process would be can i raise for value (no), can i raise as a bluff (no), can i call (yes) so i would call.

Posted 11 months ago




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