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Merge $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1819554
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BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $89.36
BB: $50.75
UTG: $67.35
CO: $115.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with A A
UTG raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.75, 2 folds, CO calls $4.25

Flop: ($13.50) 2 2 3 (2 players)
Hero ???

Villian is 29/26 over 120 hands. 52% steal, folds to cb 20%, fold to cb 70%, 3 bet 15%

Notes:
Seems very aggro pre (SQ, flat 4 bets, dick waving contest)
Flatted A4s to 3b 200bb and raised TT9r, ck turn and river when turned BDFD and 9o river

I was wondering what the best value line against a guy like this. Although it looks like he folds to a lot of 3b, he will probably flat a lot wider with lower pocket pairs here being so deep. He would probably 3 bet AK/AQ, but may sometimes have that or a random suited connector if he wants to continue trying to outplay everyone, so he may have some air to float or make plays with. My notes on him (dick waving contest) is from about a 10-20 hand series at the beginning of the session where he flatted to a 3 bet or squeezed in a few spots (maybe 3-4) against other regs and seemed a little spewy where he lost w/out a showdown.

I decided to c/r as it looks so FOS and he will probably have a lot of overpairs that are bluff catchers. So is this FPS or better than other options (standard 3 barrel or cb/value from floats)?

cbet the flop always.
most over pairs will call, so there's plenty of value in doing so.
and if he is agro, he might raise hands like TT - QQ. so if he does raise the flop, look stack off on the flop and get it in there.

p.s. you have "fold to cb(et)" stat twice. which value is it? 20% or 70%?

Oh sorry. Fold to cb 20%, fold to 3b 70%.

ok. so given he's called your 3bet, he's representing some form of strength.
cbet, and if he raises, shove to get it in on the flop.

I really disagree that he's raising TT-QQ in a 3 bet pot 200 bb deep. He's definately apt to just call those down if he wants to continue. I think he may decide to muck his weaker pairs though being this deep and 3 barrelling such a dry flop, maybe even as good as JJ. Doesn't c/r instead give me better EV, since they peel the flop and likely a turn bet and sometimes hero call the river vs a FOS line compared to just bet/bet/bet where they often call twice/fold river? Also, aren't they more likely to peel once vs a c/r (and then fold the turn) than they would call a cbet and turn cbet with something like 66? I feel like 66 would float a cbet and just give up any turn, but may feel like floating a c/r since I rep so thin. Thoughts?

when u 3bet some one PF OOP, then look for a c/r, thats typically a sigh of a massive hand.
if your going to do that, then c/c.

but then, if you think he's capable of calling TT-QQ over pairs, then lead 2/3 - 3/4 pot every street.
if he hits a monster, he'll let you know. if he's alert, your only going to get 1 or 2 streets of value max anyway.

I really disagree that he's raising TT-QQ in a 3 bet pot 200 bb deep. He's definately apt to just call those down if he wants to continue. I think he may decide to muck his weaker pairs though being this deep and 3 barrelling such a dry flop, maybe even as good as JJ. Doesn't c/r instead give me better EV, since they peel the flop and likely a turn bet and sometimes hero call the river vs a FOS line compared to just bet/bet/bet where they often call twice/fold river? Also, aren't they more likely to peel once vs a c/r (and then fold the turn) than they would call a cbet and turn cbet with something like 66? I feel like 66 would float a cbet and just give up any turn, but may feel like floating a c/r since I rep so thin. Thoughts?

First: if he has a weak pair (like 88 or worse) he's more likely to check back the flop than bet
Second: even if he bets he won't call a check-raise with such hands (would you ch-raise AK in this spot?)

Just bet, bet, bet