The situation - Im on the SB with 99 100bb, the button who covers me opens for 3bb, he is 65/30 over 20 hands loose aggro who has been running super hot. I call and we are heads-up on the flop.
The flop is 625r - I check to him and he bets his usual pot cbet and I call. His range is basically two random cards. The turn is 7s, which does not put a flush draw on the board. I check, he bets half pot, I raise the pot and he flat calls. His range here remains pretty wide, but his most likely holdings are straight draws and/or a weak pair. I raised because I think he is reraising his monsters and there is a decent chance he will call even with Ace high or a weak pair, because he is pretty loose.
The river is 9. I made a set and it puts four-to-a-straight. The pot is 100bb and effective stacks are 50bb. I check, he shoves.
Here's what I think: there are 17-18% chance that he holds an 8, but he is shoving 100% of the times he has it. For the call to be +EV he needs to shove without an 8 4-5% of the time, which is reasonable and i think I made a good call. Do you think the same and was the turn bet a mistake?