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Really bad session really quick. After having a positive 3 BI yesterday I seemed to blow that away within 45 minutes today. My KK got cracked by...KK

So this hand happened maybe 20 minutes later. I don't want to say I was tilted per se but I maybe have pressed harder than I normally would.

Villain is 25/14 over 55 hands but has only opened once from EP although I know how miniscule that is. It still made me wonder if I should have treated my hand in a 3b or fold context. Is the flatting bad or is there just not enough info yet?

Is the x/r also bad due to my position? I felt since I might had made a mistake calling that I lucked out w/ the flop and wanted to build it to hit with at least 12 clean outs. I also wouldn't hate a fold from him at this point.

Turn bet? Sizing? Should I have made it larger? I felt that with the money in the pot OTT warranted a shove.

Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $12.38
BTN: $11.54
SB: $9.84
BB: $24.25
UTG: $9.95
Hero (MP): $10.52

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A J

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 3 5 2
UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.70, UTG calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.15, 2 players) 8
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.07, UTG raises to $5.54, Hero raises to $8.52 and is all-in, UTG calls $2.41 and is all-in

River: ($20.05, 2 players) Q

I think there are 2 things you need to consider here on the flop:

1. Do i have allot of FE ?
2. If i get it in, do i get it in good

1. Since his overal pfr is 15 i expect a tight range from utg.
I dont know his cbet % but if its high you can expect folds from AK,AQ,KQ to a flop raise.
But i dont think he will ever fold a overpair, and most PP are overpairs on this board.

2. since his utg range is expect to be tight there are not much worse FD's in his range, stuff like 67s,78s,89s is not in his range imo. So when you get it in on this flop your up against a set (you have about 30% equity) or a overpair (50% equity). only situation that is good for you is if he has KQcc.

So if you take a look at his range a raise on the flop doest not make much sense. So i just call the flop and call a turn bet depending on sizing.

As played i check the turn behind, when you raise he does not continue with AK or AQ/KQ so his most likely hand is a overpair. The 8 is not scary to him so i expect allot of calls to a turn bet, better to use position and take a free card imo.

Koekenbakker, do you mean we don't have a raising range on this flop or there're only sets?

Koekenbakker, do you mean we don't have a raising range on this flop or there're only sets?

I think so yea vs this player when i raise the flop i have a set, or AA/KK that i flatted pre because there a squeezers behind or something.

Please dont worry about being balanced or something, he will not realize that when you raise you only have sets.

Pre flop I'm okay with you flatting, I would also be okay if you 3bet here but that more or less would be turning your hand into a bluff against said villain. On the flop I'm okay with you reraising, do you think that your sizing is optimal in this spot? On the turn I don't like that you stacked off I think it would have been better too either check call turn or bet fold turn in this spot.

Pre-flop and flop are "standard," altho' I'd decrease your raise size in order to maintain deeper effective stacks for the turn and the river and to give you a better price on your bluffs, where villains will re-raise All In over a 3x raise regardless and you wont lose as much dead money when they inevitably do as a result.

Once you reach the turn, I think your line is to either bet/call or overbet all in, because you're "balancing your range" between your highest equity draws and your sets in order not to have a naked value betting range on the turn with only sets and in order not to have to check behind your sets and give your opponent's flush draws any free rolls for balance.

I agree the villain has an over pair more often than not, but there's no guarantee the villain wont fold an over pair some percentage of the time when you bet your ~15 outter and you can safely bet/call it off. I agree checking behind is fine as well obviously, especially if you think he's the kind of guy who is going to try to stack a donk you, but you either have to balance your sets with something in your range at a higher level or your turn bet is so value heavy that semi-bluffing here has incredible fold equity and we come full circle.

An alternative line I like a lot in this situation is to call the flop and raise the turn, under the assumption the villain is barreling a lot of his AK, AQ, AJ, ATs type hands and that he'll "derf, derf, Baluga Theorum" and be more inclined to fold an overpair to a turn raise than a flop raise. You're obviously commited to raise/call on the flop or raise/call on the turn either way you play the hand, but delayed semi-bluffing has a ton more dead money and fold equity for sure to make up for the loss of your pot equity by losing one street on your semi-bluff.

As played, once you reach the turn I think you should call his non-AI check raise, because once he non-AI check raises I don't think you have any fold equity by going over the top and you can just call to hit your outs here.