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Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1797822
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UTG+2: $10.40 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 9, 3B: 9, AF: 2.0, Hands: 76

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) Q Q 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets $0.65, MP2 calls $0.65, Hero raises to $1.90, UTG+2 calls $1.25, MP2 folds

Turn: ($5.70) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, [color=red]UTG+2 raises to $8.10


?

I've got $5.72 behind. His early raise suggested AA, KK, QQ, AK, JJ, TT, AQ, AJ, AT. Some people raise there with 99-22 and his stats for VPIP and PFR are the same so he probably always raises when he wants in to the pot.

He cbets only 2/3 of the time, so we might be able to take out AJ & AT of his range on the flop. Also, he calls my raise here (I'm betting to see where I am, but now I'm thinking this isn't a great idea. I'm OOP, so if he's got better he's probably calling so I have a decision to make on the turn, if he's got worse it's very likely someone would call to see the turn and reevaluate. So I'm not sure what info I'm getting. All I could possibly get is if he raises, he's probably got me beat and he's making a mistake there I think if he does)

Turn: I hit a full house, but am I already behind? He could still have any pair from 22-AA, except QQ. He might have AK still but also, AQ.

I'm beating: AK, 99-22.
I'm losing: AA, KK, JJ, AQ
Drawing: TT

So it comes down to this: Does he raise pre from this position with a small pair? The stats say so but it's only 76 hands. The way he's played this hand, not worrying about 2 players in the pot, early raise etc, suggests I'm behind but do I have to play this as I'm beating his likely range?

As I'm beating his likely range I bet for value but then he raises, does he raise with 99-22, AK? AK can probably be removed and if he think's I've got a 3 (which he could put me on 33) he wouldn't raise 22 I'm guessing.

Turn after raise ranges:

I'm beating: 33-99
I'm losing: AA, KK, JJ, AQ
Drawing: TT

Getting close to 4/1 pot odds, maybe 3.5/1.


Call or fold?

If his preflop stats are reliable, then you are giving him too wide a range. In addition, players with super tight stats won't pay you off as light.

If he opens around 10%, then we are probably looking at 77+, AJ+, KQs. He will probably fold AK, AJ to your check-raise, so you are looking at 77+, KQs, AQ on the turn most of the time. Against that range, your equity is below 50% and you should not bet. As played, I might actually check-fold against this player as he would check behind the lower pairs a good amout of the time.

I would not check-raise this guy without trips in this spot because his range is already so strong and we will isolate ourselves against the strong part of an already strong range. Just check-call the flop, and check-fold many turns as you won't get double barrelled often and he will often check-back his lower pocket pairs when another overcard hits. His range is so well defined and it is so clear what he will do that we can be pretty confident with our decisions. Yes, he will sometimes suck out, but less often than we would otherwise lose a ton of money to his better hands.

As played, fold. A nit rarely shoves anything worse than your hand after a flop check-raise and a turn bet.

If his preflop stats are reliable, then you are giving him too wide a range. In addition, players with super tight stats won't pay you off as light.

If he opens around 10%, then we are probably looking at 77+, AJ+, KQs. He will probably fold AK, AJ to your check-raise, so you are looking at 77+, KQs, AQ on the turn most of the time. Against that range, your equity is below 50% and you should not bet. As played, I might actually check-fold against this player as he would check behind the lower pairs a good amout of the time.

The top 10% includes A9s, KTs, QTs, KQ. Players are definitely more inclined to open with low pairs that they are A9s so I have substituted the wrong end of the top 10% for the low pairs. That's how I came to the conclusion of having the low pairs in the range.

I would not check-raise this guy without trips in this spot because his range is already so strong and we will isolate ourselves against the strong part of an already strong range.

I do agree with this part though, even with the low pairs involved in the hand. Thinking about it now, he probably won't be calling below 77 (except 33) so this is bang on and I agree with how you say the rest of the hand should play out.

It doesn't really matter if he's opening small pairs because they probably aren't in his turn range anyways. I would doubt a probable nit (we can't say for sure he's a nit yet) is going to both cbet a hand like 66 into 2 players and call a ch/r. Just ch/c the flop. Ch/fold turn if you do ch/r. As played, really easy fold imo. Once he calls your flop ch/r and then ch/jams this turn, TT is probably drawing dead here.

I can't think of a single hand he'd check/raise that is worse than TT, honestly none of this makes sense to me from your raise flop to his call flop to your bet turn to his check/raise turn to me, so I can only presume he's just overplaying what he thinks is the effective nuts in the queerest way imaginable.

Really strange hand, I can't follow the logic of either player.

It doesn't really matter if he's opening small pairs because they probably aren't in his turn range anyways.

Yes I know, I said that in my post above. But it's good for me to put him on a range pre flop anyway, to get used to doing it automatically. I definitely think small pairs are in his range pre flop which was more my point of reiterating his pre flop range as KKarl pointed out he didn't think that they would be in his range, but the flip side is A9s, QTs etc which I think is incorrect.

Still open to suggestions on what his range could be pre flop or any other point though. If anyone believes A9s is more likely to be in his range than small pairs pre flop, I'd love to hear the reasoning as I can't see why A9s would be opened more than 66.

I can't think of a single hand he'd check/raise that is worse than TT, honestly none of this makes sense to me from your raise flop to his call flop to your bet turn to his check/raise turn to me, so I can only presume he's just overplaying what he thinks is the effective nuts in the queerest way imaginable.

Really strange hand, I can't follow the logic of either player.

As pointed out in the OP I definitely made a mistake on the flop. I'm betting to see where I am, but now I'm thinking this isn't a great idea. I'm OOP, so if he's got better he's probably calling so I have a decision to make on the turn, if he's got worse it's very likely someone would call to see the turn and reevaluate. So I'm not sure what info I'm getting. All I could possibly get is if he raises, he's probably got me beat and he's making a mistake there I think if he does

I don't see why he just calls on the flop either. I think he's probably not sure about raising, but doesn't want to fold, so he's using the call as a compromise. Which shouldn't be a compromise really!

He doesn't check raise at any point. In my OP I explain why I think I have a better hand than most of his range so that's why I bet on the turn. After KKarl posted though I can see this is wrong as he's probably not calling below 77 except 33.

I would expect most villains to be opening small pairs more often from EP than hands like A9s. That said, I don't really play FR or 10nl, so I'm not sure about the standard villain's opening range.

I would say he's opening something like 77+ AJo+, ATs+, KQs almost always and the rest of his range will be either small pairs, or some suited broadway/connectors depending on the player. We can't completely take any of these hands out until we get more reads, but as a base assumption I would expect him to have small pairs more often.

I would expect most villains to be opening small pairs more often from EP than hands like A9s. That said, I don't really play FR or 10nl, so I'm not sure about the standard villain's opening range.

I would say he's opening something like 77+ AJo+, ATs+, KQs almost always and the rest of his range will be either small pairs, or some suited broadway/connectors depending on the player. We can't completely take any of these hands out until we get more reads, but as a base assumption I would expect him to have small pairs more often.

Thanks =) What games and level do you play at?

Thanks =) What games and level do you play at?

Mostly 6max 200nl right now.

Ya dont think raising here to see where your at is a good choice, you should raise for diff reasons...like cause villain will call with worse...also villain is c-betting into 2 people on a very dry board...and hes a 9/9 pre-flop so his nitty pre-flop nature probably carrys over to post-flop. Us raising is super strong here.You polarize yourself with a medium strength hand and iso yourself against the very top of ranges here...pretty much only good reason to RR here is if villain is gonna call with worse PPs or to protect..I think a call line is way better here as villain will become very very truthful on turn and if he bets hes polarized himself so at best we can bluffcatch, but villain prob doesnt have any air on the turn when he bets so we can safely c/f...and MP will also tag along lots with small PP we rape..call and re-evalute turn...Also i think you might be giving him a wrong range...top 10% of hands in pokerstove doesnt mean he has those..zach above gives him a pretty good range.

As pointed out in the OP I definitely made a mistake on the flop. I'm betting to see where I am, but now I'm thinking this isn't a great idea. I'm OOP, so if he's got better he's probably calling so I have a decision to make on the turn, if he's got worse it's very likely someone would call to see the turn and reevaluate. So I'm not sure what info I'm getting. All I could possibly get is if he raises, he's probably got me beat and he's making a mistake there I think if he does

I don't see why he just calls on the flop either. I think he's probably not sure about raising, but doesn't want to fold, so he's using the call as a compromise. Which shouldn't be a compromise really!

He doesn't check raise at any point. In my OP I explain why I think I have a better hand than most of his range so that's why I bet on the turn. After KKarl posted though I can see this is wrong as he's probably not calling below 77 except 33.

Sorry I misread the action, he raises in position, which still makes no sense to me because he's probably never bluffing here and only taking away your ability to value cut yourself on the river.

If villain has position then his call makes more sense now.