Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Hi all, i hopre you had a nice grinding week.

nasty river,

BB unknown 8 hand 23/13

HJ kind of reg(ish), though passive (seems to me but no way to know

42 hands 15/12 /.3 AF/ steal 38% (that's every stat i've got)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.37)
BB ($30.73)
UTG ($8.16)
UTG+1 ($24.46)
Hero ($54.33)
MP1 ($43.31)
MP2 ($61.22)
CO ($25.35)
BTN ($29.90)

Dealt to Hero A K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

FLOP ($3.10) 6 K 5

BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.25, BB calls $2.25

TURN ($9.85) 6 K 5 K

BB checks, Hero bets $8, MP2 calls $8, BB calls $8

RIVER ($33.85) 6 K 5 K 9

BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $17, BB folds,

Hero?

so PF:

HJ over limps so im guessing 22-JJ? , mid suited conectors, all suited brodways and some random gappers.

On the flop i would have liked seen me bet around 2.70-2.90

When both call i def think there are several draws and worst kings.

On the turn i like my bet size and i discard Kx, i think most Kx would have 3b here due to the draws

on the turn 78 got there, 66 and 77 would have chk the turn so i see not a lot of value in betting, K9 migth be and of course de FD, wich are less due to my Ad.

so question?

c/f river
c/hero call river
b/f?

guys?

Might bet river smallish to get value from all worse Kx, however as played folding is probably best since he can have a lot of Flushes, a few boats, 78 and is unlikely to value bet a worse Kx often on that river. Kx is not that likely to raise turn (even with draws being there)

HJ over limps so im guessing 22-JJ? , mid suited conectors, all suited brodways and some random gappers.

what do you think his raising range is then? AA-QQ?

When he limps his most likely range is some "speculative" hands (i don't even know what that means but apparently it means hands that want to see a flop cheap)

When he calls 2 bets multiway his range is FD and boats since he can't have many Kx hands.

I give it a try.

If he has 55 or 66, he will raise it some time earlier in the hand, particularly flop, and sometimes just call. There are 6 combos, I would think we could estimate that he has 3 in his river range here, partly because he would raise often earlier, partly because he bets small.

If he calls us with 78s pre, he has 4 combos, one of which would be a monster draw on the flop, which he is likely to raise. Not all villains call pre, not all call turn, so lets say he has 3 combos on river.

Flush draws: TJ, QT, KT, QJ, KJ, KQ, AT, AJ, AQ. 9 combos, 3 of which are a monster on the flop as they also have top pair, so he will raise them some of the time. Sometimes, he may also call with a weaker suited A. Let's give him 8 combos on the river.

We beat 3 combos of KQ, one combo KJ if we assume he calls pre only suited, similarly one combo KT. Sometimes he will also show up with a surprise hand like an AK we chop with. But sometimes he might also check back strong or not call KTs pre. So, let's stick to 5 combos we beat.

So we beat 5 and lose to 14 combos which makes the call roughly break even given that we are getting 3:1. Without any further reads, we can fold to decrease variance or call to increase informtation. Any kind of read or slight adjustments in his pre range could tip the balance one way or the other. For instance, if he is passive, he is less likely to raise strong hands earlier in the hand and also less likely to bet medium strength hands on the river, so his river range becomes stronger and we should fold.

[quote]what do you think his raising range is then? AA-QQ?

I think his rasing range is the a little bit wider than his calling range,

3bet squeezing range, this being zoom, i think is very stron AK-QQ