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Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1791981
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BB: $21.52 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 21, 3B: 4, AF: 2.4, Hands: 53

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 6 J 4 (2 players)
BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Turn: ($3.40) K (2 players)
BB bets $1.30, Hero raises to $3.75, BB calls $2.45

River: ($10.90) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.80, BB raises to $16.12, Hero??

Should we fold this?

Call. Villain is laggy and can have a worse set, or KJ, AJ, etc.

You should raise larger on the turn though to set up a river shove.

Yes, but with a set of 66 or 44 he would reraise the turn and get it AI and I don't think he would be donking a set. Also KJ he would get it in on the turn. We can beat AJ though. But it looks like a turned flush draw most of the time as he played it, don't you agree?

There are not that many flush combos he can have. Jh7h-QhJ, maybe 8h7h, maybe a little more weird stuff which donked the flop and luckboxed into a flush. So, we could give him generously about 8 flush combos. Sometimes he will fold AJ to the turn raise, sometimes not. Given that he is loose, we may assume he calls at least 1/3 of the time, giving him one AJ combo out of the three possible ones. That alone wouldn't be sufficient to call. But although shipping his sets and KJ on the turn would make sense for villain, some people just love to play big hands tricky/weird. If that happens only about 1/3-1/4 of the time, then he as an additional 2-3 combos in his range we beat. So we are good here about 1/3 of the time and we are getting 4:1, so call. Add in some surprise hands, and the call looks even better.

Should not fold this. If he shows up here with a hand that beats you (straight or flush) then lord help him... because really the only hand I can see beating you here is like 67 or maybe 54 hearts... otherwise, it's far more likely to be AK that he flatted with than a flush or straight. He'd have to float A LOT of flops with backdoors to be ahead of you here.

I`m probably the only one who likes flop raise more then waiting turn to do that, even though it is a dry flop?

If he has 77-TT we are unlikely to get value later in the hand because of decent amount of overcards that hits our opening range (T,Q,K,A). It`s going to be hard for him to bet/call with 88 on Q turn.

If he holds overs he may or may not fold them on the flop (probably not folding overs + backdoor stuff).

And we get information for future how he reacts to raising his donk bet, leading us to better decisions later when we aren`t sure if we should raise his donkbet on the flop with different hands on future flops.

Thoughts?

I think this is a good idea, especially information wise. I did consider raising, but since donk bets are usually weak, I didn't want to push him of the hand.

I`m probably the only one who likes flop raise more then waiting turn to do that, even though it is a dry flop?

I like the flop raise, with those stats he is calling 2/3 pot raise on the flop, which sets up a nice turn bet, and a shove on the river.Played as it is, i would call 90% not too thrilled about it, but its more likely he is shoving smaller set, aj, a6, or a4 on the river.

I think this is a good idea, especially information wise. I did consider raising, but since donk bets are usually weak, I didn't want to push him of the hand.

Don`t get the wrong idea that you are raising "for information for future". It would be for value and it is just an added bonus that you could potentially pick up a valuable note for future confrontations with this villain.

raise a tad larger on the turn here. i'd call the river but not jam..

flop is fine as well. board is dry as hell and we have the nuts.