Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Villain plays about 30/22/2% 3 bet 31% Attempt steal over about 180 hands, kind of loose passive, seems to play fit or fold post, BB is really bad.

Merge - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $57.24
MP: $104.29
CO: $50.44
BTN: $50.00
Hero (SB): $60.64
BB: $14.46

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.00, Hero raises to $4.50, BB calls $4.00, BTN calls $3.50

Flop: ($13.50, 3 players) 4 3 J
Hero bets $4.60, BB calls $4.60, BTN calls $4.60

Turn: ($27.30, 3 players) 2
Hero bets $13.65, fold, BTN calls $13.65

River: ($54.60, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $37.89 and is all-in, BTN calls $27.25 and is all-in

The reason I bet so small on the flop is because I thought the short stacker might shove over the top and still not necessarily get the btn to fold, so I could then re raise. Also, it's a pretty dry flop, and I don't have much to protect from, so it probably gets more loose pot-odds calls with smaller pps and stuff. I guess I should have just bet enough to set him in, like about 3/4 pot. I just didn't want him to shove for like a dollar more and make it where I couldn't re raise...

When you get called on the turn im starting to think what hand villian has, your 3bet pre flop was pretty huge so i think that contorts his calling range somewhat and makes it a little stronger, but on the other hand someone cold called giving him a better price to call. Becase the flop is so dry i doubt he has AKs so we can remove this from his range. If you thought he could have called AKs on the flop and turn a flush draw then your river shove is bad as it doesnt accomplish anything vs AKs.
When he peels flop i have him on a range of AJ, 99 TT JJ QQ KK AA maybe KJ. On the turn do we think 99 or TT will call enough of the time? Maybe, i guess you could convince me either way, it depends how bad he really is. I would still definately bet, probably a little bigger than what you bet, around 16.50.
Now on the river 99 improved, we beat KJ, AJ ant TT and we lose against 99, JJ, KK, AA. I doubt if he is crazy enough to come this far with TT that he will call a shove, i think KJ folds and i also think AJ folds too much of the time aswell.
I dont like your shove as i dont think it accomplishes anything, i think a check is better.
I would fold vs a shove and call a small bet as i think KJ and AJ are capable of firing a small bet enough of the time.

K thanks, in all the hands(not a huge number) I have on this guys he has literally never folded to a 3 bet pre, I should have said.

K thanks, in all the hands(not a huge number) I have on this guys he has literally never folded to a 3 bet pre, I should have said.

I like your 3 bet size, good to see your not just 3 betting standard, you are thinking situationally.

This looks like AJ-KJ, PP. I would have bet a little more OTT I think. The only hand that I can see vilain having that beats you here are AA-KK and 99. And since you betted so small he probably has a lot of overs in his range.

On the river I like the shove with effective stacks remaining. True, you make all missed FD fold, but I think that if he called so far with AJ and maybe KJ, he will call the river. If you were beat, he would have likely raised you OTT.

By the river, I think villain's calling range can be:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.867% 66.66% 00.21% 57069268 178797.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 33.133% 32.92% 00.21% 28188338 178797.00 { KK, 99, 44, AJs, KJs, AJo, KJo }

I put in one PP combination that wouldn't raise the turn (as I think villain would raise like 2 out of 3 times with set on turn). If we fold out QJ (which doesn't happen 100% of time), we still have good equity vs a calling range. Looks like a good spot to value bet

I didnt realise on the river the shove was effectively a 1/2 pot bet. Worst case scenario is he has sets, overpairs or AJs every time and AJo half the time, we still have better than 26% equity. Just ran it through a fold equity calc and villian has told fold 0% of the time to make it profitable.