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So i decided to do a full analysis in EV of a couple of common spots such as this one, villain is a regular and plays like 20/18. 60% cbet in these spots.

In pokerstove i came up with this so far:

Villain cbets this board with 13.4%
Villain continues vs my raise with 7.9%, this is mostly filled with overpairs, All his FD combinations, A2-A5, A7, 67/87/79.

Now i think some of that 7.9% he is gonna reraise, and some he is just gonna flat. I'm trying to think of what he is gonna be raising, and if he is gonna be flatting atall.

So far i came up with 88-JJ that might just call my raise, maybe 87s/97s/67s. I think he is raising any Ahigh flush draw, K high flush draw, overpair thats QQ+ for sure. A7, He might call my raise with lower Ax that aren't spades.

You can maybe also put some input on if you think raising or calling is better here.

Full Tilt Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 901639
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.41
SB: $28.93
BB: $45.73
CO: $26.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with J T
CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 7 2 3 (2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.75, [color=red]CO

I like raising vs most villains. You should have decent fold equity. Calling is good sometimes too, especially if he fires the flop but plays honest on the turn.

Don't you think a reg, who presumably is positionally aware, would raise greater than 20 percent from the cutoff? I think his opening range would be closer to 30 percent than 20. And consequently his cbetting range would be greater than 13% on the flop while his call raise range should stay about you described.

I think raising in position with overs+FD has to be plus ev in a vacuum because you will be folding a lot of his cbetting range and you will get a free turn card against a lot of his calling range. I think calling must be plus ev as well but I'm not so sure of the reasons why other than your equity.

Don't you think a reg, who presumably is positionally aware, would raise greater than 20 percent from the cutoff? I think his opening range would be closer to 30 percent than 20. And consequently his cbetting range would be greater than 13% on the flop while his call raise range should stay about you described.

I think raising in position with overs+FD has to be plus ev in a vacuum because you will be folding a lot of his cbetting range and you will get a free turn card against a lot of his calling range. I think calling must be plus ev as well but I'm not so sure of the reasons why other than your equity.

These numbers are all based on around a 1K hand sample, this guy in particular doesn't seem to be very positional aware and has around 18% utg open and 22% Bu open.

The thing is tho, if he is gonna raise my cbet with almost essentially the same range he's gonna be calling it with(there are maybe some obvious calls such as 88-99 and 87/A7), and according to pokerstove i'm at a 47% Equity against that range, this would mean that its probably better for me to keep his worse hands in his range so that he will continue betting the turn.

I mean this assumption is a little bit far, but if I make a EV calc where he is gonna reraise with over 50% of his cbetting range ((7.9/13.4)*100) and he doesn't have a calling range, raising becomes -EV. Since I don't think there are alot of hands he is gonna flat here It makes me think calling is better.

I know this is a little bit of a meh situation because its clear that both calling and raising are gonna be good, I'm just trying to figure out in what situation which is better cause i'm very interested in trying to find this out from a math point of view.