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25 NL Top Two pair facing 3rd barrel


TheAJ87

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48 posts
Joined 07/2009

Villain is playing 16/13 ATS:25 AF:4.5 FCB:67 out of 65 hands.
River play?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $25.00
SB: $25.80
Hero (BB): $32.70

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with Q Spade T Spade
1 fold, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 7 Club 7 Heart Q Club (2 players)
SB bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.00) T Diamond (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($10.00) 5 Diamond (2 players)
SB bets $20.80 all in

Posted over 1 year ago

SCS

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5109 posts
Joined 06/2008

I wouldn't think villain would have a lot of 7x hands in his range here, but we only have 65 hands. Unlikely that villain has a set since you have blockers to both, and he might not bet TT on the flop. River overbets are usually strong hands though at 25nl. This could be AA/KK or an overplayed AQ/KQ enough to make a call profitable.

Posted over 1 year ago

identifier

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1932 posts
Joined 07/2008

I think he thinks you have a Q and are not going to fold it, so he's shoving something for value that beats a naked Q. How often it's AQ or KQ compared to something that beats you I'm not sure.

Posted over 1 year ago

DwelF

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823 posts
Joined 10/2009

i think this is a pretty clear fold, you have to call 20 into 30 meaning you need to be good 40%. Since overpairs beat you, this is a unlikely line for AQ/KQ, and like no tight regs on 25NL would make this play with a missed FD.

Posted over 1 year ago

Erix5son

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325 posts
Joined 02/2010

I think he thinks you have a Q and are not going to fold it, so he's shoving something for value that beats a naked Q. How often it's AQ or KQ compared to something that beats you I'm not sure.



no. he is prolly thinking: I got a set or FH lets get in arrr in go go go!
7x, QQ and occasionally overpair Smile clear fold

Posted over 1 year ago




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