Just sat down and know nothing other than villian has 60bb stack. Given the flat call of my preflop raise and the draw heavy board, I assumed his all in check raise was either some sort of Ax flush draw and he was trying to push me off a hand like I had or something like KJ, KT, or maybe QJ and he was trying to discourage a draw. Given that his range of made hands pretty much leaves me drawing to a T or maybe an ace, is this a semi-bluff enough to make the call? My thought for call was that he would flat call or raise less with top pair or better, but obviously I was wrong.


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $15.45
CO: $23.65
Hero (BTN): $24.25
SB: $16.50
BB: $9.80
UTG: $25.70

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with A Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) K J Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $9.05 all in, Hero calls $7.80

Turn: ($19.70) K (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($19.70) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $19.70
Hero mucks A Q
BB shows J K (a full house, Kings full of Jacks)
BB wins $18.75
(Rake: $0.95)

There are so many combos here that you're going to need at least 25% equity here which I don't think we quite have.

If we factor in every major drawing hand including 2pair and nut hands we don't quite have enough.

In short, please see above post

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

51,480 games 0.016 secs 3,217,500 games/sec

Board: Ks Jh Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.078% 15.83% 03.25% 8147 1674.50 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 80.922% 77.67% 03.25% 39984 1674.50 { AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcTc, AhTh, AsTs, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QcJc, T9s, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KcJd, KcJs, KdJc, KdJs, KhJc, KhJd, KhJs, QcJd, QcJs, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, T9o }

So even if he is semi-bluffing here there is just too much in the pot to make a profitable call.

There are so many combos here that you're going to need at least 25% equity here which I don't think we quite have.

If we factor in every major drawing hand including 2pair and nut hands we don't quite have enough.

In short, please see above post

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

51,480 games 0.016 secs 3,217,500 games/sec

Board: Ks Jh Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.078% 15.83% 03.25% 8147 1674.50 { AdQd }
Hand 1: 80.922% 77.67% 03.25% 39984 1674.50 { AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcTc, AhTh, AsTs, KcJc, KdJd, KhJh, QcJc, T9s, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KcJd, KcJs, KdJc, KdJs, KhJc, KhJd, KhJs, QcJd, QcJs, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, T9o }

So even if he is semi-bluffing here there is just too much in the pot to make a profitable call.

Thanks. This makes a lot of sense. In thinking about a hand like this, would you ever give more weight to possiblity of a draw given the large raise size, or do you assume he would do this equally with made hands/draws?

Hard to say since he's a shorty who's usually just looking to take down a pot any way he can. That being said, draws do make up a larger part of his range in a vacuum, however I find that typically this is some weak top pair+backdoor hand like KhTs or Kc9s etc and he may be trying to get you to fold, or thinks he's ahead and doesn't want you to draw. Even then you have to just bite it and fold.

Thanks again. This helps, I've been having a lot of trouble with this sort of thing.