what kind of equity do you think i have in this pot?
7 posts, 6 voices
- nomoD
- Deuce High
-
7 posts
Joined 08/08
Villian is 25/9/1.6 over 500 hands. I feel like I'm mostly beaten in this spot, but I'm wondering what kind of range other members would put villain on. For example, if villian takes this line with 88+, then i've got enough equity to make call... if I can put some AK or AQ hands into them mix, then its close to flipping while getting 2:1 in the pot.
So basically, what range would you put a villian with these stats on after this postflop action? Equity practice! Thanks!
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (BB) ($46.75)
UTG ($240.52)
MP ($56.70)
CO ($48.76)
Button ($46.75)
SB ($31.03)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 10
, 10
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Button raises $2.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75
Flop: ($7) 4
, 6, 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, Button bets $5.50, Hero raises $15, 1 fold, [color=#CC3333]Button raises $39 (All-In)
Total pot: $37
- Justice88
- Pair of Deuces
-
153 posts
Joined 03/08
Dynamic dependent in some measure. However in a vacuum, which I hate to use, but if we look at this in absolutes, i'd say
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
626,703,264 games 0.031 secs 20,216,234,322 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.866% 49.65% 00.22% 311162766 1350792.00 { JJ+, 99-77, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 50.134% 49.92% 00.22% 312838914 1350792.00 { TT }
However, augmenting this baseline, if you don't think he's stacking with this small PP's, your equity of course comes down significantly. Does he do this with AK? Prob not without history. Maybe throw in A4s.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
297,940,896 games 0.005 secs 59,588,179,200 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.584% 71.38% 00.21% 212660418 617061.00 { JJ+, 6c6d, 6c6h, 6d6h, Ad4d, As4s }
Hand 1: 28.416% 28.21% 00.21% 84046356 617061.00 { TT }
Pot is 66.50, and you have 29.5 left (~44% pot equity). So against the first range you're marginally +EV, and if you throw in A4s, TT is almost exactly a coinflip, so again with 44% pot equity its marginally +EV.
As played I think I can find a fold on the flop since your line is strong and he likely isn't doing this with AK unless you have some history, but it does suck.
- winztonchan
- Deuce High
-
75 posts
Joined 01/08
Why the raise on the flop? I would just smooth call and re-evaluate turn. Villain has a very small preflop raise hand so his range pre would probably be only 1010+ AKAQ MAYBE AJ. On the flop, our raise folds out AK AQ AJ hands, while all the other hands that beat us will probably push. Villains range against you is never AK AQ AJ or any overs because even his post flop aggression is very small, which means he has you beat probably 98 percent of the time.
- Manchild
- Deuces Full
-
949 posts
Joined 01/08
does he know how to isolate limpers?
does he know that he should raise more hands on the BT than he does in other seats?
a range for villain can't really be made w/o knowing those things.
and as someone else mentioned, flop raise here doesn't make a lot of sense, call and reevaluate on the turn is better
- pkr_brat
- Deuces Full
-
627 posts
Joined 01/08
call and reevaluate on the turn is better
I think this is what you need to do If you raise like you did you say i have a good pr, If you call and he bets strong again you can say ok hes not doing this with 2s. And then say ok i beat 9s down will he do this with that? A 25/9 most likely wont.
- nomoD
- Deuce High
-
7 posts
Joined 08/08
Thanks for advice everyone.
I raised flop mainly because I thought villian could be raising pre and continuation betting here with a wide range of hands, and I didn't want to continue out of position if any of the four overcards fell on the turn. My standard play here is to fold, but after playing around with equity calculations recently, I think I may be folding too often in situations like this. So I was just wondering how often my opponent needs to be shoving light in order to make this a call. Looking at justice's post, I think folding is still correct here.
Manchild,
Do I just look at villian's VPIP and PFR by position to get an understanding of how much he is opening up and isolating in position? About how many hands do I need on a villian to get an accurate read here?