Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

BTN seems to be an aggressive player - he will have a decently wide range here PF OTB and seems to follow up with a pretty good amount of post flop aggression. SB is a fish.

I'd like to focus on the river - I think the turn play is pretty clear but am willing to discuss it if anyone wants.

I have done a Stove that I'll share later and I think it's pretty close - I'll be interested to hear what you guys think.

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 429148
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with A 5
3 folds, BTN raises, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) 7 5 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, SB calls, Hero calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BTN calls, SB calls

River: (7.5 BB) Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, BTN raises, SB folds, Hero...

There are times I check raise this flop, it's sorta a 'flop squeeze' and obviously has some value, if it doesnt it's obviously a semibluff. I would definitely c/r a rainbow one or this one holding the A.

As played, I like the turn play, I see this getting checked through too much but the button with the SB coming along to the turn.

Now the river, one of the worst cards out there to fall, does he raise this river w/Q9?

I like c/r'ing here because the board is so drawy, I'd like to misrepresent my range as much as possible

I do like the turn

I'd probably just call the river but, if he is pretty aggro then he can probably have Q5 Q7 Q9 so it's got to be close

Fwiw, I seriously dislike a flop c/r. I guess it's for value, but I doubt we're ahead of enough of our opponent's combined ranges to make that value more attractive than calling.

I don't see how river is anything but a call. I'd like to hear why it's close to anything else. I guess if he has every single Qx 2pair combo in his range, it might be close to a 3bet, but I doubt he will.

Fwiw, I seriously dislike a flop c/r. I guess it's for value, but I doubt we're ahead of enough of our opponent's combined ranges to make that value more attractive than calling.

I don't see how river is anything but a call. I'd like to hear why it's close to anything else. I guess if he has every single Qx 2pair combo in his range, it might be close to a 3bet, but I doubt he will.

yeah let me clarify that I wouldn't c/r here, I was responding to JT who said he'd rather c/r on a rainbow board whereas I'd rather do on a two tone board

Pretty gross, but given that he only needs to have about 3 combos of Q9 to make it a call, I think it's a call. I may have undercooked the number of trashy spades he could be raising though.

It's interesting that some people interpreted my post to be asking if we should b/f the river, and others interpreted it to be asking if we should b/3b the river.

Hands we lose to:
QQ - 3 combos
KJ through K8 - 4 combos total
JT through J8 - 3 combos total
T9 through T8 - 2 combos total
98 - 1 combo
13 total combos

Hands we beat:
Q9s (note it cannot be in ) - 2 combos ( and )
Q7s (again, not possible in ) - 3 combos (, , and )
Q9o - 7 combos (making sure to not double count suited combos)
12 combos

Plugging the above range into Stove gives us 48% equity.

I did not have to give him all rivered Qx two pair combos to make it close. If I can get Q7o in there (which I actually think he will have), then 3 betting starts looking even better.

I think it's easy to overestimate the number of hands he can have on this board (N.B., I'm assuming he pops Ax on the turn).

Turn could be great. But there are also a lot of players that are silly second barellers that I would XR vs. The river looks like a call to me.

No AQ combos?

Also, I think your Kxs combo estimate is low. I think most people raise at least K4s, and a lot (fish like me) Kxs otb.

I think we're more likely to have 25-30% here than 50%, but obv doesn't matter since it's still a call.

I think the turn depends a lot on the opponents you are playing.
Many will auto 2nd barrel it on this board while others won't, also in a 3way pot with a fishy SB.
Personally I check-raise it more than I donk.

No matter what I think the river is a clear bet/call, I think we also need to consider that he might have a raise/fold range here consisting of single pairs and a few bluffs (if he is really aggro). He could see your play as a weakish Ax that was afraid of the turn getting checked through. And with Ax played this way we do bet/fold here or?

I like a bet-call on the river. I dont think its worth a 3bet to push a 1 or 2 % edge and to make the decisions more complicated. There are enough hands that we beat but if we want to call a cap we need to beat 66%.

No AQ combos?

I think he would raise them on the turn, which is why I donked there (in order to b/3b of course).

Also, I think your Kxs combo estimate is low. I think most people raise at least K4s, and a lot (fish like me) Kxs otb.

I can accept that, but realize that you're only adding 4 combos (K6, K4, K3, and K2). And when we expand the Kxs range I think we MUST include Q7o, which is 6 combos. So even if you are correct this factor kind of cancels itself out in my mind.

By the way, just to clarify my second post I was NEVER thinking about folding here. I think the question is if I should 3-bet. I disagree pretty strongly with the posts stating that it's not even close or that the river is a clear call. I agree it's a clear call if our only other choice is fold, but that's not the same thing.

None of this is to say that I'm sure this is a 3-bet. I'm still undecided. I just don't think it's nearly as standard a spot as some of the responses are making it out to be.

I can accept that, but realize that you're only adding 4 combos (K6, K4, K3, and K2). And when we expand the Kxs range I think we MUST include Q7o, which is 6 combos. So even if you are correct this factor kind of cancels itself out in my mind.

I don't think this is true at all, you can open K2s+ on the btn and still fold Q7o which is about 43%

even in stox's book he has K2s+ and only Q9o+ on the btn

I don't think a river 3bet is good at all. There are a lot more combos of flushes and QQ than there are of queens up. Make the Q the Q and now we have a brand new ball game.

Turn could be great. But there are also a lot of players that are silly second barellers that I would XR vs. The river looks like a call to me.

Agree with this for sure.