mtobberup
33 posts
Joined 03/2010
DeathDonkey
5387 posts
Joined 11/2006
You are thinking about all of the right things. There is indeed merit in letting a guy barrel on such a board, as you have noticed your equity is good but your opponent tends to play "correctly" against your exact hand on these board textures. I'd guess he will make more mistakes if you play a bit passively when the board comes poorly for you, but is still too good to fold because you under-repped your hand preflop.
I would say in general just be a little bit more willing to change your plans once you see the flop, as you aren't required to CR the flop to make up the value from preflop, sometimes the flop just comes bad. I mean let's say you played a different strategy preflop and cap your QQ and then it comes A52, you are basically in the same situation but now you are going to have the betting lead and face some awkward spots and tough decisions on whether to call down if raised or make a laydown, etc.
Posted over 1 year ago
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pasita
1071 posts
Joined 09/2009
When I stove my QQ against a 12% 3bet range I have 70% equity on 5c 2c Ks flop and almost the same if I change the K to an A. Wich leads me to think that its +EV to C/r and call down almost every time.
My stoving gives a lot more pessimistic number. Make the K an A and remove your BDFD and you're a dog to 12% range.
Anyway, even if you give villain a very aggressive 3! range of 30% and get the 70% equity, this is a pretty good example of having good equity does not necessarily mean the most +EV line is to aggressively start putting money in.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Allermand_DK
773 posts
Joined 11/2008
Hmm.. I think it comes down to handreading, reads, dynamics and levelling a lot in this spot imo. (I´m playing NLHE). Ask yourself questions like: Is he valuebetting? bluffing? semibluffing etc. What are yours perceived range? And take one street at a time, yours range and his range changes for every action. And stove his range.
Hope this helps.
Sune
Posted over 1 year ago
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BigBadBabar
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aaahshoveit
686 posts
Joined 09/2008
I'm fine with the flop c/r but if we get re-raised on the turn we can probably fold this given our lack of outs when behind. Vs a 12% 3bettor there probably arn't enough FD's in his range that calling the turn and looking to avoid a club is going to be worth it and straight draws (on a 9/T/J turn) are unlikely due to it being a very aggressive move and due to us already holding 2 queens. Most likely your just getting re-raised by a better hand that we have few outs vs. On top of that we'll be calling the turn with any draw we raised the flop with and all our TP's which have better equity then QQ even if it's just from having 1 extra out due to a live kicker. Alternatively though I don't see there being anything wrong with just calling down.
Posted over 1 year ago
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Deepsquat
661 posts
Joined 12/2007
Im not against a flop cr here, although vs an unknown id just c/c and get to SD. I think this hand is too strong to fold anywhere.
Vs someone i have a read on and know how wide they are 3betting, whether or not they are cbetting turns etc etc I may decide to c/r.
For instance if he has a very low turn cbet % or chks back alot of turns i may be more likely to cr flop.
Posted over 1 year ago
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hurla
216 posts
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shuttle
3333 posts
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mtobberup
33 posts
Joined 03/2010
First of I want to say thanks for the inputs, they are appreciated.
I think the point DeathDonkey makes about villain playing correctly against my hand is exactly spot on. And I think I will tend to play spots like this more passively in the future. Im already doing this in position. The reason that I have been c/r in these spots is not so much to make up for the ½bet that i miss from not capping preflop as it is to avoid what I thought was a small disaster, villain checks back the turn with a hand with sd value that is worse than mine. Here Deepsquat has a very good point of looking at the turn cbet stat and changeing strategy on a low Cbet%.
What are your thoughts on villain checking back the turn is that not really to big of a concern?
I should probably say that the 12% 3bet range was one that I chose because at my stakes it is close to the standard tag regs 3bet % wich i thought was relavent. This particular villain was 26.7% over the small sample of 57 hands.
Posted over 1 year ago
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liquid_quik
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BigBadBabar
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pasita
1071 posts
Joined 09/2009
make this flop KJx or KTx and we like c/r a lot more. confirm/deny?
Intuitively I can see a point in this. With the K52 villain has less preflop 3! hands that are both behind hero and calling down. With the KT board villain has lots of Ts that can't fold at any point, or at least draws that call the CR and turn bet. Then again, those hands may well be betting 3 streets for value/bluff... haven't done the math here.
Posted over 1 year ago
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pasita
1071 posts
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What are your thoughts on villain checking back the turn is that not really to big of a concern?
It's a concern, but there's not very much you can do: you're OOP, you have a good but not huge hand on the flop (given the preflop action). You'd be happy to see betting on 3 streets and a raise on one, but if there are 2 raises in the hand you're in a bad spot.
If villain checks back his JT giving up on turn or river, it's not a disaster. He wasn't calling down after you cr any way. You've given him a chance to put in money dead and maybe improve enough on the river to put in the 3rd bet.
Posted over 1 year ago
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