Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

6/12: Artichoke Joe's, San Bruno, California

A Friday afternoon game. No history with anyone at the table. The game is fairly passive.

Preflop:

Hero in HJ with AT

2 calls, hero raises, 3 calls, 2 limpers call (12 SB)

Flop: AQJ

Check to hero who bets, 3 callers. (15 SB)

Turn: T

UTG bets, 1 fold, hero calls (7 BB)

I have two pair. I'm fairly certain the UTG has a King or two hearts, or maybe both. I have odds to call the turn against a range of Kings and two hearts. If we don't fill on the river, do we pay off? I'll be getting 8 to 1 on the river, but players in this game tend to be on the passive side.

Which two hearts do you think he has here? Because I think he has a K here 95% of the time and our equity isn't so good.

i think if you're going to pay off the river you might as well raise the turn. Most of the time people will just call even w/the king (for sure with two pairs that beat you), and pay off even when the board pairs on the river. And if you do get raised on the turn you still have the odds to call plus you know where you stand as far as calling the river without filling up.

Which two hearts do you think he has here? Because I think he has a K here 95% of the time and our equity isn't so good.

any two suited ... its 6/12 at AJs ...

i think if you're going to pay off the river you might as well raise the turn. Most of the time people will just call even w/the king (for sure with two pairs that beat you), and pay off even when the board pairs on the river. And if you do get raised on the turn you still have the odds to call plus you know where you stand as far as calling the river without filling up.

You don't have the odds to raise. You barely have the odds to call, if you take into account implied odds and *some* times that he has two hearts.

there's not enough in their to draw to your boat here especially if you're not closing the action.

I've been messing with a hand range calculator of sorts, and this is what I'm coming up with.
- Let's assume our opponent is very loose, playing ~50% of his hands. I'm assuming any pair, any 2 broadway, any 2 suited, and some connected cards. The actual distribution doesn't really matter, as long as we lump in all the hands he could possibly have on the turn.
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o

Of this hand distribution, given the board and our 2 cards, he has:
A straight (Kx): 0.1807 => 18% [our equity = 12.5%]
Better 2 pair or a set (AQ,AJ,AA,QQ,JJ,TT): 0.0402 -> 4% [our equity = 10%]
Lower Straight (98): .0321 => 3% [12.5%]
Same 2 pair (AT): 0.0080 => 1% [50%]
Worse 2 pair (QJ,QT,JT): 0.0422 => 4% [90%]
A heart draw (xhyh): 0.0863 => 9% [80%]
Something else: 0.6104

Let's assume that he wouldn't play "something else" in this manner. Therefore, our opponents' rebalanced holdings are:
A-hi Straight: 47%
Better 2pair/set: 10% (probably way less likely - most people raise big pairs preflop)
Low Straight: 8%
Same Hand: 2% (unlikely, but low percentage anyways)
Worse 2pair: 10% (probably not likely - i think people check/call with these hands)
Heart draw: 23%

Even if our opponent could have any 2 hearts, he still has the ace high straight at least twice as often.

Pot should be like 7BB on the turn right? I see 15SB after flop = 7.5BB on the turn (minus rake => 7BB). After villain's turn bet, we're getting 8:1 immediate odds.

Let's say he's only betting a flush draw (33%) or the nut straight in this situation (67%), and will follow up with a river valuebet/bluff 100% if we don't raise the turn. Let's also assume that he'll bet/call the river if an ace or T comes. However, if we raise the turn, he'll 3bet w/ the straight and call with the flush draw (but not bluff the river). I'm also ignoring chops (3 kings left)

Strategy #1: Call turn, call river (raise if we boat up)
- result 1: we boat up/he has a straight (+10) * (.08)*(.67)
- result 2: we miss / he has a straight (-2) * (.92)*(.67)
- result 3: we boat up/he misses a flush draw (+9) * (.08)*(.33)*(.8)
- result 4: we miss / he makes a flush (-2) * (.92)*(.33)*(.2)
- result 5: we boat up/he makes a flush (+10)*(.08)*(.33)*(.2)
- result 6: we miss/he misses a flush draw (+9)*(.92)*(.33)*(.8)

Total: +1.6 bets

If he never bluffs the river, and we still pay off every time, we're +1.36 bets

Strategy #2: Call turn, fold river unimproved
If he's bluffing 100% of his missed flush draws, we're -.14 by calling and folding the river.
If he bluffs 50%, we're +0.95 bets

So it seems like if we expect our opponent to play turned flush draws in this manner (and he has a flush draw this often), calling turn/river unimproved seems ok.

Strategy #3: raise/call turn, check/fold river unimproved (assuming our opponent doesn't bluff)
We're +0.37 bets

Note that these are very optimistic assumptions -- we're assuming that our opponent could hold any 2 hearts in the deck when he bets out on the turn. If we assume our opponent has a straight 80% of the time and a flush draw 20%, calling down is still ok at +0.5 bets; raising and getting 3bet on the turn becomes a disaster (-.84). Calling and folding becomes an option vs an opponent who never bluffs the river, but call/calling remains a reasonable option.

So in conclusion:
raising turn = bad
calling down = ok, but only if your opponent might donk a flush draw a reasonable % (like, at least 15% or so) and not just the nuts.

the pot size seems off:

pf it's 6 ways for 2 bets - 12 sb

on the flop, bet + 3 calls - 4 more sb = 16 sb

= 8 bb on turn, when guy donks into you (and i guess there were 2 folds?)

so you're getting 9:1, which makes it pretty close and probably a fine call with two pair, given implied odds if we boat up, the tiny chance he has worse two pair or something goofy, etc. if he leads a blank river i could see folding for sure

seems like even if an ace comes it's still just a call, s oit maybe better to just fold turn and save the two bets rather than draw to two clean outs.

seems like even if an ace comes it's still just a call, s oit maybe better to just fold turn and save the two bets rather than draw to two clean outs.

No, I think that's too mubsy, I would raise an Ace, the straight is the most likely possibility to be donking. 2nd is the heart draw, 3rd is some weirdly played set, which we beat and only then, very last with a very small percentage is AQ,AJ. They just don't play it that way, imo.

Plus combinatorically less likely

For Babar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gciFoEbOA8

Bella I think I am going to get a LOT of play out of that clip in the PLO forum.

great, i just spent half an hour watching Jaws clips on youtube

I've been messing with a hand range calculator of sorts, and this is what I'm coming up with.
- Let's assume our opponent is very loose, playing ~50% of his hands. I'm assuming any pair, any 2 broadway, any 2 suited, and some connected cards. The actual distribution doesn't really matter, as long as we lump in all the hands he could possibly have on the turn.
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o

Of this hand distribution, given the board and our 2 cards, he has:
A straight (Kx): 0.1807 => 18% [our equity = 12.5%]
Better 2 pair or a set (AQ,AJ,AA,QQ,JJ,TT): 0.0402 -> 4% [our equity = 10%]
Lower Straight (98): .0321 => 3% [12.5%]
Same 2 pair (AT): 0.0080 => 1% [50%]
Worse 2 pair (QJ,QT,JT): 0.0422 => 4% [90%]
A heart draw (xhyh): 0.0863 => 9% [80%]
Something else: 0.6104

Let's assume that he wouldn't play "something else" in this manner. Therefore, our opponents' rebalanced holdings are:
A-hi Straight: 47%
Better 2pair/set: 10% (probably way less likely - most people raise big pairs preflop)
Low Straight: 8%
Same Hand: 2% (unlikely, but low percentage anyways)
Worse 2pair: 10% (probably not likely - i think people check/call with these hands)
Heart draw: 23%

Even if our opponent could have any 2 hearts, he still has the ace high straight at least twice as often.

Pot should be like 7BB on the turn right? I see 15SB after flop = 7.5BB on the turn (minus rake => 7BB). After villain's turn bet, we're getting 8:1 immediate odds.

Let's say he's only betting a flush draw (33%) or the nut straight in this situation (67%), and will follow up with a river valuebet/bluff 100% if we don't raise the turn. Let's also assume that he'll bet/call the river if an ace or T comes. However, if we raise the turn, he'll 3bet w/ the straight and call with the flush draw (but not bluff the river). I'm also ignoring chops (3 kings left)

Strategy #1: Call turn, call river (raise if we boat up)
- result 1: we boat up/he has a straight (+10) * (.08)*(.67)
- result 2: we miss / he has a straight (-2) * (.92)*(.67)
- result 3: we boat up/he misses a flush draw (+9) * (.08)*(.33)*(.8)
- result 4: we miss / he makes a flush (-2) * (.92)*(.33)*(.2)
- result 5: we boat up/he makes a flush (+10)*(.08)*(.33)*(.2)
- result 6: we miss/he misses a flush draw (+9)*(.92)*(.33)*(.8)

Total: +1.6 bets

If he never bluffs the river, and we still pay off every time, we're +1.36 bets

Strategy #2: Call turn, fold river unimproved
If he's bluffing 100% of his missed flush draws, we're -.14 by calling and folding the river.
If he bluffs 50%, we're +0.95 bets

So it seems like if we expect our opponent to play turned flush draws in this manner (and he has a flush draw this often), calling turn/river unimproved seems ok.

Strategy #3: raise/call turn, check/fold river unimproved (assuming our opponent doesn't bluff)
We're +0.37 bets

Note that these are very optimistic assumptions -- we're assuming that our opponent could hold any 2 hearts in the deck when he bets out on the turn. If we assume our opponent has a straight 80% of the time and a flush draw 20%, calling down is still ok at +0.5 bets; raising and getting 3bet on the turn becomes a disaster (-.84). Calling and folding becomes an option vs an opponent who never bluffs the river, but call/calling remains a reasonable option.

So in conclusion:
raising turn = bad
calling down = ok, but only if your opponent might donk a flush draw a reasonable % (like, at least 15% or so) and not just the nuts.

the range you gave is pretty ridiculous. How exactly does he have a heart draw?

the range you gave is pretty ridiculous. How exactly does he have a heart draw?

I was trying to figure out the max % opponent could have a flush draw on the turn if his starting range contained all suited hands + other random stuff such a player might play.

If you start throwing out all the crappy flush draws, Kx starts to dominate his turn range to the point that he'll have a straight so often that we don't have odds to call a river bet. Our opponent would have to be kinda odd and spazzy for us to want to pay off on the river.