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Turned flush draw on paired board

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ThierryHenry

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1105 posts
Joined 12/2007

SB is 32/22/1.9. 3Bets 18% from the SB.
BB is 29/21/1.8. He does have a high fold to flop cbet at 35%.

Can a fold be justified or should I just call?

Poker Stars $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1266331
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO posts a big blind (1 SB)

Pre Flop: (2.333 SB) Hero is MP with J Club K Club
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop: (10 SB) 9 Spade 9 Club 5 Heart (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls

Turn: (6.5 BB) 8 Club (3 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero...

Posted about 2 years ago

obadonke

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1647 posts
Joined 03/2009

how is 35% fold to flop cbet *high* ? since we only hit flop about 33% of the time, that means he's calling on the flop on half of the remaining boards that don't pair his holecards.

I'm guessing BBs range is more likely an over pair, 9x, 5x or 8x than AClubxClub. Not sure how we determine likelihood of SB raising. I tend to be optimistic and think SB is going to shut down now which would give us just the right price to call without factoring in implieds.

Is there any merit in 3betting here (and giving up on the river if we miss)? Wondering if it might shut both players up on the turn but at the same time make them more likely to call a river bet on a club. Just a thought....

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the consensus will be to fold because the laggy SB behind us is more likely to raise than call and we may not get any more value on the river from worse hands when we hit the flush.

Posted about 2 years ago

giancarlo055

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120 posts
Joined 08/2009

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict the consensus will be to fold because the laggy SB behind us is more likely to raise than call and we may not get any more value on the river from worse hands when we hit the flush.



+1, I like obadonke's assessment. I think 3-betting this spot is a little too aggressive, especially if SB may be capping

Posted about 2 years ago

jmc999

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52 posts
Joined 07/2008

I'm not familiar at all with 3/6 limit, but what do we expect the BB to have in this spot?

He called 3 bets cold preflop, so shouldn't we tend to discount 9x 8x 5x hands unless we're talking about 55/88/99? He should have TT+ a lot when he raises the turn(?)

We should be able to extract one bet from at least one player when we hit our flush, right?
How often would hitting a K be good as well?

Posted about 2 years ago

ThierryHenry

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1105 posts
Joined 12/2007

He called 3 bets cold preflop, so shouldn't we tend to discount 9x 8x 5x hands unless we're talking about 55/88/99? He should have TT+ a lot when he raises the turn(?)


I think he would likely cap TT+ preflop, especially JJ+.

Posted about 2 years ago




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