Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

hi guys and gals
im bondsee

i have been playing poker for about 10 years on and off. i recently started drawing disability and its not enough to live on with 3 kids and a mortgage. i had put 50 dollars on about a year ago and just messing around at night after kids got to bed for an hour or two i would play 1.10 sitngos i had run this up to 140. in january i started my quest.i started playing .05/.10 full ring limit holdem and have moved up to now playing .50/1.00. i cashed out 200 to get a DC subscription and holdem manager.
i was running hot until recently as much as 9+ bb/100 but its around 4.7.now with just under 12000 hands played.
i want to know what variance i should expect to run into and what my optimal bankroll should be and actually what limit i should be shooting for with my goal being to make around 400 a month playing only around 2500 to 5000 hands a week playing 3 or 4 tables at a time. of coarse making more would be good and the months that i dont make that wont break the budget.

i could go on and on but i'll stop here
thanks to all for responding

bondsee

Well, I don't play .5/1 so I can't speak to expected win rates at that level, but!

Bear in mind that your goal is to withdraw 400 big bets a month, while playing 15000-20000 hands a month. Let's say you're pwning at 2/100 long term. That means that if you play 20k hands a month, your effective win rate is 0. Your total earnings are $0. Your risk of ruin, longterm, is 100%.

I don't mean to discourage you. By all means, play poker and use the money when you need it. I've been unemployed for 5 months and living off a combination of unemployment and my rakeback. I know how nice it is to have a little something extra.

Just be sure thought that you have a bankroll you're comfortable with. tbh, with your goals, I would want $1k. That sounds nuts. I've played 2/4 with a $400 br before and never gone broke. But you've got to realize that you never ever keep your winnings, therefore you never really win. That money vanishes from your roll. So when you do lose, and you will lose, you'll be faced with the choice of replenishing your roll or pulling out that $400 at the end of the month.

So I guess what I'm saying is, run like jesus! Run hot, run up your roll, move up fast, get a coach, and get to stakes where you can sustainably withdraw.

Or be prepared for the crash and accept that it's a part of the ride. There's no shame in bustoing a roll. If you get six good months ($400x6) out of a $500 bankroll, then bust it the 7th month, that wasn't a bad use of $500! hell of a lot better than your bank will give you these days.

Good luck.

the first part of what cas said is really important.

1-2BB per 100 hands is a pretty great winrate. 4.7 is not sustainable.

You will need to put in a lot more time at the tables to have a chance to make as many bets as youre hoping for each month.

Hi,

welcome bondsee

cas and LQ (must have lost a propbet judging by the avatar): I think bondsee means $400, not 400BB. I think the question is what stakes he needs to play to hit the target of $400 per month.

so, 20000 hands a month. we're saying 1BB/100 is a respectable winrate (after rake) at higher limits so, assuming bondsee makes the grade, he can expect to make 200BB from 20000 hands on average.

So, lowest stake bondsee needs to be rolled for each month after deductions and beat consistently is $1/2.

it's right on the line though and there will be months where this doesn't happen so its probably advisable to shoot higher - $2/4 or even $3/6.

cas and LQ (must have lost a propbet judging by the avatar): I think bondsee means $400, not 400BB. I think the question is what stakes he needs to play to hit the target of $400 per month.

$400 at .5/1 is 400 BBs

$400 at .5/1 is 400 BBs

Yes obviously but that doesn't affect my reply?

Don't forget about rakeback. On stars, 20k hands of .5/1 should net you about a hundred bucks. Not sure what it works out to on FTP, but if my calculations are correct it should be closer to 175.

(I should clarify - that Stars figure assumes you cash out your FPPs every month for the bonus. You'll get more if you save up for the bigger bonuses)

Yes obviously but that doesn't affect my reply?

ah i see now

Looks like the DCers have your questions covered, so I just wanted to say Holla! Welcome to the Party!
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