Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

in a 3 bet pot, you almost always have enough outs/equity to peel the flop.

in a 3 bet pot, you almost always have enough outs/equity to peel the flop.

im really not sure i agree with this comment, i think certainly on most A high flops with only backdoor outs just giving up is the best option a lot.

If the jack hits we gain at most 1 bet from a check raise on the turn, the only few exceptions being the times he calls the check raise with like AK, or one of the few other worse hands that can still call. Also we only get that bet from worse hands that ALSO fire again. We this line we lose 2-3 bets against AJ-AQ, KQ-KJ, QJ, JT, JJ+.

This is too pessimistic. If your estimate of villains strategy is correct, why do you XR the turn? If one of our cards hit a str8-draw will be present, so he will have to guess with his PP. If you claim he folds them 100%, I say we XR any T or K and make a nice profit.

in a 3 bet pot, you almost always have enough outs/equity to peel the flop.

Without BDFD in this hand I think we should fold.

I got the same result. I kind of recalling me saying something mean to you about being unable to stove earlier? Sorry about that, pretty nitty by me . As u might have noticed my mood swings quite a bit up and down.

Anyway the next step is to weight how many outs we have on the flop. We say that the BDFD give about 1 out (unless villain holds a flush draw too), and BDSD 0.5 outs.

|combos || outs|
55-88: | 24 || 7.5|
99: | 3 || 4.5 |
TT | 6 ||4 | (discounting BDSD)
JJ: | 3 ||1.5|
AA-QQ |15 || 1.5|

A7-A8 |32 || 7.5|
A9 |12 || 4.5|
AT |16 || 4|
AJ |12 || 4.5|
AQ |12 || 1.5|
AK |16 || 7.5|

K9s |3 || 4.5|
KTs |4 || 6.5 | (discounting some frrom KsTs)
KJ | 12 || 4.5|
KQ |12 || 1.5|

QTs |3 || 1.5|
QJ |12 || 1.5|

JTs | 3 || 4|
==============================
| 200 || -|

Average amount of outs: 4.7

(This is calculated by making a weighted sum of the combos and heir outs and then devide by the total number of combos. Like 4.7~= (24*7.5+3*4.5+...)/200 )


Getting 8.333:1 this is super close, but I feel it is a peel. Weighing the prbabliliy he checks and/or bluffing equity is really tough. Should we call it a peel for now?

This is such a good exercise. Good job Sushi! Frequently taking the time to figure out how many outs we have vs a reasonable range is pretty huge.

I think its a peel btw. From Sushi's math it looks superclose and if villain is solid it might be a fold. But a few factors can make this a pretty nice +EV peel. First of all there is the chance of getting free cards. Second there is the possibilty of wining UI against players who folds too much - when we turn a draw we can semibluff.

in a 3 bet pot, you almost always have enough outs/equity to peel the flop.

anyone who thinks I am nuts here, get out your poker stove, pick some ranges and go to work.

I am interested in what you find. I am not sayng 100%, I am saying its a good rule of thumb,
and with all the factors needed to think about while playing poker,
as I learned from gazhen,

any time we can simplify(in this case meaning fall back on previously figured out situations similar), its a good idea.

why is Oink such a good player? one, he is smart to begin with..lol...true.
but...he has done the work.

or in life in general, hard work will eventually beat natural "lazy" talent.

yeah i think peeling a flop like this has a lot to do with hero's post flop skill and villains tendencies.

i havent really been semi bluffing the turn a lot in my play.

also i think i just realised i play very straightforward after getting 3bet and get stuck on level 1 thinking, i suck big time in these spots..(im going to have a look at my HH's to see how much i fold in these spots.) this could be a 'aha' moment...

does anyone ever donk the turn if they pick up a gutter OESD or FD?

or is a c/r better?