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Semi-bluff in family pot?

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grandmofftarkin

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493 posts
Joined 04/2011

Like 13 hands at the table, so no real specific reads except sb is 47/7 over about 100ish hands with a wtsd 30%. Rest of table has been like 45/10 except for PFR who is 54/31. Y'all play flop and turn differently? I felt like I'm pretty happy if anyone folds any Ahigh/Khigh/better Qhigh's...


Merge - $0.50/$1 (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3


SB posts SB $0.25, Hero posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has QHeart 4Heart

UTG raises to $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($5.00, 5 players) JHeart 6Heart 6Diamond
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50, fold, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, CO calls $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($8.50, 3 players) 2Club
SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, fold, SB calls $1.00

River: ($10.50, 2 players) 9Diamond
SB checks, Hero?

Posted 12 months ago

SIide

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2403 posts
Joined 12/2008

Pots huge and you only have 1 more player to get through by the river. I fire again as he only has to fold a few better hands to make a bet profitable. I wouldn't bet KThh for example. Not sure if I would barrel Q4 against 2 opponents on this river.

Posted 12 months ago

Entity

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8057 posts
Joined 11/2006

Pot is too big not to bet here. His most likely hand is a Jack of some sorts, but when you give him all suited Aces (other than AQhh/AKhh most likely), I think it becomes a bet. I'm doing rough back of the napkin math here, but there are probably something in the range of ~60 combos of Jx/other pairs that you might expect to call, and a handful of Ax/Axhh/Kxhh hands that you want to fold out. You only need the bluff to work ~10% of the time to eek out a profit here, so he'd have to have > 6 combos of higher missed flush draws that he folds for a bet to be ok.

Even if we increase his calling range pretty significantly to include lots of pocket pairs and a wider range of Jx hands, I think it's probably still a bet. If he calls down with Ace high it's a check and give up though.

Rob

Posted 12 months ago

BigBadBabar

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4433 posts
Joined 03/2007




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