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BB is 44/4/0/2.1 over 55hands

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1772166
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Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with Q 8
Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) K K 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) J (2 players)
BB checks, [color=red]Hero bets??

PF was a little loose. Q9o is usaully the bottom of my range from the CO.
standard Cbet on the flop I think
When it was checked to me on the turn, I thought I should B/F due to the fact that the if the villian raises I think I am beaten and I am only drawing to 3outs by the river on a drawy board with the pair making a striaght on the board possible.

I wouldnt fire the flop and check the turn, its a dry board villains range is most likely some PP and Ax's, the turn is a good card to barrell although if i bet the flop i would barrel almost any turn card. We have no showdown equity with Q high so i dont want to get to showdown with my hand so on the flop i decide what is the most +EV play, giving up or fighting for the pot with multiple barrells.

I would fire the turn and ch back most rivers. I would expect a 44/4 to peel with a ton of weak hands on this flop which are going to fold to a turn bet. Very is fold if C/R'ed on the turn.

I would fire the turn and ch back most rivers. I would expect a 44/4 to peel with a ton of weak hands on this flop which are going to fold to a turn bet. Very is fold if C/R'ed on the turn.

Aren't most of the hands he's folding on the turn worse than ours?

Aren't most of the hands he's folding on the turn worse than ours?

Yeah, but with 3.25BB in the pot, you're reverse-freerolling yourself by checking and allowing him to check back with 76s, etc.

If you think this sort of OPP peels pretty light, I'd fire again and check back the river UI. If you think he's tight postflop, then checking the turn and folding the river is fine.

Rob

Sorry ... why are we playing Q8o?

Sorry ... why are we playing Q8o?

Q8o is good enough to raise playing a 4 handed limit game from the CO.

Agree with Slide and Rob on the double barrel...fire turn unless he plays fit or fold on the flop.

Yeah, but with 3.25BB in the pot, you're reverse-freerolling yourself by checking and allowing him to check back with 76s, etc.

I got lost at some point here... Hero's in position. If I'm putting in another bet in this pot I'm rather calling river than betting turn. The turn bet would be targeting Q9 specifically (ok maybe another Q8), anything better than that is not folding (unless triple barreled), and I'm not convinced Q9 should fold either. I'd think any Q is a pretty good valuecheck/bluffcatcher here as villain is not certain to bet his A highs or even his low pocket pairs, depending on the river.

I got lost at some point here... Hero's in position. If I'm putting in another bet in this pot I'm rather calling river than betting turn. The turn bet would be targeting Q9 specifically (ok maybe another Q8), anything better than that is not folding (unless triple barreled), and I'm not convinced Q9 should fold either. I'd think any Q is a pretty good valuecheck/bluffcatcher here as villain is not certain to bet his A highs or even his low pocket pairs, depending on the river.

My phrasing was off.

When you check back, you have to expect your opponent to bet the river as a bluff some % of the time. You also have to expect his range of hands to improve some % of the time, and to bet for value when you check back. This leaves you not being able to call a bet on the river, so you're reverse-freerolling yourself.

You aren't targeting Q9 specifically here. You're targeting 76s, 87s, T9s - hands that peel the flop light. I'm not saying you SHOULD bet, but that you SHOULD bet if your opponent peels the flop light. If he calls with a relatively tight range of Ax, 5x, pocket pairs, etc., you should consider checking back and folding the river UI.

Checking back the turn and intending to call the river, vs. a relatively passive opponent, is the worst option. He's not bluffing the river often enough for you to call UI. Checking back and folding the river might be fine, betting the turn and checking the river might be fine. What's most important here is your reasoning behind the line you take.

I'm advocating taking a line of betting the turn and checking the river when my opponent has plenty of hands that have two cards in between K and 5 when they call this flop. What this does is 2 things:

1) Prevents me from a small % chance of being bluffed off the best hand.
2) Prevents my opponents from catching up for free.

Additionally, betting the turn more often than checking the turn makes your opponent's flop calls even more incorrect. If you're the sort who checks back the turn often with hands like this, I know I can see a turn more often and correctly, because you'll let me see the river at a cheap price too often. This doesn't apply for this specific opponent (since it's unlikely he's working hard to exploit you), but it's definitely another consideration.

Rob

My phrasing was off.

When you check back, you have to expect your opponent to bet the river as a bluff some % of the time. You also have to expect his range of hands to improve some % of the time, and to bet for value when you check back. This leaves you not being able to call a bet on the river, so you're reverse-freerolling yourself.

You aren't targeting Q9 specifically here. You're targeting 76s, 87s, T9s - hands that peel the flop light. I'm not saying you SHOULD bet, but that you SHOULD bet if your opponent peels the flop light. If he calls with a relatively tight range of Ax, 5x, pocket pairs, etc., you should consider checking back and folding the river UI.

Checking back the turn and intending to call the river, vs. a relatively passive opponent, is the worst option. He's not bluffing the river often enough for you to call UI. Checking back and folding the river might be fine, betting the turn and checking the river might be fine. What's most important here is your reasoning behind the line you take.

I'm advocating taking a line of betting the turn and checking the river when my opponent has plenty of hands that have two cards in between K and 5 when they call this flop. What this does is 2 things:

1) Prevents me from a small % chance of being bluffed off the best hand.
2) Prevents my opponents from catching up for free.

Additionally, betting the turn more often than checking the turn makes your opponent's flop calls even more incorrect. If you're the sort who checks back the turn often with hands like this, I know I can see a turn more often and correctly, because you'll let me see the river at a cheap price too often. This doesn't apply for this specific opponent (since it's unlikely he's working hard to exploit you), but it's definitely another consideration.

Rob

oh wow...thanks for that!

I'll continue by saying that it's been a while since I've done real line analyzis. So if I'm way off here I'm more than happy to hear about it

First of all, I'm starting to like check back flop. But let's leave that discussion at another time

If you're not betting turn for value or as a bluff, then it has to be for protection? If BB defends 60% of hands and peels everything on the flop, I'm getting hero at 28% equity. (Yes he might CR some good hands on the flop - not necessarily though on this flop- but he's also fold some of his no-backdoors-crap, so I think the 28% figure is in the right ball park.) If villain happens to have a 6-outer he's got 14% in a 3BB pot. I don't get it. Hero should have plenty of pairs and A-highs to "punish" the light peels and some actual bluffing hands to go with those.

"This leaves you not being able to call a bet on the river, so you're reverse-freerolling yourself."
I'm not taking that as a given. It all depends on you turn ranges obviously but I'm guessing Q8 should be part of the bluff catching range, maybe based on the river card. A T, 9 or 7 really kills hero's equity.

The flop wasn't good for hero and the turn was awful. A one-barrel bluff is not going to work. The CO steal started at the bottom of hero's range and the hand hasn't improved... but still has some showdown value. I still don't see any other way to make money on this hand than hoping for a cheap showdown, possibly calling off a river bet. If you think villain isn't likely to bluff (so bluff catching is out of the question), then Q8 will still win 28% of the time when two streets get checked down.

Couple things I think your not considering Pasita. There's a good possibility villain doesn't bluff the brick rivers enough for us to bluff catch, but still bluffs some, say 15%. In this case, we have to fold, but are still sacrificing equity.

Also, when we bet this turn with Q8, we still have equity against hands like 5x Jx and would rather a bet go in on the turn, then on the river against these hands. If we are C/R'ed, I would suspect we have close to 0% equity against his range and so we're not sacrificing much in denying ourselves seeing a river.

I think that even though a turn bet isn't a value bet per-say, we still probably gain more from betting the turn (against someone who peels lightly), then checking and having to make a river decision.

Couple things I think your not considering Pasita. There's a good possibility villain doesn't bluff the brick rivers enough for us to bluff catch, but still bluffs some, say 15%. In this case, we have to fold, but are still sacrificing equity.

If we bet the turn with an equity deficit into a 3BB pots it's not exactly free either. If we bet it with a 0-6 outer it gets to be pretty expensive.

BTW lots of what I babble here could be reversed with proper reads. However, with only 55 hands on the villain, I'm not ready to make very huge generalizations on his postflop style.

If villain bluffs less than optimally we need to fold, no problem there. (It also means we get to realize our showdown equity in an inexpensive way very often). I don't have that info, though, so I try to look for the optimal line myself. Not saying that I have it nailed, though.

Also, if we're so worried about being bluffed off our equity, how come no one is worried about the draws opening on the turn... I wouldn't assume hero has 0 equity against a CR.

If the villain is passive he'll not have a ton of valuebetting hands on the river, the way the board is developing. King, Jack, TT-66. He might not valuebet a 5 or even some of the higher pocket pairs, depending on the river card. All of this means he'll also not have many bluffs in an optimal range. So finally, pretty often there's not going to be any betting on the river, and hero gets to see whether his Q high was the best hand. If there is no more betting, it actually is the best hand pretty often.

I guess what I'm saying is Q-high is one of the worst hands to bet on this turn, IMHO. It's seldom the best hand, and never makes a better hand fold. Give me a T8 which still wants to win the pot immediately and I'm much happier bet-folding (since now calling river is not an option), still happy to make all the trash (but now also Q-high!) fold.

There are lots of valuable info in this thread, I'm just going to try to address them one at a time:

1) Please be more clear about which line you are advocating. For example, what Entity says is that he thinks that b/f turn with the plan of checking back river, is better than checking turn planning to call the river. If you disagree, make sure you are only comparing those two lines. On the other hand, if you want to argue that there is a superior line to both those lines (which is what I think pasita is trying to say), make sure you make those arguments as clear as possible. You are planning the actions of both turn and river, so straight up hot-cold equity is not enough.

2) This is a response to pasita. If you think betting the turn with T8 is good (ie at least better than checking and giving up), you should not be unhappy to bet Q8 also. Remember you are folding out the same hands no matter what you have, so you don't lose any value by betting a better hand, unless your villain is going to c/r turn as a bluff or donk the river very often, then it denies you the intended number of bets going into the pot. Given your opponent is passive, that is quite unlikely.

A valid reason of wanting to check back the turn is if you think you can get more value by inducing river bluffs (thus the term "value check"). However, you already show that your equity is low, so there really is very little value inducing bluff (because you will not induce enough for your river call to be highly +EV). In short, with Q8 you don't want to give up, yet the hand is not good enough to bluff catch, so you bet.

A hand like A8 will likely be a good candidate to check turn.