Beginner Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

limp/capper is fish at table like 50/20, something like that. does weird spazzy things
btn is SIide, he plays ok.

at the time on the turn i thought that SIide had capped preflop...
advice, tips, whatever for this hand would be appreciated. i was confused about the turn, and then the river as well.

Poker Stars $2.00/$4 Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1462837
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO calls, BTN raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, CO caps!, BTN calls, Hero calls

Flop: (12.5 SB) 7 Q A (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: (6.25 BB) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets, CO folds, BTN calls

River: (8.25 BB) 4 (2 players)
Hero ?

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

is your turn for value or bluff?

at the time it was for thin value because i thought SIide had been the capper, but i dunno, can we call it a merge?

at the time on the turn i thought that SIide had capped preflop...
advice, tips, whatever for this hand would be appreciated. i was confused about the turn, and then the river as well.

The flop is pretty wet, the player who you think is the capper is both competent and last to act, and there is a chance for a squeeze play, so I think a flop c-bet is 100% standard at these stakes. That is, it is arguably the most +EV action for BTN.

There are dozens of possible reasons for the flop check but it is fine to use Occam's Razor and say that, until there is evidence to the contrary, the reason that is most probable is that BTN whiffed the flop.

That said, I think we know that whatever we do on the turn, it must be part of a turn/river plan. That is, don't bet the turn and then be left to wonder what to do if the flush card comes on the river; we have to get to the point that we say to ourselves we are bet/calling the turn and check/calling the river UI, or maybe check/calling the turn and folding to a heart on the river, or whatever.

I played around with PokerStove and discovered that there is a huge difference in Hero's equity depending on whether or not an opponent has the possibility of top pair. I did not say they had top pair, just the possibility of it. If CO and BTN have top 35% hands, Hero/CO/BTN equity is 18/41/41 on the turn. If neither CO nor BTN have an Ace (but otherwise have top 35%) equity is 37/31/31. On the river, Hero/BTN equity is 60/40 provided BTN does not have an Ace.

This helps a lot, because it means for EV purposes, we do not need to worry about middle pair or the flush draw (or even a set), provided that we are happy with the assumption that neither CO nor BTN have top pair. It also helps us to see that the worst river cards are actually K or J, not a heart.

So I like the plan of bet/calling the flop and bet/calling any non-K-or-J on the river, with the intention of losing maybe 40% of the time.

Do we think that at $2/4 somebody would bluff-raise this river often enough for us to bet/call? (Instead of b/f, or x/c.)