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3BetSuccess% wth?

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Estist

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Joined 09/2010

Okay so I'm playing with my HEM2 analysing spots etc., then I notice this 3bet sucess% overall stat. I add it to my session report and when I look at the result, my jaw drops. 45.7% over 26k hands at 25NL? Wth? So does this mean my 3bet "bluffs" aren't profitable?

Posted about 1 year ago

Deets

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541 posts
Joined 11/2010

So many people call pre and then fold. Have you checked out your cbet success% in 3bet pots?

Posted about 1 year ago

zachd2323

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2852 posts
Joined 04/2010

Yeah I'm not really a big fan of this stat. I mean if we 3bet AA and villain folds is that a successful 3bet? I also agree with what Deets said about possibly having a -EV 3bet, but cbetting makes it +EV. There's a lot more to consider than this number. It doesn't really tell us a lot when looking at it on the whole imo. It seems like a much better idea to look at 3bet pots individually and see where you are making mistakes.

Posted about 1 year ago

SCS

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6250 posts
Joined 06/2008

All it tells you is how often the field, as a whole, is folding to your 3 bets. It tells you nothing about the EV of your 3 bet, because often times you are doing it for value and don't want a fold, you usually have some equity when you are bluffing and villain calls you.

If you want to know if your 3 bets are profitable then look at your winrate.

Posted about 1 year ago

Estist

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1038 posts
Joined 09/2010

CBet success is about 55% and it normally ranges from 45-50%.

My overall 3bet play is profitable, but isn't this suprising? I would have expected this to be 70% at least? Shouldn't this change my 3bet bluff range?

Posted about 1 year ago

SavingForBenz

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648 posts
Joined 12/2011

CBet success is about 55% and it normally ranges from 45-50%.

My overall 3bet play is profitable, but isn't this suprising? I would have expected this to be 70% at least? Shouldn't this change my 3bet bluff range?



Shouldn't that mean if your betting 50% pot (has to work 33%) of the time. Basically means your making quite a lot of money. +22%.

Posted about 1 year ago

Shippopotamus

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140 posts
Joined 07/2011

This is not really surprising at all. The breakeven for 3b is around 67%, but when you are called, you still have your hand's equity vs theirs, which is usually at the minimum ~35%. If your success rate is 70% it probably means you're not 3betting enough. Also, your 3betting range have no direct influence over your success rate, your 3b frequency does though. Instead of thinking about how successful your 3bs are from a global perspective, think about how it contributes to your EV vs each player. Poker is not about raising X% from this position or 3b Y% from this position, it is about tailoring your game to best exploit villain's weaknesses.

Posted about 1 year ago

improva

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3770 posts
Joined 02/2008

CBet success is about 55% and it normally ranges from 45-50%.

My overall 3bet play is profitable, but isn't this suprising? I would have expected this to be 70% at least? Shouldn't this change my 3bet bluff range?



I'm not surprised - it looks like a very standard avg.
I don't expect your 3bet ranges to be static, so I'm not sure how to answer your question,

Posted about 1 year ago

Estist

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1038 posts
Joined 09/2010

Okay so when we have an unknown, who looks like a reg, I usually work on the basis of the average profile of a reg and than revise that as we play more and more against eachother. So to date I thought that the typical reg would be folding around 70%. So from time to time I'd throw in a 3bet with K9o (my 3bet% is around 8%).

Let's say villain calls a 3bet with TT-22,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo my equity with K9o is 36.83%. With the blocker and a 70% sucess I thought it would be good enough to make a profitable 3bet bluff.

But if the success is only around 50% I think I'd need to fold K9o and start 3betting more hands like 89s (41% equity) and a better playability post-flop.

Am I thinking along the right lines?

Posted about 1 year ago

improva

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Estist

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1038 posts
Joined 09/2010

Let's say BU open and we 3bet in the BB, this is where I feel I 3bet the most as a bluff.

Posted about 1 year ago

improva

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Change your assumption to ~ 60% and your actual equity (which is different from the Pokerstove numbers) to 25% or so.

Posted about 1 year ago

SCS

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Joined 06/2008

What do you think villain does with 44 on an AQ8 flop facing a cbet, after being 3 bet preflop?

Posted about 1 year ago

Estist

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1038 posts
Joined 09/2010

The more I look into this the more I get confused Frown

How did you come up with those % Improva? If I take a button opening range of +/- 36%: 2+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

and he calls with 40% (i.e. folds 60%) of his range say: 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+

Then my equity with K9o is 35% and 98s is 39%. 25% would be 98s vs TT+,AKs,AKo.

But when I think about it this doesn't make sense. Like they will problably open a lot wider from the button than that range, and as such should be folding to a 3bet even more. Also I'm not sure that a regular will call with that 40% range unless they call with a range like this:

22+, ATs+, KJs+, K9s, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, AKo

So if the true average figure is around 45% to the 60% that you suggest, does that mean that their range is still wide even in 3bet pots?

All this because of a JJ hand lol Wink

Posted about 1 year ago

improva

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3770 posts
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