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I bought a lotto ticket once - didn't win so now I'm convinced it's RIGGED!!!!

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What is the probability of winning this megamillions jackpot?

Actually I looked it up instead of being lazy and around 1 in 175,000,000. Comparable to the Euromillions over here around 1 in 115,000,000.

I will never play the euromillions individually because 100 schillion billion pounds is not much more use to me that 1 million pounds.

In fact as the odds of the vanilla lotteries here too bad to play individually (around 1 in 14,000,000) I play in a syndicate of 21 people for £12 a month (for ~35 draws). It works out about right for me personally, because all the lottery draws pay out at least £1m, £47,000+ would make a big difference to me as a deposit for a flat. I'd much rather have lots of chances to win about £50k than a few to win £1m.

I'd prefer the syndicate to be around 15 though given property prices in London .

I don't know how to put that in utility economics terms but I'm happy with the way this syndicate scheme works.

My friend on the other hand is quite obsessed with lotteries but refuses to play in a syndicate because he's greedy and doesn't understand probability well. He also plays a lot of scratch cards online and offline despite my abuse about him doing this.

Edit to note I realise I'm not allowing for the small jackpots of £1,000,000 to be split before our syndicate. That would suck.

I bought a lotto ticket once - didn't win so now I'm convinced it's RIGGED!!!!

it is rigged actually... 76% house edge of rigged (assuming you hit the jackpot), 98% house edge of rigged realistically imo (hitting 4/6 numbers in Mega Millions aka The Big Game). it's about as close to literally burning money that someone can do while "gambling."

for people who are in a monthly syndicate, my suggestion is to go find yourself a nice three-card monte game instead. you'll get a lot more entertainment out of your money.

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hahaha, guess a lot think its a typo

hahaha, guess a lot think its a typo

I actually asked him what the over/under is on that joke either going over people's heads or people just assuming he spelled it wrong.

Big Lotto Jackpots: the easiest way to raise taxes.

I get the trampoline support pole.

lol you win then. nice one.

heading out to buy into office pool and buy other tickets for action-swapping with Dollar Bill. enjoying last day of not being super-rich.

it is rigged actually... 76% house edge of rigged (assuming you hit the jackpot), 98% house edge of rigged realistically imo (hitting 4/6 numbers in Mega Millions aka The Big Game). it's about as close to literally burning money that someone can do while "gambling."

math fail. this is why i play the lottery...

assuming 1/2% chance of winning (the top prize) is "realistic," the house edge is 93.2%.

Probability of hitting
0 - 0.01601774
1 - 0.00976692
2 - 0.00186036
3 - 0.00454275
=0.03218777

Return
0 - 0.01601774
1 - 0.01953383
2 - 0.00930182
3 - 0.02271376
=0.06756715
(1- 0.06756715) =0.93243285

even assuming 1/100% chance of winning (the top prize) is "realistic," the house edge is still 90.4%. to put this in perspective, blackjack using basic strategy has a house edge of < 1%. roulette (double zero) is 5.26%. slot machines are around 4-16%.

and with that said, i'm still gonna buy tickets cause the jackpot just went to 540M. fml.

it is rigged actually... 76% house edge of rigged (assuming you hit the jackpot), 98% house edge of rigged realistically imo (hitting 4/6 numbers in Mega Millions aka The Big Game). it's about as close to literally burning money that someone can do while "gambling."

for people who are in a monthly syndicate, my suggestion is to go find yourself a nice three-card monte game instead. you'll get a lot more entertainment out of your money.

It's not for entertainment as I never choose numbers, watch the draws or check numbers, just get an email if there is a prize. I would rather I didn't get emails unless it's a jackpot either.

havent read thorugh the whole thread but its very clear why people play (and maybe this is allready answered and im late)
its about there individual preference
say someone who has €400 as a total monthly income and he is offered head he gets €800, with tail he gets nothing. his ev of playing this game is obviously the same like of not playing this game
so the guy should be like "i dont care if i play or not" but he obviously wont be like that in reality and dont play because he looses everything (total risk aversion positive)

this is the opposite example of why people play lottery. because the total amount of money to loose doesnt matter for them, but the possible win is so life changing. they are okay with the -ev because of that (total risk aversion negative)

It's not for entertainment as I never choose numbers, watch the draws or check numbers, just get an email if there is a prize. I would rather I didn't get emails unless it's a jackpot either.

so maybe it's just your way of exposing yourself to a positive black swan event? like being a micro-scale venture capitalist? or maybe reverse insurance (insurance is usually -EV, or always -EV?). i actually kinda like that. i'm gonna use this line from now on.

havent read thorugh the whole thread but its very clear why people play (and maybe this is allready answered and im late)

this is the opposite example of why people play lottery. because the total amount of money to loose doesnt matter for them, but the possible win is so life changing. they are okay with the -ev because of that (total risk aversion negative)

http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/4-General-Discussion/topics/505281-A-feel-good-about-your-ga?#post_4435671

i think Prospect theory also explains why many people, given two choices of similar EV, are very willing to buy insurance but not lottery tickets.

say someone who has €400 as a total monthly income and he is offered head

Accepting is very +EV.

Accepting is very +EV.

you mean because 400 is like nothing anyway?

well this is the maximum people in germany can earn a month without having to pay something to the government. its sad but there are a lot who do that. one reason to never tell anyone how much poker earns for someone