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I have just checked up on my all time adjusted EV winnings in Hold Em Manager. The result was terrifying. I am running 5K above EV in 400k hands.

Does this mean that I am doomed? That I have to pay 5K to miss fortune no matter what?
I have all ready been running very shitty for months and it seems to continue.

It makes me wonder how miss fortune really calculate how much I owe her?

Because at other online sites I have been running bad. Does this mean that I really don't owe miss fortune anything? Or is there a miss fortune for every online site and do they ever talk together. Do I have to return to the sites where I lost to get back what they owe me according to EV?

For example: In live play at a Casino I lost the greatest pot I have ever played. There was 7K USD in the pot. I had a flush and opponent had toppair and nut FD when money got in on turn. I was 86 pct favourite or so but I lost?

Now does this even out what I owe miss fortune. Or will she only pay me back at the same Kasino after I have played thousands of hands there?

I hope this is not complete nonsense.

I hope this is not complete nonsense.

No no, by far not!!

But I guess you´re mis-estimating the character of miss fortune. Her only (!) job is to keep players in good mood, lulling them until they think "Hey, I got it!!" and then pull out the axe to end it all. That´s it. So, don´t get trapped by this bitch.

I hope this is not complete nonsense.

I mean this in the nicest possible way, but it is

streaks exist in the past, not the future. going forward, you are "expected" to neither be lucky nor unlucky regardless of how lucky you've been.

don't fall into this trap. it's a subtle form of tilt. luck never owes you anything and it doesn't comes back to collect debts, even if it seems like it does at times.

you could be running above EV in the sense of "all in EV" and running below EV in the sense of how often you've seen certain situations and had the opportunity to play certain players.

Well done for not looking at this in the last 400k hands , go back to that.

Well done for not looking at this in the last 400k hands , go back to that.

Imagine that you are flipping a coin and that the coin landed on tails on the last 3 flips. What is the likelihood that the coin will land on heads on the next flip?

Think about the mechanisms, complexities and implications involved if "fortune" operated in the way you're suggesting.

Well done for not looking at this in the last 400k hands , go back to that.

lol. That is probably good advice.

This is my favorite form of tilt I can't shake

But I mean, since the sites are rigged, it could make a difference if you are running bad, because probably the software detected that you are a losing player so I guess you should start limp/calling more because guys that do so seem to always hit runner runner straights

Imagine that you are flipping a coin and that the coin landed on tails on the last 3 flips. What is the likelihood that the coin will land on heads on the next flip?

This makes sense to me. Others had the same point. Do you all agree with the notion that everything that has been in the past doesn't effect any future outcome?

Another thought would be that EV would always even out after XXXXXXXX number of hands.

This makes sense to me. Others had the same point. Do you all agree with the notion that everything that has been in the past doesn't effect any future outcome?

Another thought would be that EV would always even out after XXXXXXXX number of hands.

variance over a sample is roughly variance per hand/sqrt(number of hands)

the more hands, the lower the variance. there will still be variance, it's just greatly reduced as n increases.

also, as StueysKid wrote and I think is worth repeating, running above EV doesn't mean you've been lucky overall. luck when all-in is one of many ways a person can run hot or cold.

Another thought would be that EV would always even out after XXXXXXXX number of hands.

This is just statistical semantics, you can't say that after 10 million hands EV will even out, what you can say is that after a certain threshold of hands the chance that your EV evens out with winnings is bigger then it doesn't even out.

Even tho a person might mean the same thing, often in statistics you are 'wrong' cause you formulated it wrongly.

Nothing has to even out, ever. It's just that you expect to land within a reasonable standard deviation of the expectation. OP never put 5k into perspective. If he was running +5k above while playing 1kNL, it would mean nothing since it's within a reasonable deviation. If this same amount was achieved playing 2NL, then holy cow, something is probably going on

Think about the mechanisms, complexities and implications involved if "fortune" operated in the way you're suggesting.

Awesome post.