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Okay so i was in a home game with a few people

We got to talking about moving up in today's games my friend said that he thinks if a nl400n or nl600 reg was given 1k and had to start at 20nl it would take him at least 6 months to a year to get back up again i instantly disagreed and thought it could be done in like a month (obv maybe that isn't true idk i was kinda drunk)

So he wants to bet me a pretty large amount that i cant start with 1k USD and in two months get to 13k or 32.5 bi's for 400.. if i lose the 1k i lose and rakeback can count towards total (this is the part that makes it hugely likely he loses imo)

He offered me 6-1

what do you guys think is that fair? whats the likely hood i win? someone told me they think i do it like 1/7 times...

Im pretty sure is doable but i could just be incredibly naive

Wow that's printing money for you as long as you can get in decent volume and not tilt too much.

Don't let them see this http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/bankroll_simulator/

A good place to start would be working what sort of hours and how many tables you would want to play. Also is it FR, 6max, heads up and how strict would the rules on BR management be?

How many hands are you able to put in in the time given?

just show him your graph.game set match 3bet

There was a guy on pokerstrategy who almost started a prop bet for $50-->$10k in a month with no rb, getting 5:1, but backed out because of no action I think. Getting 6:1 you must snap call this, given that you can put the hands in.

I mean there's no guarantee that you'd be successful because of variance, but getting 6-1 this extremely +ev for you.

Depends how much you're betting. I believe you said you normally play 10/20 or 25/50?

If this is the case then you would have to be betting a pretty large amount to make it worth your while to play that low. Idk what your winrates are at 10/20 and 25/50 but you could make 13k in a good day or so of grinding those stakes.

So yeah you would probably have to be betting like 10k at least to make this worth your while which I highly doubt friends would bet with eachother unless he's not really that good of a friend and/or loaded

Confirmed 13k is what you could make in a good day grinding 10/20 and 25/50.

Confirmed 13k is what you could make in a good day grinding 10/20 and 25/50.

I'm just trying to use an analogy like 2 months from 1k ==> 13k grinding micros and low stakes seems silly when you could make 13k in about 2.5 buy ins at 25/50. Obviously this may take longer than a day, lets say it takes a week. Even then it would make more sense to just play higher stakes...

Confirmed 13k is what you could make in a good day grinding 10/20 and 25/50.

k i just texted him saying idk he said oh what about 7-1 then i snap accepted i can start whenever i want but from date of commencement i have exactly 60 days to complete.

Mitch did you program that br thing cause it says 10k?

Mitch did you program that br thing cause it says 10k?

I believe he was trolling me

So yeah you would probably have to be betting like 10k at least to make this worth your while which I highly doubt friends would bet with eachother unless he's not really that good of a friend and/or loaded

its more than that but its worth it imo a couple of people are pooling moneys to try and hustle me they think...well when i say a couple like ten.

its more than that but its worth it imo a couple of people are pooling moneys to try and hustle me they think...

Lol seems sketchy. Good luck, since you're playing HS/nosebleeds now should be a fkin breeze.

Lol seems sketchy. Good luck, since you're playing HS/nosebleeds now should be a fkin breeze.

nah they are super trustworthy i have loaned money to like all of them and they have payed back like next day by wire.

haha anyways my friend just texted me they are all in the pub celebrating that i took the bet i have to win now!