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Poker Video: Misc/Other by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Brilliant

Aaron - Thanks for the video.

This might be the "it depends" variance question but I will ask it anyway.

Do you have any tips for distinguishing 'run bad' from 'playing poorly'?

Any filters in HEM? I kinda dont trust ALLIN EV....

cause in soooo many reg threads on poker forums you get the omg I runbad and every reg whinges about it.......so any hints that we might take - ok Digger you are not running bad u suck bro - or just ride it out man your in the 5% worst simults.....

meh I hope you get the jist of it.

Appreciate the insight Wilt.

Great vid, thanks WoT

Watching this vid makes me think: Why would someone become a live pro?
Do live pro's have such a huge edge on the field? Or do they have no idea 100K break-even hand strechtes happen, even with a significant edge?

Watching this vid makes me think: Why would someone become a live pro?
Do live pro's have such a huge edge on the field? Or do they have no idea 100K break-even hand strechtes happen, even with a significant edge?

I definitely agree with you, but the live pros will say they get a higher winrate live than we can get online and therefore will have fewer swings (there is certainly an element of truth here) however there's also quite an element of survivorship bias in live pros. You never hear about the guys who get fed up or can't make it financially after months and months of breaking even/losing. They just slip away unnoticed unless there's a 2+2 NVG thread saying "what happened to x pro who won y tournament and has done nothing since". You hear a lot about the guys who can constantly make it playing the biggest stakes though and the people who win lots of tournaments. While it's certainly more likely the people you constantly hear about are quite a bit better than those you don't, there are going to be a good chunk of people who have run way above and way below their expectation.

It's a brutal world out there.

WoT

Aaron - Thanks for the video.

This might be the "it depends" variance question but I will ask it anyway.

Do you have any tips for distinguishing 'run bad' from 'playing poorly'?

Any filters in HEM? I kinda dont trust ALLIN EV....

cause in soooo many reg threads on poker forums you get the omg I runbad and every reg whinges about it.......so any hints that we might take - ok Digger you are not running bad u suck bro - or just ride it out man your in the 5% worst simults.....

meh I hope you get the jist of it.

It's a tough question to answer. I'm going to get on the road and drive 15 hours back home soon, so I will do more thinking about it then and try to post again if I can think of something meaningful to look for in HEM, however there is something I meant to talk about in the video that I can't remember if I mentioned or not (I hope I did) and that's the following idea:

When thinking about how you can tell whether or not you are ready to move up or whether you are running badly or playing badly, you should focus on how many identifiable mistakes/leaks/misunderstandings you can find in your opponents. All of us, regardless of skill level, are looking to improve but how can we best distinguish ourselves from one another?

We've seen in this video that winrate is a total joke of a stat yet people quote it for gospel all the time (even v successful "named" pros). I agree with you that ALL-IN EV also isn't gospel, however it is one way that can certainly indicate a level of run bad or run good as it's undeniable (unless the computer program is bugged) that whether or not you are winning or losing more than your share in ALL IN spots is an INDICATOR of how you're running over all. Of course it says nothing about how many times you cooler your opponents with AA > KK or set > set or how often the fish sits on your right in a 6m game or whether or not your shot taking goes good or bad and the hundreds of more subtle ways you can run good or run bad. There is no way to calculate it definitively.

IMO the best way to get an idea of your edge in the games you play is trying to identify as many spots as you can where you must be making $ (or saving $) long term. You see a reg miss a value bet you would make (vs yourself or vs another player). You see a reg go broke in a spot you wouldn't or bluff in a spot you wouldn't or whatever. Look for these situations and judge yourself. If you aren't sure, post about the spot on DC or ask a trusted friend his opinion. Sometimes other regs will be doing things you aren't doing but you should be. Other times they are playing like garbage. It's your job to distinguish between the two and the more spots you can say "I'm doing <THIS> better than most other regs in my games" then the more likely it is you have a solid edge. Along those lines, you want to look for as many different edges as you can find, whether it's taking better notes on videos you watch or eating right or exercising to induce optimal brain function or river checkraise bluffing in a spot most wouldn't, etc.

One of the toughest things about poker is that so many things aren't easily quantifiable, yet we must do our best to get an idea of what's right. Running good or bad is no different. Look for as many indicators as you can to determine why you are downswinging (or upswinging!).

WoT

I always can't help but wonder how much this variance, or in other words luck, is involved in who makes it to the higher stakes and who doesn't. I mean there are obviously lots of factors, but how much of this is variance? I mean even if you run 0.5BB over EV in like a million hands (this is often 1,5-2 years for a standard player) and this is very likely looking at these data.

It can be so much easier to look up and look at the game more positive also inducing you more to learn/study. I feel like results can have a very big influence in how much we study.

awesome awesome vid, definitely needed this, would have liked a little more focus on limit tho =/

Really great video and thanks for the site link very cool.

awesome awesome vid, definitely needed this, would have liked a little more focus on limit tho =/

maybe one of the limit guys could do a similar thing for the min bettors. I don't feel very qualified to comment on it specifically but many of the ideas of variance and swings carry over.

cause in soooo many reg threads on poker forums you get the omg I runbad and every reg whinges about it.......

the players who run way above their expectation won't post it, because then the people would say: "you suck, you are just a luckbox", and no one wants to admit that he got lucky over a big sample (even he is a very skilled player)

if you run below EV you can always say: "I don't win, because the others are luckier then me". Even it is somewhat true that others are luckier then you, the best thing you can do is to work on your game (oh, and I run 1,2bb/100 under EV over 1.3 million hands, guess I should work harder on it then everyone else ^^)

I definitely agree with you, but the live pros will say they get a higher winrate live than we can get online and therefore will have fewer swings (there is certainly an element of truth here) however there's also quite an element of survivorship bias in live pros. You never hear about the guys who get fed up or can't make it financially after months and months of breaking even/losing. They just slip away unnoticed unless there's a 2+2 NVG thread saying "what happened to x pro who won y tournament and has done nothing since". You hear a lot about the guys who can constantly make it playing the biggest stakes though and the people who win lots of tournaments. While it's certainly more likely the people you constantly hear about are quite a bit better than those you don't, there are going to be a good chunk of people who have run way above and way below their expectation.

It's a brutal world out there.

WoT

Crazy when you think about it actually.
A lot of the NL superstars we see have probably just ran in the top 5% of run good for their 1 to 2mil hands of poker.
Variance is so huge and sick in all aspects of poker not just all in ev. You can go through huge patches where you are constantly running into the top of peoples ranges. Getting JJ vs QQ, KK vs AA etc far more than your supposed to. People flopping sets vs you far more than they're supposed to. Your semi bluffs or draws not getting there on the turn and river far more then they're supposed to etc.

I remember saying this to myself when I made my first $20 deposit a few years ago: "If I lose this I will stop playing this game". Luckily for me I didn't start out with a 100K hand break-even stretch at nano stakes, or else I would not be playing this game today lol.

awesome awesome vid, definitely needed this

Absolutely. Really looking forward to the other philosophy type vids you mentioned Wilt.