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Poker Video: Misc/Other by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Hey, first of all thanks for the great vids.
Secondly, I think I may have spotted a little mistake in something you said in this video.
@25:30 You do the Excel equation calculation. You have made the positive EV of your opponent folding equal to the negative EV of your opponent calling, resulting in a required 50% Fold Equity to make shoving profitable. You say the following: "If it doesn't really matter, in terms of whether he calls or folds in terms of our Expected Value, that just means the more he folds the better".
In this example it seems to matter whether he calls or folds, as one is +EV the other -EV. I assume that as long as EV(Call) is negative, the more he folds the better, correct?

If I'm wrong here, I blame the Whiskey and it being 4am.
If I'm correct, I'm not complaining. I know you put this in the video on purpose ;-). Anyone who didn't spot this, has not seen this video enough times and heeded it's call: Do not try to be spoonfed; Make sure you understand all that is said.

Another question. It seems to me that the formula used to calculate EV @35:00 is different from the one shown in the slide @15:00. I'll compare the two methods from both timelines in the vid.

@15:00 the [what we win] in the EV-equation seems to be made up out of 1) what was in the pot when the current street began (700), and 2) our opponent's bet of 650. Resulting in a total of [what we win] of $1350.
@35:00 the [our win] variable seems to be constituted by only what is currently in the pot (590). While the $630 our opponent will put in the pot on this street if he calls should be added to this, if following the formula as @15:00, is this correct? This would result in a [our win] of $970.

For the second method the same difference seems to be present.
@15:00 the [total pot] consists of 1) what was already in the pot at the beginning of the street (700), 2) our opponent's shove (650), and 3) our own call (650). Resulting in a total pot of 2000.
@35:00 the "total pot" seems to include all the above, except for the opponent's call of the player's raise (630-250 = 380).

Should the EV @35:00 not be as follows?
EV = [Our Equity] * [Total Pot] - [Cost to bet/call]
EV = 0.23 * 1600 - 630
EV = 368 - 630
EV = -262

It seems like the formula @35:00 is a combination of EV(call) and EV(fold), in that the total pot used in the calculation assumes the opponent folds (thus leaving out the extra amount needed to call).

If I'm wrong, same excuse as above + it's even a bit later now ;-)

Thanks a bunch in advance!

Ya your right PACS the EV calc for opponent calling is not correct. The total pot is off in the video because we didn't add in the amount villain calls to the total pot.

Time Link to 00:29:33

Hi Wilt,

Quick question, what does the number of players at the table have to do with the likelihood of the board being dry or wet?

Cheers.

Hi Wilt,

Quick question, what does the number of players at the table have to do with the likelihood of the board being dry or wet?

Cheers.

nope, don't think so. There could possibly be some slight correlation that the more people in the pot, the more dry the board should be just because people are more likely to play suited hands compared to unsuited hands (so since they didnt fold pre, more likely to be suited, therefore fewer cards of a given suit in the deck), however the difference would be so slight that I wouldn't worry about it too much, and really it would be practically impossible to do anything with that knowledge in game. Also each suit is equally likely to be played, so you couldn't say something like "well 8 people in this pot so hearts are less likely to come on the flop" unless you think people are more likely to play a suited hand if its hearts but fold a suited hand if its clubs or something.

lol what a long winded answer that could have taken two letters: no

Thanks Wilt, I didn't understand at all why a board could be 'ridiculously' dry, 'especially' for heads-up!

Thanks Wilt, I didn't understand at all why a board could be 'ridiculously' dry, 'especially' for heads-up!

the degree of wetness or dryness is just related to how many draws are out there, not how many hands are dealt to the players.

so ridiculously dry might be K72r since there are zero straight draws. especially wet might be 9 T J etc

Time Link to 00:30:10

This is gold, I've been looking for an example of putting math into reviews!!!! Cheers for this!!

Thank you WiltOnTilt.

This is absolutely fantastic.
In my opinion learning how to learn is one of the most important qualities you could have, and it goes for all subjects.