General Poker Discussion Poker Forums

Hi everyone.
Since i joined FTP in the month of october(Because of Rakeback!) of last year, i have been below EV(happens!) but now the thing is getting out of hand, in my database of PT3 until the beginning of january-2010 i was 32 buy-ins below EV in a 120k hands played, all in FTP. I have played in Titan, doyles room and Party poker(more than 500k hands, this have never happened).
I knew that this thing was beginning to afect my play. I was becoming less aggressive because i knew they would suck out. So i decided to get coaching.
DerBrain(Stefan) helped me pluck some leaks and improved my game in a humongous way. Since his coaching my winrate stayed the same, you may ask why?
I thought my bad run was because i used PT3 insted of HEM(silly superstition!), so i bought HEM.
Every session or at the end of the week, i would speak to DerBrain about my lack of improving my winrate, so he thought it was a misapplication of the concepts he game me.
So i began using HEM and after 10k hands i showed him my EV graph (10 buy-ins below EV) and he said it was a small sample so he recommend it to keep grinding.
I continue with the grind but now after 28k hands, im 32 buy-ins below EV in my new database.(HEM)
So if we add the buy-ins im below in EV, im 64 buy-ins below EV.
I dont think this is normal, in such a small sample.
When i showed him(DerBrain) the graph and he listen to my point of view in the only way to fix it.
DerBrain has been really supportive about this.
he said "to tell you the truth, i think not even KRANTZ can save you!". Joking about the situation but staying supportive and helping me in every single question i asked in the subsequent time.

I play 25nl and all my hands are at that level.
This thing is beginning to get to me, I feel im cracking down.
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/5347/myai.jpg

This is my HEM graph. I dont use PT3 anymore.

I just dont know what else to do, im really desperate.
What does the DC crew think and recommend to me?

BTW i send a email to FTP about this and they said it was bad luck thats all but to me this is beyond bad luck.

BTW i send a email to FTP about this and they said it was bad luck thats all but to me this is beyond bad luck.

Do you think FTP will give you some BI's back? Good try lol According to your graph, you just have an extremely bad run for less than 10K hands. Variance.

Move down to 10nl for awhile, get confidence back etc.

There are a couple of things you can do.

1) Your goal should be to play your hands in the most +EV way. When villain sucks out you should be happy. Seriously. Maybe a little frustrated (only a little!!) but honestly happy about how you played the hand. You cannot control the amount of money you win. You can only control your own mental focus and thought process.


2) Stop looking at the EV-graph. It is irrelevant at best.

Good luck

2) Stop looking at the EV-graph. It is irrelevant at best.

Good luck

I think not looking at the EV-graph is fine if you are also not looking at your winnings. Your EV graph is slightly more relevant than your winnings.

For most people I would suggest not looking at your winnings over massive hand samples is something that is not really attainable.

I think not looking at the EV-graph is fine if you are also not looking at your winnings. Your EV graph is slightly more relevant than your winnings.

For most people I would suggest not looking at your winnings over massive hand samples is something that is not really attainable.

Disclaimer:
I have not looked into how the EV-graph is calculated in current version.

It used to not take into account how the money goes in. All-in preflop EV was therefor the only part that was calculated in a meaningful way. They may have changed it - but I doubt it.

Winnings do have a meaning. But not as a measure for how well you have played. It is a part of your BR and tells you how high you can allow yourself to play.

Look at this image
http://lh5.ggpht.com/_5pjtj-n38Ns/S4ENpcbih8I/AAAAAAAAAfA/7AAEKk7Cz-Q/s800/variance.jpg

And ponder on your position in this distribution after 20k hands.
And then ask yourself if you're prepared for the next 180k hands?

It used to not take into account how the money goes in. All-in preflop EV was therefor the only part that was calculated in a meaningful way. They may have changed it - but I doubt it.

Yeah it is still like that with problems and all. However it is still a slightly better measure of how well you are playing than your actual winnings. Unfortunately we dont have anything better as a metric for how well we are playing.

I think sometimes looking at EV graphs can have a positive effect on your attitude. For example, maybe the OP of this thread would have just given up on poker by now if he didnt have the safety net of an EV graph telling him he is playing winning poker in spite of his losses. I dont think this has to be a negative thing as long as it is understood in context.

I agree with rjpageuk, but looking at your HoldemManager EV graph would be a lot more useful if you could do it without simultaneously looking at your actual winnings -- and the gap between the two of them

Is there anyway to disable EV graphs on HEM?

Is there anyway to disable EV graphs on HEM?

i was just wondering how many players' development has been stunted due to these damn EV graphs, lol

i was just wondering how many players' development has been stunted due to these damn EV graphs, lol

True.

I know from personal experience that they're far too often an excuse to feel sorry for yourself and whine about your bad luck rather than use your time usefully by trying to improve your game.

True.

I know from personal experience that they're far too often an excuse to feel sorry for yourself and whine about your bad luck rather than use your time usefully by trying to improve your game.

couldn't have said it better myself!

i was just wondering how many players' development has been stunted due to these damn EV graphs, lol

I dont really understand this - running below EV is motivation to continue learning and improving because you can see that you have the potential to make more money than you are now and it also gives you a way of understanding the variance of poker which is a key part of coping with the game.

It doesnt take any time to look at your AIEV, it is just there along with your winnings in HEM. Understand it for what it is because it is just another piece of information you can use to help yourself.

It seems to me ignoring a piece of information is more likely to stunt your growth. How many player's development do you think has been stunted by running good and ignoring the AIEV graph? It is much more dangerous to think everything is ok when it isnt than to think everything isnt ok when it is as the latter encourages further study which can only be a good thing.

EV lines just distract from improvement. you can be down a thousand buyins in EV and it doesn't matter; what matters is finding the spots you played incorrectly and fixing them. i'll agree that for some players it is comforting to know that you ran bad, but again, it too often causes people to put their losses off solely due to EV and not the billion other factors that go into making someone a winning player.