General Poker Discussion Poker Forums

(1) Let's say a villain has an overall 3bet % of 8% over 1000 hands and he 3bets you from BB. Looking at the HUD, it says 13% 3bet from BB for his stats. If I want to calculate my equity vs his range in this spot, do I make his range 8% or 13% ?

(2) Let's say a Villain is playing 35/26 approx and he calls behind me preflop. How do I estimate his calling range? Is is 35-26? Or is it 35-his 3bet stat?

(3) What is a good enough sample size to base a decision on? At micro stakes, there are thousands of players and although you sometimes have over 1000 hands on a player, usually it's a few hundred max. Is this too small to base opinions on?

(4) How does a HUD calculate 4bet ranges for Villains?

(5) What are the numbers in parenthesis after stat numbers in a HUD?

Thanks

1) definitely the 13%
2) if you are going to just blindly go by the hud it's going to be way easier to use cold call stats.
3)you wan minimum of hundreds of hands. Some things are obvious quicker than others, but positional stats take hundreds of hands.
4)They take the number of opportunities that they had to 4bet and the number of times they did 4bet, it's a percentage though and the percentage rarely corresponds to say something like pokerstoves to X% percentage.
5) this will depend on your hud.

In general I wouldn't aim to play purely on Hud stats as the stats do not always record some of the dynamics at the table. If you have been playing a weak player in position you might 3-bet isolate this player very often, perhaps 15% but your average is still only 5%, so a misleading stat for a later player. You do want to spot and use dynamics/game-flow but the stats are still really useful. Also the context of the sample is important, your play changes depending on if you are double stacked (for tournie players the stats are less reliable due to the changing state of the game)

(1) the more specific stat, in this case from BB is more appropriate but the specific nature of this stat means the sample size is smaller and may be less reliable/still unconverged.

(2) From the stat you would use a combination of vpip and pfr. If the player just calls his vpip will increase due to this, his pfr will not (actually drop slightly). If the player raises you both vpip and pfr go up with this event, the 3-bet is altered also. In a way you could say something like
Raises the top (35-26)% and calls to the 35% point, this should probaly also fit with the 3-bet stat which should be roughly in the range (35 - 26)%. Again a warning - don't assume these players will always follow the stat indicated plan.

(3) Ah - this is hard to say or give a rule of thumb for. Some stats converge to a good guide point quicky, the more often it is possible to make the action the faster the convergence. Any stat where you have less than few sample points should be treated as a wide range, in fact the samaller sample the less accuracy. At 30 or 40 samples the stat confidence will be about as wide as the value, eg if 25%vpip with 35 possible samples(hands in this case) the stat is (25 +/- 13)%

(4) at any point where it is possible to 4-bet (ie, facing a 3-bet) the count of events will go up by one, if the player does 4-bet the stat successCount will go up by one, else stay the same. The stat is (100* successCount) / Numb of Poss Events.
At the micros this 4-bet stat will be take many hands to converge and usually, unless the player is tilted or an aggro monster it is a monster.

(5) these are the number of possible events (see answer (4)) that the tracker has seen and indicates that there are very few samples available - so be careful.

Important thing about 3b% stat is that it takes into account % of hands player actually played, which means it shows 3b/call ratio.
So if he is 3/3 (vpip/pfr) nit after 1000 hands with 3b% = 100 it just means he plays QQ+, AK and 3bets them every time.
But if you see a guy playing 30/10 with high 3bet% over the same sample you can assume he 3bets really light.

Good agressive players tend to have high 3b% because they rarely call OOP, 3betting or folding most of the time. So they 3b% stat could lead you to make incorrect assumptions about they're 3b tendencies.

If you see a player with reasonable 3b% (probably 7-10%, correct me if I'm wrong) try to take a note if he 3bets polarized (nuts and garbage) or depolarized (nuts and medium strenght hands, like AJ, KQ. 99). Vs the latter don't call 3bets too wide, but you can flat 3b with AK and enjoy domination

Thanks everyone. I know the stats can be misleading but I was confused about what certain stats to use when doing analysis after a session. i've noticed that when I see a player with a 3bet % of around 15%, I mentally tend to play back at these guys and automatically start to 4bet light and/or call their 3bets with marginal hands.

Important thing about 3b% stat is that it takes into account % of hands player actually played, which means it shows 3b/call ratio.
So if he is 3/3 (vpip/pfr) nit after 1000 hands with 3b% = 100 it just means he plays QQ+, AK and 3bets them every time.
But if you see a guy playing 30/10 with high 3bet% over the same sample you can assume he 3bets really light.

Good agressive players tend to have high 3b% because they rarely call OOP, 3betting or folding most of the time. So they 3b% stat could lead you to make incorrect assumptions about they're 3b tendencies.

If you see a player with reasonable 3b% (probably 7-10%, correct me if I'm wrong) try to take a note if he 3bets polarized (nuts and garbage) or depolarized (nuts and medium strenght hands, like AJ, KQ. 99). Vs the latter don't call 3bets too wide, but you can flat 3b with AK and enjoy domination

Looks like I got that one totally wrong. Why did nobody correct me?
Call open and 3b% are based on the same number which is probably total amount of hands in which there is single raise before you. Sorry for the mix up.