General Discussion Poker Forums

i dunno about these winning streaks, but my session win/loss ratio is 2 to 1.

as for the massive variance, i just don't see it. my avg AI EV is 70%, and i'm .5 bi under ev.

does that mean i'm a nit?

Sample?

i dunno about these winning streaks, but my session win/loss ratio is 2 to 1.

as for the massive variance, i just don't see it. my avg AI EV is 70%, and i'm .5 bi under ev.

does that mean i'm a nit?

It means you are passing up a ton of +EV spots imo.

I actually played some more rush poker after my first 50k hand experiment, will post the graph when I go back from my vacation in Korea.

It means you are passing up a ton of +EV spots imo.

sample's over 9k hands. but that's a month for me, 28 sessions. 19 wins 9 losses.

but other than getting it in w AK pre sometimes, i'm only ai if i think i have the best hand. so a lot of 98,90,80's, then some coolers like 30,10,5's. what do you mean by passing up +EV spots? like crai with naked flush/srait draws?

So I think the only way to make money at Rush is to flop set over set. People are so nitty at NL10. Maybe its just me. Doesn't feel like poker at all

So I think the only way to make money at Rush is to flop set over set. People are so nitty at NL10. Maybe its just me. Doesn't feel like poker at all

If everyone is really nitty, winning should be very simple.

If everyone is really nitty, winning should be very simple.

But I suck

I actually played some more rush poker after my first 50k hand experiment, will post the graph when I go back from my vacation in Korea.

thinly veiled vacation brag?

What kind of ptbb / 100 hand winrate do you guys think is possible at 25nl 50nl 100nl 6max and fr? How many hands do the math people think is a good enough sample size? 500k seems like way too many. I think 100k would be enough if someone is winning at like 5ptbb and isn't running super hot in allin ev?

http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/

play with those and you will see why 100k means very little. while it is true that by using AIEV and flop a setometer etc you could narrow the confidence down a bit but there are a billion ways to run bad that can't be determined by HEM. imo part of the beauty of rush is that no one knows the possible long term winrates of rush and because its not mineable it wont likely be known because youll get some people who post large samples on forums eventually, but most wont so it will be very unknown for some time. so everyones little sample sizes they have acquired in the past month means next to nothing unfortunately.

the only thing i will guess at is that id put money on the best rush winrates being lower than the best regular cash game winrates for fairly obvious reasons.

Yes, 100,000 means very little. Thanks for this great post.

I also love the second link...much, much better than the simple excel program I created...thanks!

the only thing i will guess at is that id put money on the best rush winrates being lower than the best regular cash game winrates for fairly obvious reasons.

Are the obvious reasons that you are referring to:

1) Your win rate will go down because you can not table select
2) Your win rate will go down because you can not make as accurate of reads on your opponents and thus will not be able to maximize the benefit of player specific adjustments

???

It would seem to me that you could mercilessly run over and rape your opponents, beat them over the head with your chip stack and literally steal, steal, steal, with an ultra aggressive approach and since your opponents will not be able to put you on that style they will not make the obvious necessary adjustments to exploit your brazen aggression. And since Rush is only spread at limits up to 1-2, the majority of your opponents just aren't going to be the type that have the stones to call down 3 streets, or their entire stack with less than nut hands. This anonyminity seems to favor ruthless aggression and might allow for a higher win rate/100 hands and massively higher per hour.

But what do I know, it's just a theory. Thoughts ...

I agree with mdm about lowered possible winrates.

Because Rush encourages a tight style, the differences between players are smaller and thus edges are smaller too. Additionally, much of your edge in regular games comes from using specific reads and stats to alter your standard lines, and thats simply not as possible/effective in Rush.

That being said, many people might be able to make a higher hourly winrate at rush because of the awesomely high hands/hr. And thats what really matters, anyhow.

But what do I know, it's just a theory. Thoughts ...

yeah basically you covered the reasons. the highest possible winrate for a normal cash game is almost certainly going to be largely a product of game selection. also, like DJ said is that rush encourages tightness and along with that goes the fact that you will probably quickfold some slightly +EV spots in late positions for the sake of hourly earn which will reduce your winrate (that obviously you'd always play in normal poker). and while im aware there is some reciprocity factored into that that will negate some of the spots you quickfold, i think the fact you'd miss out on some +ev spots vs fish will result in a lower winrate in the long run.

as far as the aggression stuff, it certainly has some potential to exploit the lack of a table dynamic but now that huds are out thats going to become a lot less profitable, esp at 200nl where the player pool is pretty small so you pick up hands on people pretty quickly.

It would seem to me that you could mercilessly run over and rape your opponents, beat them over the head with your chip stack and literally steal, steal, steal, with an ultra aggressive approach and since your opponents will not be able to put you on that style

uhm... like this? (some observed hands)

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 543480
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $96.75
BB: $50.00
UTG: $80.10
MP: $52.10
Hero (CO): $52.40
BTN: $80.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A 3
3 folds, BTN raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB raises to $3.50, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($7.25) T K K (2 players)
BB bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($14.25) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, BTN bets $9.50, BB calls $9.50

River: ($33.25) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, BTN bets $34.75, BB calls $33.50 all in

Final Pot: $100.25
BB shows 9 T (two pair, Kings and Tens)
BTN shows Q J (a pair of Kings)
BB wins $97.25
(Rake: $3.00)


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 543486
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $82.10
BB: $58.70
Hero (UTG): $54.15
MP: $123.25
CO: $22.20
BTN: $61.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 6 4
2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) K 6 2 (2 players)
CO checks, BTN bets $3, CO calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) K (2 players)
CO checks, BTN bets $8.50, CO calls $8.50

River: ($27.25) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: $27.25
CO shows K 9 (three of a kind, Kings)
BTN shows A J (a pair of Kings)
CO wins $25.90
(Rake: $1.35)

Because Rush encourages a tight style, the differences between players are smaller and thus edges are smaller too.

tight /= good (or maybe i confuse ppl with how i play AA )

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 543484
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $52.15
CO: $51.45
BTN: $53.00
SB: $57.05
BB: $50.00
UTG: $92.70

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with A A
UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.50, 4 folds, UTG raises to $13.50, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($27.75) 4 7 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $38.65 all in, UTG calls $24.65

Turn: ($105.05) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($105.05) K (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $105.05
Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)
UTG shows J A (Ace King high)
Hero wins $102.05
(Rake: $3.00)

Yeah those hands don't even look that extraordinary to me. I think rush takes all the leaks unl players have and magnifies them. Then they complain that rush is too hard since you can't get reads on people. It's probably different at 200nl where I would expect people to have a more fundamentally sound game. Then not having reads is killing your edge.