General Discussion Poker Forums

Was playing at local casino last night and some guy offered me a prop bet.

He picks 3 cards and he gets £1 if he hits one of his cards on the flop, and i would get £1 if he misses. Immediately i went into the tank to think about it, i realised that i was always being scammed in this spot and declined.

I was wondering if someone knew what the odds were, as i didn't figure them out on the spot. How much of a favourite is he?

PS. he picks three cards in his head not out of the deck. So he has 12 cards to hit instead of 9

I'm a little tired so don't lol if im wrong but 12/52 * 3 = 36/52 = ~70% chance he will hit one of his picks.

If I'm right then it's clearly very +EV for him even though intuitively it doesn't look quite as bad.

Of course any bet along these lines will favour the person setting the terms so heavily that I would always decline even if my "math" at the time said I had the edge.

Easiest to think of the chance of him missing his 3 cards (i.e. 12 possible outs each time) on each of the three cards of the flop:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 ~ 45%

SO it is pretty close but still -EV to take the bet.

Can he alter the odds by selecting certain cards as well?

For instance, say players are more likely to play an Ax hand therefore by NOT selecting an ace as one of his three he increases his odds each time the table sees a flop.

Can he alter the odds by selecting certain cards as well?

For instance, say players are more likely to play an Ax hand therefore by NOT selecting an ace as one of his three he increases his odds each time the table sees a flop.

Ooh that's a good point, not even Aces, if he stayed away from broadways altogether...

Easiest to think of the chance of him missing his 3 cards (i.e. 12 possible outs each time) on each of the three cards of the flop:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50 ~ 45%

SO it is pretty close but still -EV to take the bet.

My math is def wrong, adding probabilities is tricky.
The above calculation makes more sense.

Ooh that's a good point, not even Aces, if he stayed away from broadways altogether...

umm I don't think that's right

umm I don't think that's right

Yea you're right now that I am awake and think about it. Its not what people play its what they are dealt, people are as likely to be dealt 72 and fold as someone is to get AA and play it.

When i first woke up and read his post it made sense to my half-awake brain... lol

I originally thought that it wouldn't matter as well, but I reread the OP and goldenporche's post.

If it were simply between the 2 of you flopping flops with a deck of cards then it won't matter what cards he chooses.

However, if you're playing in a casino, there doesn't have to be a flop every hand. So the times when there are many low cards dealt to the players, there may not be a flop. Whereas if there are many high cards dealt to the players, the chances of seeing a flop increases and the likelihood of one of those high cards coming on the flop decreases.

Yea you're right now that I am awake and think about it. Its not what people play its what they are dealt, people are as likely to be dealt 72 and fold as someone is to get AA and play it.

When i first woke up and read his post it made sense to my half-awake brain... lol

No, I think it does make a difference. This is similar to the math done by Barry Greenstein in an old 2+2 post (I think that's where I read it!) where he had calculated the odds of getting a walk with AA in the big blind being slightly higher than getting a walk with a random hand. He figured that with two aces in your hand, there are that many fewer playable hands. In this case, if a flop is seen, it's likely that among those seeing the flop, they are a couple of paint cards. If everyone were dealt two random lowish cards, there's likely no flop.

Edit: Oops, 2fouroffsuit beat me to it.

that sounds logical, although isnt this in essence the prop bets Ivey etc play?

that sounds logical, although isnt this in essence the prop bets Ivey etc play?

The difference between Ivey bets and this one is that the players both get to pick cards. meaning that its just as hard/easy for me to flop a card as it is for him, which makes its neutral EV i guess (irrelevant of the high card argument).

In this particular prop bet the hustler gets to pick the cards i just get the rest of the deck.

The difference between Ivey bets and this one is that the players both get to pick cards. meaning that its just as hard/easy for me to flop a card as it is for him, which makes its neutral EV i guess (irrelevant of the high card argument).

In this particular prop bet the hustler gets to pick the cards i just get the rest of the deck.

There are a couple of prop bets like that in the Encyclopedia of Gambling(?). One I recall: I shuffle, you choose 2 cards from a deck of {Qh,Qd,Ah,Ad,Ac,As}. You win if there isn't a Q. What's the prob of you winning?

There are a couple of prop bets like that in the Encyclopedia of Gambling(?). One I recall: I shuffle, you choose 2 cards from a deck of {Qh,Qd,Ah,Ad,Ac,As}. You win if there isn't a Q. What's the prob of you winning?

Obviously less than 50% since you can pick one or even two Q's.