lickyfeet
208 posts
Joined 03/2009
If he folds everything worse than Kx on the flop we shouldn't bluff him on the turn indeed, but that's a ridiculous asumption. It's NLHE, nobody ever has anything. I don't think he's folding any pair on the flop. Maybe 22/33 but that's about it. And he might have floats etc. And even if a king calls me when I bet, I have so much equity that I can c/c a bet anyway. And he'll bet his kings on the turn anyway, so basicly I'm seeing the river for the same ammount of money wether I bet or c/c. But when I check he'll check down his 2nd pair type hands which I could have folded out on the turn, making betting far superior here.
And with betting I keep the initiative so I have the opportunity to 3-barrel if I want to aswell.
Ah...I see! Thanks so much, such a great analysis.
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
doc.lemon
1790 posts
Joined 07/2009
Time Link to 00:04:49
I love your videos, you are my hero Grindcore.
By the way could you please expand on the shoving of 99 (you said 55-88 are virtually the same) when we get squeezed?
Is this still standard if the original raiser folds?
Could you please expand on reasoning and your equity when shoving pp's that we called PF in this spot?
Many Thanks
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
doc.lemon
1790 posts
Joined 07/2009
lickyfeet
208 posts
Joined 03/2009
With the remaining videos, will you be doing more on theory and less playing (like in the first one). The first episode was so amazing and the theory GREATLY enhanced my game.
Are you going to be doing more episodes that are just theory based?? I hope so! The other two vids are great, but there are so many specific situations, most of which arn't found in an hour of playing. The theory seems to cover so much playing in general...so helpful IMO.
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
Grindcore
2376 posts
Joined 11/2008
I love your videos, you are my hero Grindcore.
By the way could you please expand on the shoving of 99 (you said 55-88 are virtually the same) when we get squeezed?
Is this still standard if the original raiser folds?
Could you please expand on reasoning and your equity when shoving pp's that we called PF in this spot?
Many Thanks
This is still standard when the pfr folds. When the PFR calls there's some extra dead money so unless he has a range that's gonna call twice, it's even better than when he folds. When he calls twice his range for doing that influences the EV (like him ever flatting AA there, or calling twice with 66).
95% of players don't squeeze mid pairs but only broadways Ax Kx some junk maybe and premiums or something. They'll call the backraise with all their premiums.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.504% 35.21% 00.29% 224290476 1863336.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 64.496% 64.20% 00.29% 408959940 1863336.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.260% 37.06% 00.20% 236051700 1286694.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 62.740% 62.54% 00.20% 398352000 1286694.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
As you see 22-99 are all the same hand. Lets say PFR folded, which generally makes it worse to backraise. If we jam and get called the pot will be 203 bbs so with ~36% equity we have 73bbs equity. We jam allin for 97 more, so when we get called we lose 24bbs. There are 18bbs in the pot. So we're risking 24 to win 18, so it has to work 24/(18+24) = 57% of the time. So if TT+/AQ+ are less than 43% of villains range, we can jam. TT+/AQ+ are 4.7% of all startinghands, so his squeezingrange has to be 4.7/0.43 = 10.9%. This range for example, is already 11.6%:
TT+,AJs+,KQs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+
Alot of people will also squeeze suited aces, suited kings/queens, some more offsuit aces etc. It's almost impossible for a reg not to squeeze 10.9% in BB v BU/SB so we can pretty much always shove 22+ unless we have a better read telling us not to.
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
ohjoy
431 posts
Joined 07/2008
Poemmel
1025 posts
Joined 03/2009
Quiz at the end:
Ok assuming all reads are perfectly 100% right, which they probably aren't always, cause he is just a fish clickin buttons.
When he doesn't raise the flop we can discount every hand better than 7x, every FD and probably most of his openenders.
He doesnt have a 2 cause he would tank on the turn.
He doesnt have 53 cause he would have tanked and probably just check it back on the river, as I expect him to do with a 6.
That said most of his range is gutshots that missed, so his range is like 48/59/9T.
That said with getting that good of a price we can call with hands as weak as 89, sick shit ^^
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
Kazm
362 posts
Joined 12/2009
FullTimeSmile
392 posts
Joined 09/2009
Regarding the question on the end:
I would put him on a range of 89/6x/44-55 unless you consider in your note that 33-55 is air for him. Against that range given the pot odds you should snap off with 86 here
Personally if I was certain that he doesn't have top pair (and also raises small over pairs on the flop) I think I would call with A6 (since I wouldn't go crazy with 86, and don't play K-96).
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
FullTimeSmile
392 posts
Joined 09/2009
Grindcore
2376 posts
Joined 11/2008
FullTimeSmile
392 posts
Joined 09/2009
Djingo
417 posts
Joined 10/2009
Answer to quiz:
Since T9,89,T8 are not exactly air and I fully expect a 65 VPIP to call with these on the turn I include them in the riverbetting range.I have not included any 3x hands since the river would have improved him and yet he still made a snapaction.
Range: A6-86,65,64,44,55,89,T9,T8.
Against this range we need about 33% equity so a call with 55 is borderline.
If he is not capable of valuebetting light on the river which most donks aren't, then you could argue he can only have T9,T8 and 89 and then you could make a pot odds call with T4 since you would have 40% and you are getting 3:1 on your call. Even though 9s8s is not in his range anymore.
Posted over 3 years ago
Reply to Topic
Reply w/Quote
mark89er
227 posts
Joined 03/2009
ohjoy
431 posts
Joined 07/2008