Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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Hero (BB): $222.00
UTG: $201.00
CO: $202.00
BTN: $206.00
SB: $201.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with 4 6
2 folds, BTN raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.00) 6 4 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12.00, Hero calls $12

River: ($45.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $184.00, Hero is like:

http://images4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20101026040409/newgrounds/images/b/bb/WhatTheFuckMan.jpg

22/18/5.4/22/42 | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD
Steal BTN: 61%
C-Bet F/T/R: 78 / 68 / 52

- 3b DEPO IP (KTs 6-16)
- c-bets and barrels DEPO?
- raises gs and barrels till the R
- OAD with AIR
- Bet Sizing Tell
- only flats a raise on ultra wet brd in 3bp w/ OP

We've been playing HU on a 6-max table for a while. He moved me off my hands twice so far, because of the horrible board run outs, almost always with the 3/4 PSB sizing.

Preflop
I know this call might be questionable. I did call, because:
- I am offered 22% pot odds + I can expect him to c-bet almost always, therefore my effective pot odds are like ~~ 13-15% = I can literally play fit or fold to show a better EV than by folding
Also, he c-bets 'one and done' with AIR and gives away a Bet Sizing Tell, which should help me postflop.

Flop
I have the nutz, he c-bets smaller than 3/4 PSB = he doesn't have a strong hand. That being said, my plan is stay passive and let him hang himself.

Turn
This sizing only ensures me he has something weak.

River
And now he overbets 4.0x pot. Given my reads and assumptions he basically reps 3 combos of 77 and nothing else.

Pot Odds: 45% or 1.24:1 (=he needs to have at least 2.5 worse combos)

What would you do in my shoes?

can villain not have 1combo of 66,Q4c and 3combo 77??
Ii know you have a bet sizing tell but i mean i dont think i can ever fold here. Villain is aggro, btn v bb we are at the top of our range if he has it then just chalk it up to a cooler.
if villain has the above hands in his range then he also has A4o Adx which alone will make this call +EV.
I dont think worrying about these spots is too productive i mean you effectively have da nuts bbvbtn against an aggro reg who seems fairly barrel happy.

I dont expect villain to bet this sizing with A4. That would be a pretty big mistake imo. Why Villain cant have QQ? You would EXPECT him to bet bigger but its still in his range imo. People are not robots that use the same sizing every single time. Im not sure I can fold in game but I really cant imagine someone taking this line with A4 or flush. Also its hard to find bluffs in villains range.

I dont expect villain to bet this sizing with A4. That would be a pretty big mistake imo. Why Villain cant have QQ? You would EXPECT him to bet bigger but its still in his range imo. People are not robots that use the same sizing every single time. Im not sure I can fold in game but I really cant imagine someone taking this line with A4 or flush. Also its hard to find bluffs in villains range.

obv QQ is in there too my bad

When you give him QQ to his range or even more hands like Q4s (1 combo), then he has 6-7 or even more value hands OTR and you are still call happy? Given this assumption he has to overbet shove AT LEAST 5 combos, do you think it is possible, have you ever seen this before?

I think it's very very unlikely villain is doing this with a hand that we beat. I understand in game it's almost impossible to fold but when I look at this know I would fold. Why would villain ever shove 4x or flush here? What would he expect us to call with?

When you give him QQ to his range or even more hands like Q4s (1 combo), then he has 6-7 or even more value hands OTR and you are still call happy? Given this assumption he has to overbet shove AT LEAST 5 combos, do you think it is possible, have you ever seen this before?

I dont think our percieved range is that strong and villian can def take this line as a bluff no?

I dont think our percieved range is that strong and villian can def take this line as a bluff no?

Why would he risk his whole stack to bluff if a smaller bet would accomplish the same? what bluffs do you see in villains range?

Why would he risk his whole stack to bluff if a smaller bet would accomplish the same? what bluffs do you see in villains range?

If we are considerinng folding a FH then villains shove is terrible with his entire value range. Our percieved range is something like PPd, AdQ,QKd.A4s and some flushes so i guess villain can barrel all AdX hands esp with the blocker.
Not sure if villain is capable of overbet bluffing but in my experiences yes overbets are usually value but im still not folding our percieved range is not to strong villain looks aggro reg and we are at the top of our range.

Some players think we are not able to fold 4x or flushes and shove with the nuts because they don't have to get called often to show a higher profit then a "normal" river valuebet. I know you are aware of this. Imo saying "we have the top of our range so we can not fold" is not good because there are always situations you should make some exceptions based on all factors oocuring in the hand.

Based on our perceived range, which imo is rarely 4x or a flush (we would probably make a move somehwere in the hand with a flush a fair % of the time), villain could try to get us to fold a medium pair or Qx. If we know villain is good and is also thinking about this, this could be a call. This is totally different from what I mentioned before so tbh i'm not sure anymore.

To get back to the number of combos in villains range that beat us;
I think looking at how less value combos villain is repping is useless; don't we always lose versus a very small number of value combos villain is repping?! I am..

Because a small bet doesn't accomplish the same as a large bet if he wants us to fold a bluff catcher as good as 4x, both the over card and the 3rd diamond are cards he could have a huge bluffing range on and that could incline us to bluff catch.

I don't think the bet sizing is necessarily indicitave of a value hand, whether or not his bet sizing is indiciative of a value hand is another matter.

As far as how the hand is played, check/raising the flop aside, I think you end up crying calling this in game a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few better hands in his range short of 77.

@direstraights
You mean you call OTR?

I'd either A) call on the river without a read vs villain or B) knowing SSNL players fold on the river based on their overbets being overly value oriented or C) fold on the river with a read vs villain from an out of game stand point, but from an in game stand point I think I'd instinctively call this because 99-88 should be in my perceived range at these stakes, the turn is an over card which increases his bluffing frequency, the turn is a diamond and the villain expects me to check/raise all (or most) flushes and he's either overbetting me as a bluff if he thinks I can fold the strongest bluff catchers in my range, overbetting me for value with the nut flush if he thinks I'm capable of calling with the weakest bluff catchers in my range (whether or not that's 88, 4x or a flush is your business) and it's a potential leveling spot on a paired board.

So, what I'm saying is there's a reasonable argument for folding this hand based on reads on your villain or player tendencies at these stakes, there's a reasonable argument for calling based on your perceived range, the board texture and any reads he has on you, and I don't blame you for calling in game because you only have 30 seconds to think about it and it's a fucking fullhouse.

Unless somebody can come up with a really good mathematical argument, from a strategic standpoint folding and calling are both logical. Honestly, I would've called looking for a nut flush or a naked A or K of diamonds in game, so don't beat yourself up if you called. Even if it's like 2 bluff combos, 1 chop combos and 6 value combos I think the call is good (Warning: I suck at maths)?

Edit: I suppose to also depends on whether or not he turns 77 into a bluff or checks behind the turn in order to check/fold the river, making it a potential 9 value combos at which point you need to know whether or not he can shove the nut flush draw for value.

Shouldnt this be a snap call on the river...Our percieved range looks weak, like a one pair type hand..This guy is never putting us on a boat...And he can rep a lot of value combos on this board with his bluffs.and he can be v-betting worse.

We already know he is aggressive, and can probably read board textures and know what cards to follow through on...Turn is a excellent card for him to continue.

I have no idea wtf your calling in these spots if your folding this hand.

I also think its a fold post-flop considering villains tendencies and were OOP..Be better being IP and knowing these reads of one and done etc...Its hard to take lines OOP also. Maybe if hes always OAD then gives up i might call light in the blinds, but villain doesnt seem that way with the stats you gave.

Shouldnt this be a snap call on the river...Our percieved range looks weak, like a one pair type hand..This guy is never putting us on a boat...And he can rep a lot of value combos on this board with his bluffs.and he can be v-betting worse.

We already know he is aggressive, and can probably read board textures and know what cards to follow through on...Turn is a excellent card for him to continue.

I have no idea wtf your calling in these spots if your folding this hand.

I also think its a fold post-flop considering villains tendencies and were OOP..Be better being IP and knowing these reads of one and done etc...Its hard to take lines OOP also. Maybe if hes always OAD then gives up i might call light in the blinds, but villain doesnt seem that way with the stats you gave.

Basically this. Not folding. If he has better it was a cooler anyway since we were c/r river. Now that he can have bluffs in his range, and potentially make you fold 95%+ range on the river his river bet sizes isnt even that bad.