Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Vilain is a good, solid regular. Clearly on the nitty side. Not really bluffy postflop (he flatted my 3b with low SC once and didn't stab AJQx flop while I was checking a small PP). He saw me play like a maniac on different occasions, and my image is laggy at least, not to say monkeyish.
I haven't really seen him play back though.
He plays 22/17, steals 58% BTN, fold to 3bet 57% over 650 hands. Fold 50% vs CB 3b pots.

PF and flop are standard IMO, but I'm really puzzled with this turn card. Bet kinda sucks as it is almost overplays our hand (the good side of betting is my crazy image, which might induce slightly more light calls or light shoves), and commits us vs a shove against a strong range. C/C is meh as he's not the kind of opponent to float a lot, and his betting range will be quite strong. C/F might be the right play, IDK.
C/C and C/F unimproved river?

Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1854880
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $202.00
CO: $108.46
BTN: $244.98
SB: $131.90
Hero (BB): $200.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A Q
2 folds, BTN raises to $4, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $21, BTN calls $17, 1 fold

Flop: ($46.00) Q Q J (2 players)
Hero bets $20.00, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($86.00) K (2 players)

Final Pot: $86.00

Effective stack OTT: 159.

Mini bet

Mini bet

Again crazy good response, this isn't 2+2. Don't mean to hate on you but if your gonna post 2 words in the hands forum better not to post atall.

I think this turn card is abit deceptive cause it fucks up the board but doesn't hit his range that often. He might not realise this so against the right opponents I can be okay with c/c down. Against this particular guy that doesn't float a ton his range looks abit stronger. So I can see a ch/f as reasonable.

I def think you can't bet again, would have to be a pretty crazy image to get calls for AJ or KJ here, and AK 4bets pre. The only other hands you beat are maybe TT or QTs, I say maybe cause preflop looks like a fold for him.

The reason I like ch/c against some opponents is that this is a prime spot people change pairs into a bluff, JT/AJ/KJ make up the biggest part of his flop calling range, with some Flushdraws and 9Ts. But not everyone is aggro enough to pull that move so against those guys they just check down the Jx and bet everything that beats you. Therefor ch/f is reasonable.

Just to add one last bit, this guy doens't look like it but against the bigger showdown nits you can consider 3 barreling this allin. It would hang on whether or not your opponent can fold a flush and how obvious he is preflop with hands like KK/JJ.

Preflop
Sqzing WIDE to 4.0x to $16 vs BTN + SB call is really awesome - you invest $14 to win $24 = 58.3% fold equity is needed. And it works, trust me.
Buf if SB is a fish, then I don't mind raising bigger, just keep this in mind.

Flop
Good sizing.

Turn
This card could have helped him, hands that got there:
- KQ (3)
- ATs (2)
- T9s (4)
- 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c (3)
_________________
12 combos

On top of that, there is QJs (1).

Can you find 14+++ worse calling combos? Some KTs, Jx and that's all. I am not sure if you can even x/c, you have 16.96% equity.

Pretty sick, but that looks like a x/f to me with a low equity, huge reverse implied pot odds and with a nitty Villain who isn't bluffy postflop on boards that are likely to hit your range.