Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain is 21/18, 3bets 8.1%. He raises cbets 11%. He doesn't seem particularly aggressive and we have no history. Should I call again on the turn or check/raise?


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1848865
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BB: $112.35
UTG: $128.90
Hero (MP): $207.70
CO: $100.00
BTN: $113.40
SB: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is MP with T Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3 7 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $15, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($37.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $23, Hero ???

I would just call again. If he has a set/2pair/straight, he will bet again on most rivers for value and you can c/r allin pretty easily. If he is bluffing which is certainly possible, he might actually continue on a decent amount of rivers putting you on some kind of pair+draw type hand.
C/r on the turn gives away the strength of your hand and might even make him hero fold some monsters.

You should fold on the flop. Did you put villain on a range at all or did you just see that "I have a FD too much equity to fold?" Villain's raising range here is something like FD(most are better than yours) and sets/2pairs. He's not raising that often based on stats and should be even stronger given positions.

As played you should lead on the turn and fold to a shove. x/r the turn is probably better than calling with the intention of x/jamming the river, at least you make him fold sets with has over 20% equity. Again given the range we give villain for raising the flop he has no air which will bet the river. He will most likely check behind with his none flush hands(maybe bet top set?) and bet all flushes, x/jamming river is lightning money on fire vs that range.

blah - if his raising cbet % was significantly higher and was kind of an aggro monkey who attempts to win too many pots, it would be a standard flop call and then call turn and river?

blah - if his raising cbet % was significantly higher and was kind of an aggro monkey who attempts to win too many pots, it would be a standard flop call and then call turn and river?

If he's an aggro monkey, we should jam the flop (yes just jam). We make villain fold huge equity share. Calling is +EV but probably not the highest EV since we will be folding huge equity share when we miss and villain may spike marginal showdown value and check even if we hit.

Flop
Why did you c-bet $6 into $7.50, is this your standard? Usually people c-bet $5.00-$5.50 here. Let's try to put him on a range.
- his Call Open on BTN is prob the widest, I think it is roughly 12%
- 12% * 0.11 = 1.32% -> he represents a range of 1.32% OTF, which is about 14-15 combos

Possible value combos:
- 88 (3)
- 77 (3)
- 33 (3)
- 87s (2)
- AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h (3)
- 9h8h (1)
___________________
15 combos

Board: 3h 7h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.475% 27.47% 00.00% 4080 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 72.525% 72.53% 00.00% 10770 0.00 { 88-77, 33, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, 9h8h, 87s }

As you can see, it is absolutely possible for a tight player with 11% c-bet raise to construct a very solid range, that totally destroys you equity wise. Any kind of playing back at him would be possible, if you would have had a read telling you he slowplays his monsters and NFDs.


Turn
As played, imo just x/r AI, you have 67.483% vs his estimated flop raising range. Basically just pray for a non-heart river.

If he's an aggro monkey, we should jam the flop (yes just jam).

If he is an aggro monkey why not take an extra bet from him and just call the flop and x/r turn? Additionally he will probably continue with his bluffs when a flush will hit on the turn which makes it even better.

If he is an aggro monkey why not take an extra bet from him and just call the flop and x/r turn? Additionally he will probably continue with his bluffs when a flush will hit on the turn which makes it even better.

+1, I think this line has higher EV, than insta jamming OTF.

If he is an aggro monkey why not take an extra bet from him and just call the flop and x/r turn? Additionally he will probably continue with his bluffs when a flush will hit on the turn which makes it even better.

so 20% of the time we are going to c/r the turn when we hit our flush and what about the other 80% of the time? Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.

so 20% of the time we are going to c/r the turn when we hit our flush and what about the other 80% of the time? Doesn't sound like a great plan to me.

We are going to x/r 100% of the time, regardless of the turn card.

We are going to x/r 100% of the time, regardless of the turn card.

Based on stacksizes it will be a x/shove OTT while our equity when behind is around 20% with one card to come. If villain is betting the turn with a really weak range it's ok I guess but I don't expect people to get crazy with air once we call OOP on the flop. Do you?

Don't forget we are talking about aggro monkey, not about a standard reg. We think he is an aggro monkey, because his range is looser preflop and on top of that, he raises a lot OTF and then barrels his AIR on next streets. It is simply impossible to construct such wide range, that hits this flop hard.

Check my post above, where I showed how many value combos Villain might possibly have, around 15. Aggro monkey represents AT LEAST twice as much. Unless he raises for super thin value (99-TT, 8x), which is probably not the case here, he MUST have lots of AIR.

Vs AIR we want to gain as much value as we can. If we know he is going to barrel the turn (we expect him to do it, since he is aggro), then why not give him a chance to fire one more time? I think we should have around 45%++ fold equity and ~~ 20% equity when called in a massively bloated pot.

Assumptions:
- Fold Equity: 48%
- Equity: 20%
- Pot Size: $37.50
- Villain's Bet: $23.00
- Our Raise: $95.40
= EV = $3.2

On this particular turn card our equity should jump to 28-34% - our EV grows.

Ok fair enough. Nice post! Based on those assumptions we make $3.20 (3bb) on average versus this opponent in this spot when we take this line. That's almost BE based on one hand but it's 300bb/100 which is very nice. I'm at work at the moment so I don't have the time to make the other calculation but do you think this line has a higher EV then jamming the flop like blah suggested?

Jamming OTF:

vs top 17 value combos our equity is:

Board: 3h 7h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.181% 25.18% 00.00% 4238 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 74.819% 74.82% 00.00% 12592 0.00 { 88-77, 33, AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, 9h7h, 87s }


Say he has twice as much, 34 raising combos = we have 50% fold equity.

Assumptions:
- Fold Equity: 50%
- Equity: 25.1%
- Pot Size: $13.50 ($7.50+our $6.00)
- Villain's Bet: $15.00
- Our Raise: $104.40
= EV = -$10.1

- EV will be $0, if our FEQ will be at least 64%
OR
- EV will be $0, if our pot equity will be at least 35%


I mean, we have too few equity, the pot is too small and our stacks are slightly bigger. Villain has to be a serious maniac to make the shove +EV. I am just playing with the numbers, few adjustments can totally change the EV, but I just show you the way it works.

Looks like the previous line is much better with those assumptions. Thanks!