Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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SB: $318.81
Hero (BB): $127.80
UTG: $101.50
MP: $100.00
CO: $100.00
BTN: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with A A
UTG raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $13, UTG calls $10, CO calls $10

Flop: ($39.50) 8 J 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $20.00, UTG calls $20, CO raises to $87, Hero ? ? ?

UTG: 22/19/2.4/32/29 | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD
Raise 1st EP: 19%
Fold to 3b: 62%
Fold to C-Bet in 3bp: (0/1)

CO: 22/17/2.2/26/54
Call Open CO: 14%
Call 3b: 40%
Fold to C-Bet in 3bp: 56%
Raise C-Bet in 3bp: 10%

Here are some reads on him, but none of them look useful in this hand.

- floats gs, mr/call OTT
- 3b depolarized OOP
- 3b/5b AQs
- v-bets thinly
- Hero Call Happy when draws miss
- c-bets AIR 'OAD'?
- c-bets DEPO

Table dynamics: I have been 3b and sqz a lot this session, especially vs this guy, also on other tables. The main reason was a hot run, secondly I wanted to take the advantage of his calling tendencies+high fold to c-bet in 3bp.

Flop
I c-bet 1/2 in order to get calls from Jx, maybe 99-TT. When UTG calls, I put him on:
{ 99-TT, QQ, AJs }

And then CO goes all-in. I put him mainly on:
{ 77-88, JJ, T9s, 87s, AcQc, AcKc } - vs this range I can't call. He needs to have at least 5 worse combos (there are 6 combos of AJ, but I don't know if he would play them this way). I think we can also discount one combo of JJ, since sometimes he would have backraised us.

Pot Odds: 2.49 : 1 /// 29%

With all AJ combos and also 7c6c my equity is:

Board: 8c Jc 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.532% 34.86% 00.68% 8282 160.50 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 64.468% 63.79% 00.68% 15157 160.50 { JJ, 88-77, AcKc, AcQc, AJs, T9s, 87s, 7c6c, AJo }

Here we can find 6 worse combos (AJ). 3 combos are needed, so we will have 29% equity, which will still make calling a break even play (I forgot to add AcTc here).

Call or fold? (don't forget about UTG, who is left to act)

stick it in, if you think he has 76s in his range then QJ/KJ/JT should be too making his raising range all the wider otf assuming he is raising 1pair hands, I dont think its too unreasonable to think he is either given the aggro dynamic you have going and the flop which came

i would cbet more on this flop to set up an easy turn jam, considering how drawy the board is.

You can't really ever be bluffing here, so you're near the middle of your range ( overs with a flush draw - overpairs - sets). Given that your hand is kinda face up, his jam seems strong.

Also, his AF is right around the spot where he only raises combo draws on a regular basis. ( Are ppl really jamming AJ here???). Its all pretty close, but seems like you're getting an overlay. Getting 2.5:1 and 35% to win.

It's really close but if you can discount UTG from ever having your hand beat since he just flatted then I think the co will have enough draws and 1 pair hands to get it in with the dead money from UTG. If utg is likely to trap with stronger hands then its a fold imo

I don't believe CO is expecting hero to ever fold in this spot. Reason being that hero cbets into 2 people on one of the worst flops for a squeezer, villain can have some very strong draws but that don't make up for the value hands he can have(which he can have quite a few given the action).Don't forget the guy is 22/17/2.2, not the type to get out of line to much. Its somewhat close but I would lean towards folding.

I don't believe CO is expecting hero to ever fold in this spot. Reason being that hero cbets into 2 people on one of the worst flops for a squeezer, villain can have some very strong draws but that don't make up for the value hands he can have(which he can have quite a few given the action).Don't forget the guy is 22/17/2.2, not the type to get out of line to much. Its somewhat close but I would lean towards folding.

We do have a bet/fold range, or at least the avg. reg in our spot. how do we play AJ, QQ/KK. In this hand hero is considering folding AA. I think villain can have draws for sure.

@FatKing85
As played, what is your move: call or fold?

I would not fold.

I would not fold.

I wouldn't expect you to fold ever

I would not fold.

Are you ever folding? The only advice you give in most posts is: I'm not folding
Could you also explain why you are not folding because this really looks like a very marginal call.

Folding seems like the play here.

Yeah the more and more Ive played poker, the more and more Ive started calling.

My names actually extends back in the day where people used to call themselves "Icall2much" etc.. because in those days people realised that people actually called too much and rarely folded and it was a big mistake so it was a joke because you were supposed to fold. Nowadays I basically never fold because Ive gotten a lot better at pokerz

Few reasons this isnt a fold....

We have good odds.
UTG can have draws, QQ,AJ . CO is basically repping sets/draws.

Its sorta close but the higher number of draws you give them the higher your equity becomes and if they are ever at all loose the worse folding becomes.

This seems like a really really easy fold. Both of their ranges are super strong, especially UTG his range should be stronger than CO. Vs a range of combo draws and 2pair+ AA is in pretty bad shape. It's hard for them to have AJ when we have 2 A and there's a J out on the board. This is all assuming they are reasonable players.

Anyone calling preflop with QQ then calls with others behind to act or jams QQ a huge fish and even if they have QQ it's all of 6 combos which should have little affect on EV considering there are 2 plays involved here.

Don't get how UTG's range is stronger than CO's, but I do think this is still a fold. I understand that UTG's range is going to be relatively strong with one person to act behind, but don't you think he would raise mostly with 2pair+?

Hypothetically, if this were HU vs CO is this an easy jam?

At first glance, it looks like the easiest bet-fold ever, but I think if you give CO more combos of FD's, AcJc, AcTc, Ac5c, Ac4c,Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc this makes it a call with 40% equity vs his range. I would put these combos in his preflop range since his "Call Open CO: 14%"

This also assumes UTG's range is worse than ours - assuming UTG would raise all his 2p+, on this board, in this situation.

PokerStove vs CO:

28,710 games 0.000 secs 5,742,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 8c 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.233% 39.77% 00.46% 11419 132.00 { AdAs }
Hand 1: 59.767% 59.31% 00.46% 17027 132.00 { QQ-JJ, 88-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, T9s, 87s }