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$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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SB: $268.65
BB: $214.25
UTG: $218.70
Hero (MP): $315.60
CO: $208.00
BTN: $861.82

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with J J
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, BTN raises to $18, 1 fold, BB calls $16, UTG calls $12, Hero ? ? ?

EP: 17/12 reg, folds to 61% of 3bets

BTN: 42/28/1.7
3b: 8% (Sqz: 11%)
Fold to 4b: 25%
- I saw him sqzing TT pre
- once he flatted AKo OOP

BB: 21/17/2.7
Fold to 3b: 68%
Call 3b: 19%


Folding is obv out of question given the pot odds (16% or 5.08 : 1). Should we just flat and hope to hit a set in this huge pot or maybe shove and try to stack the fish, while at the same time blow the AQ/AK/JJ/QQ out of the pot? (there is some chance AK/QQ could fold)

Remember, we are 157 bbs deep.

Ok quick calculations i made just right now.You can check them though and see if they are right:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 63.81% 63.60% 0.21% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
MP3 36.19% 35.98% 0.21% { JJ }
x = fold equity
y= pot equity

ev= 60*x+[y*660-309]*(1-x)
ev= 60x+[0.362*660-309]*(1-x)
ev= 60x+[-70]*(1-x)
ev= 60x-70+70x
ev= 130x-70
x= 70/130
x= 54 % fold equity to break even.

8 % squeeze and calls shove or shoves with 2.56 % = 5.44 % of the time folding , so fold equity = 68 %.So it looks fine to shove or 4b and call it off even he might spazz out and shove something like AQ,TT or so on.Also I assume BB , UTG never ever have strong hand in this spot since I'd expect them to 4b pre and not flat to build big pot with AA or KK.Also the fish kinda makes it smallish - 3x so I think it's more likely that he is going to be weak here,so I'd prefer 4betting instead of shoving.

with the estimated fold equity of 68 %
ev = +18.4 $

His sqz is 11%, not 8%, which is even better. Say it is 10%. I'd give him { TT+, AKs, AKo } for sqz/call, which is 3.5%. Therefore we can expect around 65% fold equity.

Equity vs that range is 43.2%.
Final EV will be +$31.50 then.

And yeah, 4b instead of insta shove is also a thing I should take into account. Given your assumptions the EV is roughly correct (my Excel showed it would be ~~ +$19.2)

well , yeah it only gets better with higher % squeeze and wider call range.I definitely like 4b/calling here.If you think he is somehow capable of more hero calls than a shove might be an option too.

what a weird spot. fishy player squeezes BTN and BB reg coldcalls in a possible four-way pot? i can't imagine many hands i'd like this with. suited broadway stuff i guess but pure setmining would likely be bad as would flatting QQ+.

since we have such a clearly awesome call spot, i'd need a great reason to backraise. stacks and postflop playability argue against it. unless BTN is a massive spewbox/callstation i think calling is superior.

@terp
I agree with what you wrote. Would 100 bb effective stacks affect your decision?

Great reason to back raise is that there is now 24bb in the pot and it makes no sense for anyone other than the BTN to have a strong hand. No one else is deep and based on the description of the BTN I'd be super happy to risk 157bb vs him with JJ.

Cold call by the BB is super fishy doesn't matter what his range is. It's just inviting the 2 people in front of him to jam with anything that looks decent or or giving everyone very good implied odds for set mining.

I ended up shoving pre.