Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $338.80
Hero (BB): $274.75
UTG: $258.41
CO: $200.00
BTN: $80.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with T T
1 fold, CO raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) T 4 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($13.00) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.50, Hero raises to $25, CO calls $18.50

River: ($63.00) A (2 players)
Hero bets $63.00, CO raises to $169, Hero ? ? ?

Villain plays 31/8
Steal CO: 15%
C-Bet Flop: 42%
AFq F/T/R: 27 / 25 / 31
WWSF: 34%

Reads won't be helpful here.

Preflop
He calls 50% of 3-bets, but overall he is very nitty, therefore I decided to flat.

Flop
My plan was to x/c.

Turn
I check, because:
a) K is likely to hit his range (AK, KQ, KJ, maybe QJ and some FDs)
b) he may bluff on it

He bets and I x/r quite big, because I expect to get called here quite often.

River
AK won't fold now (9).
KQ/KJ (24) could fold, maybe my sizing should have been smaller.
There are also A4ss, A5ss (2)

Better hands:
- definitely QJss, but we have a big problem if he has all 16 combos of those, I am not sure tho

The biggest problem with this hand is: I rep a huge strength and he comes over the top, which looks ultra strong.

Call or fold?

instafold.
I think betting pot on the river was a mistake. Considering his stats, he gives up so easily, so even if he has a hand like AK he should be able to get away from it on a pot bet.
And as for the hands you put him on, with a 15% CO steal QJ is way more likely then A4/A5 etc..
consider this: a nitty player gets c/r on the turn, bombed on the river, and still decides to jam haha

I agree with Onur8. I'd bet $40ish on the river and definitely fold to his raise.

people, villain is playing 31/8. Even if hero describes him as nitty, you cant think about him in terms of a nitty TAG, who knows what he is doing, cause this opponent is likly not. That said, I do think riverr is quite close. But I think I would not fold, since it is possible that a bad "nitty" player raises AK here. Not very likly, I know, but but possible. Also he could blff occasionally and could turn up with a slowplayed underset. It is really close though.

people, villain is playing 31/8. Even if hero describes him as nitty, you cant think about him in terms of a nitty TAG, who knows what he is doing, cause this opponent is likly not. That said, I do think riverr is quite close. But I think I would not fold, since it is possible that a bad "nitty" player raises AK here. Not very likly, I know, but but possible. Also he could blff occasionally and could turn up with a slowplayed underset. It is really close though.

This.
Not folding.....

you honor your nickname^^

A river raise from this type of player is rarely AK and almost never a bluff. The fact that you lead the river for pot makes it even less likely he's raising thin or as a bluff. Against a range of all sets and QJ we have ~21% equity. Seems like a fold to me.

Folding would be a huge mistake.

Ok guys, let's put here some facts:
- we need 26.63% equity
- providing he shoves there all 16 combos of QJ, he has to jam AT LEAST 6 worse combos, so then we have 6/22 = 27.27% eq
- there are max 9 combos of AK
- my bet POT OTR looks very, very strong
- he shoved instantly (like in 1-1.5 seconds), this is something I forgot to add to my OR

you honor your nickname^^

haha well i agree with your post.

Hand is just far too strong to fold.

Given the fact he has some weaker hands for value does some crazy bluff every now and then its a call.

If there was a part of my river range I would assign to bluff catch then this would be it.

it's generally not a good idea to look to fold in these spots

quite simply, the logical combos you're going to name kind of go out the window with these player types. it's easy to 'see' QJ and whatnot, but these kinds of guys are quite weird. as you said, he needs six worse combos if this is never AA/KK. if we give a handful of those, we're still looking at a trivial number of AK combos and a handful of random pooflings.

"We need ..% to make the call and villain needs ... bluff combos in his range to make the call" Is very nice theory but it's almost never helping us in spots like this, we are only using it to justify our calls. In spots like this versus recreational players we should look at this in a very simple way like our villain does. Villain is raising only strong hands preflop and limp or flats his "playable hands". We show a lot of strenght with our turn c/r and river bet. Villain is never bluffing here and his range is just KK+,AK,QJ. I would not overcomplicate things with equity calculations etc versus players that don't think about this and just play only their own hand.

If we bet something like $40 on the river, would it be easier to fold for the guys that say we should call as played?

you say not to overcomplicate it, but you are guilty of doing just that. "we show a lot of strength here" suggests he is doing at least some kind of handreading. i am not sure you can say that. the fact is, while it's very easy to see how we are beaten here, it's not as easy to see the random crap fish show up with. it simply takes a lot of hands and a lot of showdowns.

if i had more of a postflop read that he were passive, i'd have no problem folding here.

you say not to overcomplicate it, but you are guilty of doing just that. "we show a lot of strength here" suggests he is doing at least some kind of handreading. i am not sure you can say that. the fact is, while it's very easy to see how we are beaten here, it's not as easy to see the random crap fish show up with. it simply takes a lot of hands and a lot of showdowns.

if i had more of a postflop read that he were passive, i'd have no problem folding here.

Maybe I did not use the right words but what I'm trying to say is that we are going much deeper into this hand then recreational players do (that's why most of us are better then recreational players so that's fine) with equity en number of bluff combos etc etc while the things rec players look at their own hand and our actions (level 1). So basicly we are thinking way ahead then we need in this hand versus a rec player. And I think you agree folding here too much is less worse then calling every time since this is very unlikely a bluff and we lose more often then we win. (from my experience)