[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
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BTN: $352.32 (176.2 bb)
SB: $416.20 (208.1 bb)
BB: $223.30 (111.7 bb)
Hero (UTG): $276.36 (138.2 bb)
MP: $413.91 (207 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $7, MP folds, CO calls $7, 3 folds
Flop: ($17) A 8 J (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO calls $12
Turn: ($41) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $28, Hero raises to $88, CO calls $60
River: ($217) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $169.36 and is all-in,
villain is 25/19. his calling range in the CO is around 10%. his 3bet is rather low with around 5 %, and after a few hundred hands, has never 3bet vs utg or mp. I wont give him AA/KK/QQ that much in his range, but I guess AK and JJ might be in it more often than not.
i give him something like this: JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo+
he might fold AJo vs an UTG open but note that it is only 2 combos against which we split, so him calling with AJo and stacking off should barely raise the EV.
I looked at his DB and saw indeed, that he calls a lot of hands that most regs would rather 3bet on both sides of a polarized range.
flop: my betsize is a bit off. 14$ would have been better. problem was that i made it small against him before and didnt want to scare him when i was holding top2.
so far he called 8/12 cbets, never raised. i decided to check and give him a chance to bet. I think theres a decent chance he flatted most fd on the flop since there are 2 highcards and he hasnt raised yet.AK and QJs are very likely to valuebet, id guess TT and KQ might bet sometimes as well.
im loosing value from KJ, QT and JT, those hands might call a small barrel and now check behind.
how. and of course im loosing to KTs, AQ, all sets and T9s in case he has it.
I decided to go for a checkraise since all those worse hands that he valuebets are a decent chance that he calls my raise. slight problem with the fd on his part though is that the Ad and Jd are already out.
so he does and were on the river. i decided against a bluffcatch. my checkraise on the turn implies too much strength for him to just bluffshove a busted draw or a busted combodraw that is now a pair.
QJ is always folding and never betting anyway.
KdQd might hero call once in a while and never bets for value.
AQ and AK are almost the same to him (i just happen to have the one combo of my range where it actually makes a difference). I think theres some chance he calls with those hands. theres 6 combos of AQ and 8 of AK.