Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
SB ($198)
BB ($229)
UTG ($234)
Hero ($199)
BTN ($444)

Dealt to Hero 5 5

fold, Hero raises to $6, fold, fold, BB calls $4

FLOP ($13) Q 5 6

BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB raises to $30, Hero calls $21

TURN ($73) Q 5 6 A

BB bets $49


Villain is 28/20 with 20% call open BB.
His fold to Cbet is 45% and 17% raise Cbet.
I expect him to raise there all his combodraws, sets, good top pairs and some bluffs, like bdfd etc.

The turn decreases a lot of his fd combos that he raises OTF.
When i expect him to bluff sometimes on the flop without fd/sd or something like that i expect him for sure that he will continue bluffing on the turn and river with all his bluffs and probably shuts down with his Qx hands on the turn and sets on the river.

My generall plan here is to call turn and blank rivers, because i'll get good odds to call given the fact he has enough bluffs in his range.

What you guys think about my plan to this hand.


I don't like flop 3betting because he is likely to bluff the clubs on the turn and river and he will valuebet worse for sure on blank turn and river.
My range on the turn looks like flushes/sets/2pair/Qx, so he probably expects me to fold out all but the flushes in my range by the river, so he will bluff river with all his bluffs.

One fact that im worried about is that this bottom set is the bottom of my turn calling range, so i probably have to fold this on the river, because i have enough better hands in my range to defend here.

So when i expect him to shut down by the river with his TP, sets, 2 pairs i look his range as bluff heavy.
Has 78cc, 89cc, Q9cc, QTcc, QJcc, QKcc, which are total 6 combos for value, which makes my rivercall on a blank huge +EV, when expect him to bluff his whole bluffing range.


Thanks in advice.

your plan is great based on your assumption and ranges. However, those assumptions and ranges doesn't make sense assuming villain is somewhat competent like expecting people to bet 100% of their turn range on the river also. The reason you took this line is to exploit the villain so why are you worried about being exploited by calling something not near the top of your range? Unless you're not sure about your read of course, then callling the river would be spew.

Your plan is ok if you don't have reads on your opponent. However:

So when i expect him to shut down by the river with his TP, sets, 2 pairs i look his range as bluff heavy.
Has 78cc, 89cc, Q9cc, QTcc, QJcc, QKcc, which are total 6 combos for value, which makes my rivercall on a blank huge +EV, when expect him to bluff his whole bluffing range.

You expect, but you don't know. Who knows, maybe he is capable of 3b/shoving flushdraws? If that's the case, I'd rather 3b the flop. Also, look at his sizing - it is very big and looks like he doesn't want to fold. I'm not saying flatting is bad, but would be definitely better with reads, so you can make more optimal decisions later.