Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Villain is a 29/25 reg (1,559 hands) that likes to slowplay big hands sometimes; 8% 3bet. Anyway, on the river it's pretty clear I can get value mostly from an A, or I guess some K high flush draw. But should be way more combos of AT-AQ, perhaps A2s+, perhaps lower offsuit aces not sure.

So, how much do you bet on the river, is he ever folding Ax? I feel bet sizing in these kinds of spots is important, not sure how much I can get away with. Do you bet more on the turn? I have 134 behind on the river.

Hero (CO): €155.52
BTN: €191.89
SB: €255.12
BB: €106.87
UTG: €213.62

SB posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has K A

fold, Hero raises to €2.87, BTN calls €2.87, fold, fold

Flop: (€7.24, 2 players) 8 A A
Hero bets €5.00, BTN calls €5.00

Turn: (€17.24, 2 players) K
Hero bets €13.00, BTN calls €13.00

River: (€43.24, 2 players) 3
Hero bets €X

On the turn his calling range is something like AQ, AJ, ATs, A9s, A8s, 88, KQs, and maybe some random floats that he wants to turn into a bluff later (less Ax combos in your range due to combinatorics). I would think about an overbet because it's very unlikely villain is going to fold AQ-A8,88.

On the turn his calling range is something like AQ, AJ, ATs, A9s, A8s, 88, KQs, and maybe some random floats that he wants to turn into a bluff later (less Ax combos in your range due to combinatorics). I would think about an overbet because it's very unlikely villain is going to fold AQ-A8,88.

Overbet on the turn you mean? both turn and river, you try to shovel all the money in?

I was thinking about overbetting the river too just not sure how much. Would like to play with some numbers as played, does he call A9-AQ for 143 on the river? I think he would A8 and 88

Sorry, I'm talking about the river... not the turn.

Hmm, I'm not sure about such a big overbet. You will only get called by A8(3) and 88(3). AQ or worse is never calling a shove because you would never shove AJ or worse....

Ok then how much? I'm interested in the optimal number...

Now that I mentioned it, perhaps overbetting turn can be a good idea too?

We have to know how many combos of FD's villaincan have on the turn compared to his A8, 88 and A9+. We dont want him to fold his FD's OTT and we want to get max value from his strong hands. Maybe something close to pot OTT and an overbet on the river can accomplish that... Would like to hear more opinions..

How big would you bet with a bluff?

I personally like to XS the river (and yes.. also as a bluff from time to time.. with hands like Q X

How big would you bet with a bluff?

I personally like to XS the river (and yes.. also as a bluff from time to time.. with hands like Q X

Players these days are checking back with Ax on river....
Really think you should bet river. Probably bet something like 30.

I would say the EV of c/r and a bet here tho is pretty similar.

How big would you bet with a bluff?

I personally like to XS the river (and yes.. also as a bluff from time to time.. with hands like Q X

What hands do you expect to fold when you take this line with KhQh?

Players these days are checking back with Ax on river....
Really think you should bet river. Probably bet something like 30.

I would say the EV of c/r and a bet here tho is pretty similar.

Are players getting worse? I guess that is good news.

Then I would prefer to overbet the river. Only chance of us repping a bluf.

I feel like this is a bad place to bluff especially with my agressive image. And he'll check behind some of the lower Ax hands, not sure when he starts betting... I bet like $70 in the end and got called, don't remember exactly I think it was AT or AJ. Then I was wondering if I could get away with even more than that

Sure you could bet more. People never fold AJ in this spot. Especially when they are amazing 20 tabling 6max superregs!

I am amazed he called a big overbet with AT-AJ, because you clearly rep at least 88. We know he is very likely to have an ace and he knows we have a big hand too, so we want him to call us for as much money as possible. I think ~~ €30-€35 is the most optimal sizing in order to reach our goal.

X/S doesn't make much sense:
a) He may check behind with a weak Ax
b) By x/s we clearly show him the nutz and he should imo fold even a hand like 88

If you expect him to call pre with many worse Ax, then you should not betting more than 30, targeting all AX in his range, i expect him to not fold any of them.

I am amazed he called a big overbet with AT-AJ, because you clearly rep at least 88. We know he is very likely to have an ace and he knows we have a big hand too, so we want him to call us for as much money as possible. I think ~~ €30-€35 is the most optimal sizing in order to reach our goal.

X/S doesn't make much sense:
a) He may check behind with a weak Ax
b) By x/s we clearly show him the nutz and he should imo fold even a hand like 88

Villain is a 100nl reg. Checking back Ax is pretty bad.

It is either an overbet or a XS. Would you really bet 30 as a bluff if you expect villain to call 30 with a high frq?

Edit: The only argument I can find for betting 30 is that we want to bet the same amount with A9o+.. but I would normally check with those hands because it is a good spot for villain to turn marginal SD into a bluff and bet worse Ax. But I'm very likely assuming that reg => a decent player.