Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

BTN: $125.80
SB: $141.84
Hero (BB): $186.33
UTG: $149.32
MP: $149.22
CO: $201.00

Pre Flop: ($1.35) Hero is BB with XX
UTG raises to $2, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) Q K T (2 players)
Hero bets $3.47, UTG calls $3.47

Turn: ($11.79) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

River: ($27.79) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.57, Hero raises to $76.33


Hero is ~35/29 (but almost all opens are from CO, BTN, SB). You don't have much history, he hasn't been 3Betting much this session - like 8% or so and seems mostly in line over 80 hands.

Your opening 13% UTG so the dynamic is such that you may give villain credit for QQ here.

What's your range for betting river? Do you fold any of it? If so, which parts?

You would never c/r a flush, straight or 2p on the river imo and you would not often donk a set or a straight on the flop because you expect villain to cbet this board like 100% of the time so your line doesn't make a lot of sense to me to be honest. I think villains range for betting the river is pretty strong, something likes flushes, straights, fullhouses and KQ.

Villains combos on the river:

KQ = 9
AJ = 16 (1 flush combo)
TT = 3
QQ = 3
KK = 3
AA = 6
AK = 12 (1 flush combo)

Total of 52 combos. How many do you think villain is folding?

I am often donking out here with sets / two pair this deep as opposed to x/r, not sure how a deep villain perceives it here but I think he would give me some credit for it.

Villain raises AJ on the flop. So villain river range is

Lets say I only do this with KTs, QKs so then

KQ = 4
KT = 1
TT,QQ,KK = 5
Flushes:
Ax 9
Kx 1
Others ~4


I expect him to fold KQ, KT and flushes so that's ~ 19/25 ~76%.

I don't really have any air hands on the river, but I'm not sure maybe trying to get villain of a flush is wayyy too ambitious to the point of being stupid.

Is it standard to open Axs UTG? Because imo villain cant have that many flushes in his range.

I'm not experienced in playing deep