Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $200.00
MP: $184.65
Hero (CO): $281.70
BTN: $203.70
SB: $206.45
BB: $205.20

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with A Q
1 fold, MP raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($13.00) 8 Q 9 (3 players)
BB bets $8.00, MP raises to $18.50, Hero calls $18.50, BB calls $10.50

Turn: ($68.50) 2 (3 players)
BB checks, MP bets $34.25, Hero ? ? ?

BB: 28/12/1.6/26/50/(204)
Donk Flop: 14%
- cc 3b w/ KK
- close to POT = monster
BB is a fishy opponent.

MP: 31/19/1.9/24/57/(8.4k) | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD/(Hands)
Raise 1st MP: 25%
Fold to 3b: 55% (63% on MP)
Call 3b: 39%
C-Bet F/T: 53 / 54

Hands are datamined. I see this guy probably 2nd time at the tables.

Preflop
Looks like there is a new trend, more and more regs on these stakes open with a 2 bb raise. I don't watch guys on BFP or Leggo, but maybe someone from them started doing this?

Anyways, I was just about to 3b for value, but eventually decided to flat in order to lure the fish into the pot. Furthermore, there is a very aggro reg on the BTN who is likely to sqz, so I can backraise him.

Flop
When fish donks into us I put him on TP, a draw or maybe something weaker. According to my note he isn't very strong. Then the PFR min-raises him. This is a very small raise, therefore I don't think he has any kind of monster like a straight or a set. I put him on QT/QJ/KQ/AQ/KK+ and some combo draws.
I have a posistion and a good hand, plan is to call the flop and re-evaluate the turn.

Turn
He looks pretty weak. Obviously I am not going to fold. Question is whether to call or raise. I think I can raise for value against the fish and vs range I put the PFR on. However, if I my estimations are off, I'm slightly value cutting myself. Calling is safer, but there are simply 10 million of bad river cards. Raise might be an overplay though.

Call or raise? (and if raise, what is our best sizing)

i think a raise is fine to get max value from the fish. id put the pfr most likely on a thin valuebet like QT/QJ/KQ. id just say from experience that if someone has an overpair or better in this spot theyre almost alyway betting big.
so I think you cant really get value from the pfr on the river. for us to make a valuebet his hand obv cant improve, and so its gonna be even weaker on a lot of rivers.

im not sure about the sizing though. i dont know if the reg would sometimes call a small raise.

Given sizing could def be a draw.

Id expect large raise size on flop vs a fish from a reg. Probably calling down because of that (unless FD completes)

I discussed this hand with our coach MagisterLudi. Although at first glance this sizing looks pretty weak, let's try to put him on range. What WORSE hands:
- raise the wet flop
- bet on the turn

- KTdd, KJdd, 87dd, 76dd (4)
- maybe few combos of KQ, but this would be really thin for him (say half of the combos, so 4)
- QT/QJ never play this way

Better hands:
- KK, AA (9)
- 88, 99, QQ (7)
- JTs (4) and some JTo shouldn't be excluded (say 4 again)

Folding would be very very hard, but actually this could be the best option. If we call, we should highly consider bluffing on non-paired rivers, because he can't have the nut FD + it's only 3-4 flush combos. Shoving is a very bad idea - he calls only with better hands.
Calling with the intention of bluffing is also super thin, so at the end of the day folding might be the best option with the highest EV.

Preflop
Looks like there is a new trend, more and more regs on these stakes open with a 2 bb raise. I don't watch guys on BFP or Leggo, but maybe someone from them started doing this?

Anyways, I was just about to 3b for value, but eventually decided to flat in order to lure the fish into the pot. Furthermore, there is a very aggro reg on the BTN who is likely to sqz, so I can backraise him.

not sure for me MP looks even more fishier than BB in this spot, high difference between VPIP and PFR, very high call 3bet.. BB is not so juicy to slowplay and hunt for him..if BB was huge whale who was throwing chips around everywhere then yes.. also i would flat if 3bet with AQ vs MP could be not very profitable.. but that guy screams : come on 3bet me , i'll flat with all my garbage there...



btw: his pre sizing and postflop sizing also looks very fishy.. of course there are regs who open 2bb , but hard to perceive that guy as a REG or something..

i think you can extract more value by 3betting him here, because he looks bad


as played : because he looks like a fish we can definitely expect him to show up with better hands , so folding should be hard , but fine

I don't think we can put so much emphasis on bet sizing tells when we have zero reads on him. For all we know he flopped the nuts. His cbet flop and turn stats are pretty low considering his opening range. He usually has some kind of a hand here, or at least a ton of equity. He's betting into 2 people on two streets, one of which is never folding.

This might be a good spot to fold and be able to take a note on what he gets to the river with without having to pay for the showdown. On a dry board a call is fine, but there's just to many bad rivers.

as played : because he looks like a fish we can definitely expect him to show up with better hands , so folding should be hard , but fine

Why do you this is a fold?

Do you think fish never bluff?

Im Always 3betting this guy preflop in this spot i think your missng to much value but not the end of the world.
I think the range stack hunter assigned MP is fairly accurate and not to mention we still have the BB to act behind. Against this range we only have like 30% equity not to mention what ever equity BB has when he overcalls.
Although his sizing looks weak because hes not setting himself up for a river jam and giving draws a decent price i dont think we can just assume against a fishy unknown.
With all this said i think our equity combined with the vunrability of our hand makes the turn a fold maybe even the flop.

3b pre, probably fold flop, fold turn now

please don't datamine

and MP is a fish, btw

please don't datamine

Why? What is wrong with it?

Why? What is wrong with it?

Epic derail

btw nowadays datamined hands are much better because u can use lots of stats in hm2 popups versus hero stats even if u have 30k hands on the villain ,ucan still can easily see how do villain reacts to all the things that u are doing vs him... what do u think about that guys ? what cons do u still see?

btw nowadays datamined hands are much better because u can use lots of stats in hm2 popups versus hero stats even if u have 30k hands on the villain ,ucan still can easily see how do villain reacts to all the things that u are doing vs him... what do u think about that guys ? what cons do u still see?

You have to remember that stats are an overall average. What villian is doing against one opponent he may be doing the exact opposite against another.If your just going to try and exploit villians stats you may very well own yourself if villian has adjusted but the stats say otherwise.

Why? What is wrong with it?

the fact that plenty of sites have prohibited it should give you some starting idea

Vs a 25% opening range.. 3bet pre.. You want to apply a lot of pressure preflop when he is that wide..

As played fold the flop .. especially when you have A

And like terp said. Don't datamine. Like pokerbots it is bad for the game.