Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

Hi guys!

New here at the forums and will start posting some 100NL hands.

Played this hand today and it got me pretty confused on the river.
Villain seems like a decent reg, somewhat passive maybe.
He hasn't been too much out of line. Seen him raise my 3 barrel on 257TA once i BvB where i folded A9. I've been betting a lot when he doesnt cbets flop and he could have picked up on this.

Can't remember a reg taking this line and find i hard to come up with a range. Is this a value hand i can beat/bluff enough to call? Would really appreciate some thoughts.

Villain stats are 23/18 3B: 7.0 Cbet:54% FT3B:60% EP PFR:16% CRRIV: 9% (11) AGGRIV:2.3 1.7k hands

He perceives me as: 23/19 3B: 7.0

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($94.70)
BB ($100)
UTG ($104)
Hero ($224)
BTN ($104)

Dealt to Hero T 8

UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $4, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($9.50) 9 7 K

UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7

TURN ($23.50) 9 7 K 6

UTG checks, Hero bets $16, UTG calls $16

RIVER ($55.50) 9 7 K 6 3

UTG checks, Hero bets $24, [color=red]UTG raises to $77.50 (AI)

pretty weird, but i dont think he is turning TT or smth similar into a bluff

Preflop is quite a loose call.

What flushes he could possibly have?
- AKs, KQs, KJs, KTs (4) - these are the most possible, because they are the strongest equity wise (pair+FD)
- AQs, AJs, ATs and maybe one random A5s (4)

Lower flushes are more likely to bet, because they don't have SD value. Almost all of them are combo draws, so they would have raised on the flop or on the turn. My point is, in the worst case scenario you are facing 8 combos of flushes and you beat the rest.

Your pot odds: 25.9% - which means he needs to bluff there about 3 combos (then you will have 3/8+3 = 27.27% equity).

His line is weird and he has already shown he is capable of doing a similar move (i know BvB is something different, but still), so I'd call.

u need to ask yourself what hands is he trying to bluff out (most players wont bet Kx in this spot), villain has SD value hand and at nl100 i would expect most players to x/c rather then x/r

Maybe 3 combos of Q Q x? I agree with the 2nd part of your post though.

no, i mean if he is bluffing what hands he wants us to fold ? we aint folding flush we rarely have what he have here and even then i dont think he is trying to fold out a str8, so he is targeting mainly Kx hands which wont always bet the river, so im basicaly saying if we are betting "for value" we arent folding much

Calling T8s on the btn vs UTG raise from a reg is a leak. If he opens something like 12% from utg, open stove and see where T8s falls within that 12%. Not even close.

About this hand:

1) an UTG opener is never taking this line with air. They are barreling a K high board because they can have KK and AK and you can't (normally).

2) If he thinks you're aggro, the best line to take with a hand like TP + FD (AKs, KQs), would be to x/c x/c x/shove.

3) He would be betting most value hands that are vulnerable to a flush on flop.

So that would lean me towards a fold.

I could see how someone could play KK with the Ks this way to get value from your sets, but in reality i dont think most people will go for value like that when you call so wide IP. He has to put tons of suited combos in your range.

@pokergarden

Don't you think he could play a set this way? Especially if he expects Hero to be aggressive vs his weakness. I am aware of the fact x/r a set on this board run out is very very thin, but who knows.

an UTG opener is never taking this line with air.

Yeah and this is our main problem...And with the previous hand where he raised the R we didn't see the SD, so we can't tell if he was bluffing there. Only 3 worse combos are needed for a call, but these could be never reached.

@pokergarden

Don't you think he could play a set this way? Especially if he expects Hero to be aggressive vs his weakness. I am aware of the fact x/r a set on this board run out is very very thin, but who knows.

Maybe with top set. But... it's pretty optimistic considering I don't think most people are taking that line with a set. It's definitely possible and maybe even a good line, but personally I cant assume villain is capable of taking that line until I see him do it.

With all that being said folding a straight here is pretty sick.

With all that being said folding a straight here is pretty sick.

Exactly. because even if he takes this line only with a top set - there are still 3 combos of them. This is serious mindfuck and I definitely can't blame the OP if he called.

Thanks for the input guys!

Preflop certainly is not my standard play but the blinds were pretty fishy so i guess its okay then.

Eventually i tank folded the river as i thought villain wasnt tricky enough to do this with bluffs or KK and probably has ak of spades here (makes sense?). It is very close though. In retrospect i would have liked to have called as this hand cost me much time discussing and posting it .

@pokergarden

I see you mentioned his tight range PF, doesn't his tight range really limit his flush draws and make this way closer to a call than a fold?

I think I would call the river. Do you expect him to shove the river with sets for value? It takes someone pretty discipline to c/c 3 streets with a set when villan has taken such a "weak" line...

Is anyone of you guys check-calling the flop as pfr with a flushdraw? And if yes, why is that better then cbetting?

@pokergarden

I see you mentioned his tight range PF, doesn't his tight range really limit his flush draws and make this way closer to a call than a fold?

Actually a tighter range has suited cards more often than unsuited.