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NL100 facing river x/jam with set

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TheGroucH

Avatar for TheGroucH

129 posts
Joined 08/2008

Villain is unknown, playing pretty standard 20/16/ 6% 3bet (12% sb), over 145 Hands
I had a pretty standard image, playing 26/24/15% and opening from co 20% at this time.

What would you put him on after this line?! My range looks really nutted imo and I am not sure if I could ever find a call readless here though I have 47$ left Frown. I decided to bet big for value because everybody seemed to be pretty call happy that session and I wanted value from Qx. Think it was too thin and my riversizing too big.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

BB: $289.56
UTG: $103.50
MP: $121.24
Hero (CO): $104.78
BTN: $169.11
SB: $264.63

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 8 Club 5 Club
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 5 Spade Q Heart 5 Diamond (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.50, SB calls $5.50

Turn: ($18.00) 7 Heart (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13.50, SB calls $13.50

River: ($45.00) 2 Diamond (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $34, SB raises to $242.63 all in, Hero xx

Posted 11 months ago

FogDucker

Avatar for FogDucker

21 posts
Joined 08/2008

Bro you have trips, not a set.
You need some reads besides stats. As played I prob fold, theres really no reason for him to turn QK/QX into bluff or expect him to jam missed backdoor fd.

Posted 11 months ago

NoWayFolding

Avatar for NoWayFolding

3805 posts
Joined 03/2008

Not folding.

Very very few 5x hands in your range especially if you open 20% (which means 85s isnt in there).

Call and feel ok if you get shown 77.

Posted 11 months ago

FaceMyAlterEgo

Avatar for FaceMyAlterEgo

370 posts
Joined 07/2010

Agree about not folding. 77 is about the only valuehand for villain that makes sense, since he probably does not even call A5s pre, even if he did, he might raise flop or turn, or flat river. 77 = 3 combos, if he has 1 bluff combo, you can call. And after 120 hands, there is no way of ruling out AhJh or 88/99/TT turned into a bluff

Posted 11 months ago

pokergarden

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374 posts
Joined 11/2010

yeah 105bb deep you gotta call here.

Posted 11 months ago

TheGroucH

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129 posts
Joined 08/2008

StackHunter

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2643 posts
Joined 09/2010

A5s is unlikely and even if this is only 1 combo. 3 combos of 77 are the most likely, but if these are the only value combos, it means he has to bluff with only 1 combo to ensure you have over 22.9% pot odds (1/(3+1) = 25%).
Call.

Posted 10 months ago




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