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Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1807462
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CO: $52.76
BTN: $100.00
SB: $75.79
Hero (BB): $114.10
UTG: $132.94
MP: $148.23

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with J T
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) 7 8 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.50, Hero raises to $13, BTN calls $9.50

Turn: ($31.50) 3 (2 players)

Villain is a 22/18 reg with a very high WTSD (36%) over 1k hands, 45% steal otb. I think the flop checkraise is standard because we have a lot of equity and fold out his air. Turn is less clear to me. I think because of his tendencies he's going to call down frequently on turn/river barrels when we brick. However if we c/c turn and lead river when we hit it's going to be hard to get paid, even vs this guy. Thoughts?

what is this guy's range for getting to the turn? What do you expect him to do with his range when you check and when you bet?

When you answer those 2 questions the answer should be pretty obvious. Without that information it's impossible to figure out what to do.

Your logic for flop raise is also flawed. We don't raise just because we have lots of equity. Pot equity is only a part of EV equation. Raising just because you have equity is the same as betting for value, both of which are incomplete thought process.

Thanks Blah. To rephrase, I think checkraising flop is best because we have good pot equity and fold equity, and we get him to fold out his equity share with a large part of his range on the flop. Better?

As to his continuing range, I think he’ll continue with 8x, 7x, overpairs, oesds and some flushdraws, though I would expect villain to fastplay the NFD and I doubt he slowplays two pair+ on this wet of a board. I believe he’ll continue with close to 100% of his range OTT and call down with most of his made hands on blank (non club, non-straightening) rivers.

I guess I could rephrase my question as, is there merit to betting turn even though we expect to have no fold equity? I feel c/c-ing turn and coming alive on a club/9 river really turns my hand face-up.

Thanks Blah. To rephrase, I think checkraising flop is best because we have good pot equity and fold equity, and we get him to fold out his equity share with a large part of his range on the flop. Better?

As to his continuing range, I think he’ll continue with 8x, 7x, overpairs, oesds and some flushdraws, though I would expect villain to fastplay the NFD and I doubt he slowplays two pair+ on this wet of a board. I believe he’ll continue with close to 100% of his range OTT and call down with most of his made hands on blank (non club, non-straightening) rivers.

I guess I could rephrase my question as, is there merit to betting turn even though we expect to have no fold equity? I feel c/c-ing turn and coming alive on a club/9 river really turns my hand face-up.

Do you think villain is going to bet the turn often when we check? What hands do you think he will bet?

Check-calling seems like the worst option for me because we are going to check-fold on ~70% of the rivers.

Is check-raising the turn bad if we fold out medium strenght hand that are still ahead of us? And we still have ~25% against his overpairs.

I would continue betting here, your equity is very high and alot of players like to call wide in posiition
and will fold there weak pairs usally by the river. So I would commit to 3streets here... offsuit 3 on the river
and anything that pairs the board I would Chk/fold. He just going to hero call us too often on those cards.
Every other card you should be able to bluff with a high success rate given his likely weak range and given the average thought process of a 100nl player (he will bluff his draw 2 streets but Chk fold if he misses the river). If you check the turn here you should Check fold, you wont be priced in and you wont get paid
often enough.

Side note- If your not barreling here when you CR its going to be pretty easy to play vs you in the future
meaning if your not barreling with this hand,and on this board, your pretty much never bluffing here on the turn.Any semi observant player will pick up on this and once he does he will act accordingly.

Hope this helps. GL

I feel like its a tricky spot because there's so many daws in your range that if he has a pair here and he likes to bluff catch he might call you down but fold the to the river cards that Make your hand (clubs) and he might fold on a J since it completes the straight. So if you have no fold equity and no implied odds I think check folding is best.

Not to mention if he has a nut flush draw here you're drawing pretty thin.

Well usually NutFds will try to get it AI on the flop, so we can discount a few combos of those.
But I think you are under estimating his fold equity on the river. I know in these spots guys like to get into bluff catching mode, but if hes not going to barrel off here with this hand then we pretty much have a zero bluffing frequency on the turn here. That simply means villian can float our CRaises and just bet the turn every time he checks since hes giving up pretty much everytime he checks.OBV it will take a decent amount of hands before people will exploit you for this, but with the sik huds out there today it will happen quicker than you think. IMO its pretty standard 3barrel with a clean image, if we dont have a clean image or if we have a sik history with this villian we are best off just firing the best of rivers.

Your logic for flop raise is also flawed.

this blah234 explanation is actually very good.

You need to look at the other pieces before you c/r.

How often does he have air when you are faced with a flop bet??

Only you know this (by looking at his preflop range in conjunction with his flop cbetting range)