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100 NL AA against big riverbet. Fold or call?

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mobbe85

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42 posts
Joined 08/2011

Villain is a 23/22 with a 3b of 10%, only have 57 hands on him so not much of a sample. He does not 3b this pot but I think it still gives some information that he seem to 3b fairly frequently.

Pre-Flop thinking:
When he just calls here I eliminate alot of weak AXs, KXs and hands like KJ, KT since I beleive he would probably fold these hands or 3b them. I actually feel he is stronger when he calls and probably has a range from A10+, 22+ and maybe (but less likely) some suited connector type hands.

Flop thinking:
This is a very dry board and I cbet of course. I am not that afraid when villain check/raise this board since it is very dry and I will cbet this alot. Therefore I think he will raise this a fair amount of the times. The only thing this gives me i that I cross most fo the middle pairs out of his range (88-JJ disapear) since I think he would call.

Turn thinking:
Turn bricks and he bets about 2/3 pot. Now I feel that is hand is becoming polarized to a bluff or a real hand like AQ, KK, or a set. I only call since I still think he can have a bluff here some of the time.

River thinking:
As he ships the river I feel like he has sized the pot perfectly to have a pot bet left. This feels like a 50/50 spot if I should call or fold, what do you think?


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1792442
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (): $100.00
mxxK: $102.89
sw27: $213.55
tothelimit: $100.00
Abnoe: $155.43
Mertlbua: $84.45

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is with A Heart A Diamond
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, sw27 calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 4 Spade 7 Club Q Heart (2 players)
sw27 checks, Hero bets $5, sw27 raises to $14, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($34.50) 2 Spade (2 players)
sw27 bets $22, Hero calls $22

River: ($78.50) K Diamond (2 players)
sw27 bets $70 ????

Final Pot: $78.50

Posted 12 months ago

improva

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3767 posts
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If I read the hand correctly villain is in the BB and hero has the BTN. I think your assumptions about his flatting range is way off.

I would like to know how wide you are OTB and how much you fold to 3bets on avg. That has a huge impact on the range villain will flat preflop. Unless the SB is very aggro you should most likely be opening around 50-60% of hands in this situation.

As a side note I think 3x is suboptimal OTB in modern poker. Too much 3betting preflop.

Posted 12 months ago

mobbe85

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42 posts
Joined 08/2011

My stats are 22/20, 3b 11.9%. I open OTB on average 28%., I should mention that this is Zoom poker by the way.

What is a normal range for villain to flat? Is he even wider than I thought?

Posted 12 months ago

improva

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Armisan

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1002 posts
Joined 03/2009

28% ... That is a massive leak



You mean to have 28% in unopened pots or having 28% overall on BU is a leak? It should be way bigger in both cases? If so by approximately how much?

Posted 12 months ago

mobbe85

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Joined 08/2011

Ok, thx. It certainly is a big leak. What is a good 3b stats in Zoom 6max? Should I be tighter or looser than normal 100 NL 6max?

I would also like to know more about the hand. Analysis on the streets, if my thinking was off and why.

Posted 12 months ago

mobbe85

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28% ... That is a massive leak



I have 28% overall and 35% in unopened pots. Is that way too low?

Posted 12 months ago

fabi2266

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181 posts
Joined 09/2010

I guess we are aifraid of KQs/ KQo, 44 & 77 right? That would be only 18 combos.

If I go after the stats he seems definately in cappable of going for a big bluff and the small flop check-raise is a big sign of weakness, raising like "that flop is so dry, what can he have there to call my raise & call all in after turn & river bet?" I've seen that often in NL100 zoom games.

Call, dont feel too bad if he has one of these 18 hands & make a note either way Wink

Posted 12 months ago

action_jp

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Ok, thx. It certainly is a big leak. What is a good 3b stats in Zoom 6max? Should I be tighter or looser than normal 100 NL 6max?

I would also like to know more about the hand. Analysis on the streets, if my thinking was off and why.


Hi There

I think that unopened OTB you should on average be opening something like 45-50% of hands, depending on who's in the blinds (more vs ppl that fold more often for example).

As far as pre flop ranges go, it's hard to determine without knowing what his 3b range is (polarised, unpolarised, what's he do with SCs, small pairs etc.).

On turn/river, I think that the key is your perceived image, and the dryness of this board. Without knowing a lot about this villain, generally seems like a weird spot for him to bluff, your flop bet/call and turn call is pretty strong.

Posted 11 months ago

improva

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Joined 02/2008

I would just fold the turn because the turn does not bring many draws to villain“s range and I don't think he ever is XR hands like AQ, KQ.

Hero has a fnk ton of TP and not very many 7x, 4x hands in his perceived range when he calls the XR... Just a strange spot to be bluffing.. but certainly exploitable to fold AA. So if you worry about that.. call turn and river.

and as Action_JP wrote... avg of 50% from the BTN is a reasonable target (but I really hate targets since your opening range should be anything from 35%-100%.

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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Is everyone here overlooking that this is Zoom? I agree in a standard 6-max game opening only 28% on the BTN is a leak, but Zoom is going to be totally different.

Posted 11 months ago

improva

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Is everyone here overlooking that this is Zoom? I agree in a standard 6-max game opening only 28% on the BTN is a leak, but Zoom is going to be totally different.



Why is that?

Posted 11 months ago

dietchipz

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289 posts
Joined 11/2011

Is everyone here overlooking that this is Zoom? I agree in a standard 6-max game opening only 28% on the BTN is a leak, but Zoom is going to be totally different.




You should just be basing your BTN open and sizing depending on the players in the blinds....like in 6 max and I assume zoom.....Dont see what the difference would be between the two in a BTN opening spot??

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

You should just be basing your BTN open and sizing depending on the players in the blinds....like in 6 max and I assume zoom.....Dont see what the difference would be between the two in a BTN opening spot??



Because people generally have a tighter range in ZOOM in later positions as they don't want to wait to see if action folds to them with a mediocre hand. At least this is how Rush played. If I'm wrong in thinking this way then I apologize. However, from my prior experience, people auto folded until they held a stronger hand.

Posted 11 months ago

blah234

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Joined 12/2009

Because people generally have a tighter range in ZOOM in later positions as they don't want to wait to see if action folds to them with a mediocre hand. At least this is how Rush played. If I'm wrong in thinking this way then I apologize. However, from my prior experience, people auto folded until they held a stronger hand.



so that means you should steal more not less no?

Posted 11 months ago




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