Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

1. What's his Call Open BTN?
2. Do you know how he reacts vs 3-bets? Have you seen him coming over the top with weird hands or flatting the 3-bets?
3. Do you have any flop 3-bet range vs this player? If yes, what hands would you 3b here?

I definitely lean towards 3b/calling here.

River x/r might be a decent move if you believe he is capable of folding Ax + you have a clear image like D3rJack has already said.

Yeah, im obviously checking the turn to check call.

Think leading turn is pretty awful.

I'm also not really sure how we rep nothing - I would play all my legitimate valuehands this way. Once he raises flop hes extremely polarized, and i WOULD go for the river x/r.

Also, 3betting flop seems only good if we're going to get shoved on by KQ type hands. I think without a dynamic (and given I think my image is clean, if im doing this river shove), it's probably bad. We should be calling.

Once he raises flop hes extremely polarized,

why?

Also, 3betting flop seems only good if we're going to get shoved on by KQ type hands. I think without a dynamic (and given I think my image is clean, if im doing this river shove), it's probably bad. We should be calling.

Keep in mind that those hands have at least 25% equity against you. He is IP and he will choose whether to stack off or not. Your hand is vulnerable, so you are probably more likely to make mistake than he is.

if this works it's in spite of repping nothing. not saying it won't, but this is simply too opponent specific to say much about river.

flop is more interesting. you should know more about how he plays turns after raising if he raises this often. you should also know more about what he raises and how he responds to flop 3bets.

+ 1 million

how are you supposing we reccomend he plays the turns?? if he knows flops are dry...are we assuming hes gonna barrell scare cards? considering we know he thinking about flops??

why?

Hes got hands that beat me that raise for value, and hands that dont? Hes not raising for the triple range merge with A9 for the most part.

Keep in mind that those hands have at least 25% equity against you. He is IP and he will choose whether to stack off or not. Your hand is vulnerable, so you are probably more likely to make mistake than he is.

So we have some spots to play poker in on future streets. If we 3bet, and he shoves, I guarantee you our equity is going to be HORRIBLE.

So we have some spots to play poker in on future streets. If we 3bet, and he shoves, I guarantee you our equity is going to be HORRIBLE.

He raises 30% of your c-bets. That's truly A LOT. If he would stack off here only with range that has us crushed (sets and basically that's it, JJ+ 3b pre), his fold to 3b after raising a c-bet would be like...90% or so. So that should be still a +EV, because you're going to pick up dead money a lot.

And as your FEQ goes down, his shoving range goes up, so does your equity (for example vs 9x hands, gutshots, 2 overs, etc.).

The point is - he can't have it both ways. Both wide shoving range and high equity against your TT.

His total range on the flop is +/-:
{ TT-22,AQs-A8s,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,KQo } = 128 hand combos (including card removal effect of flop+your hand)

He raises 30% of hands, so that is about 43 combos (128 / 3).
9 combos have us crushed, but on such dry board texture I do think he slowplays them at least sometimes. I would put 6 combos. 6 out of 43 is 14%.

EV of 3b - Assumptions:
- Fold Equity = 86% (100% - 14%)
- Equity = 8.9% (vs sets)
- Pot Size = $15 + our bet $11.25 = $26.25
- Our Raise = $63.75 (2.5x should be an okay 3b sizing) -> the total raise will be $75 ($11.25+63.75=$75)

- EV = $41.4 (w/o including rake, so it is about $40)



Now say he 3b/AI with { 99,55,22,A9s,98s,87s,76s } - 23 hand combos
Again, let's divide 3 slowplayed set combos = 20 hand raising hand combos.

EV of 3b - Assumptions:
- Fold Equity = 53% (23 out of 43)
- Equity = 50.5% (vs sets)
- Pot Size = $15 + our bet $11.25 = $26.25
- Our Raise = $63.75 (2.5x should be an okay 3b sizing)

- EV = $36.3 (w/o including rake, so it is about $35)

IMPORTANT: Even with the same equity like in the first example (8.9%) and 53% FEQ like in the 2nd example, our 3b still shows a marginal profit!

I don't want to edit that post, but I made a small mistake in calcs:
- Our Raise Size should include our whole stack, since we 3b/call -> therefore it is not $63.75, but $190.8.

Still the EV is:
a) $26.7
b) $36.9

Do you expect him to value bet his Kx hands OTR? If so, it seems like we should be ch/r our value hands vs. leading.

He raises 30% of your c-bets. That's truly A LOT. If he would stack off here only with range that has us crushed (sets and basically that's it, JJ+ 3b pre), his fold to 3b after raising a c-bet would be like...90% or so. So that should be still a +EV, because you're going to pick up dead money a lot.

And as your FEQ goes down, his shoving range goes up, so does your equity (for example vs 9x hands, gutshots, 2 overs, etc.).

The point is - he can't have it both ways. Both wide shoving range and high equity against your TT.

His total range on the flop is +/-:
{ TT-22,AQs-A8s,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,KQo } = 128 hand combos (including card removal effect of flop+your hand)

He raises 30% of hands, so that is about 43 combos (128 / 3).
9 combos have us crushed, but on such dry board texture I do think he slowplays them at least sometimes. I would put 6 combos. 6 out of 43 is 14%.

EV of 3b - Assumptions:
- Fold Equity = 86% (100% - 14%)
- Equity = 8.9% (vs sets)
- Pot Size = $15 + our bet $11.25 = $26.25
- Our Raise = $63.75 (2.5x should be an okay 3b sizing) -> the total raise will be $75 ($11.25+63.75=$75)

- EV = $41.4 (w/o including rake, so it is about $40)



Now say he 3b/AI with { 99,55,22,A9s,98s,87s,76s } - 23 hand combos
Again, let's divide 3 slowplayed set combos = 20 hand raising hand combos.

EV of 3b - Assumptions:
- Fold Equity = 53% (23 out of 43)
- Equity = 50.5% (vs sets)
- Pot Size = $15 + our bet $11.25 = $26.25
- Our Raise = $63.75 (2.5x should be an okay 3b sizing)

- EV = $36.3 (w/o including rake, so it is about $35)

IMPORTANT: Even with the same equity like in the first example (8.9%) and 53% FEQ like in the 2nd example, our 3b still shows a marginal profit!

Your assuming he ever shoves and stacks off with worse. I think it's fairly unlikely. Just because he raises the flop a lot, doens't mean he stacks off light in those spots. His range could be extremely polarized (and judging by my time with him, I think it is), and he could never really be raising top pair here.

Also, you're assuming when we 3bet and he folds, we don't make a ton more money when we call and he bets the turn. If we 3bet, we lose the same vs sets/real hands, in comparison to calling and getting more money from his bluffing range.

I don't see the point in 3betting, other than "protecting our hand" and making our hand easier to play - which is a horrible reason to play a hand a certain way.

Do you expect him to value bet his Kx hands OTR? If so, it seems like we should be ch/r our value hands vs. leading.

I would assume on the river, he has an ace or a king, and I'd be checkraising, because I assume hes gonna valuebet a king. If his range is air, Ax, or Kx, or slowplayed sets and such, I would always x/r my value hands. I don't see why everyone thinks I NEVER have anything when I take this line. I would ALWAYS take this line with my valuehands, and think it is clearly the optimal line.