Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

$100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $104.00
MP: $141.22
CO: $106.50
BTN: $37.75
SB: $100.55
Hero (BB): $104.75

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 9 6
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) T 8 A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

Turn: ($11.00) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($11.00) J (2 players)
Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises to $14.50, Hero ? ? ?

25/23/6.5/30/40/(3.8k) | VPIP/PFR/AF/WTSD/W$SD/(Hands)
Steal BTN: 54%
C-Bet F/T/R: 87 / 76 / 60 (91% OTF in posision)
AFq F/T/R: 60 / 42 / 20
WWSF: 48%

Reads:
- bluff mr on ultra wet brd IP
- double barrels AIR on xxA-A
- OVERbets for thin value TPMK vs fish

Preflop
I don't know how about you, but I am incapable of folding such hands vs ultra aggro stealers. He folds 60% vs raise when c-bets, so I am not gonna play fit or fold vs him.

Flop
I expect him to fire this board twice. My plan is to x/c OTF and x/r AI OTT other than spade (besides 7 , ldo).

Turn
The only hands I think he plays this way are SD value hands (Tx, QQ-KK or something).

River
I can represent lots of draws, TP and two pair stuff + he showed weakness = I lead for 1/2 PSB for bluff and for value as well.

He raises ~~ 2.5x.
- reads tell me, that he did it once as a bluff, but used a slightly smaller sizing (and this was also on earlier street)
- he is ultra barrel happy
- almost any reasonable FDs are combodraws OTT (KQ/KT/QT/T9/76/Q9/65/54/K5/Q5/T5), so after he checked the turn I ruled them out

He can still have about 15-20 possible flush combos, however, I would discount at least some of them given his barrel tendencies.

The whole point is - he reps a small percentage out of 15-20 flush combos.


What is your move?
A) Give up, he has it.
B) Bluff AI and hope it will work 48-49% of the time

i dont get why u want to have this shit in your preflop calling range but w/e

i think its kind of retarded for him to be bluffing in his spot, your range is smth like TP+, and he ckd back turn which means he cant rep much OTR, so it doesnt makes sense for him to be bluffing

his river agg freq is really low, and he also can have some GS and FD's with pair of T which he decides to ck back OTT, so for me its a fold

i dont get why u want to have this shit in your preflop calling range but w/e

Because:
a) he prints money on my folds
b) besides the total preflop pot it is almost certain he will fire 1/2 PSB on the flop, so I actually call $1.50 to win $8.25 ($5.50 pre + his $2.75 c-bet), giving me about 19% pot odds.

My equity only on the first 3 flop cards (not like the usual equity which assumes we will see all 5 cards) vs his range is 28.578%, so it looks like even a fit or fold play can show a profit given our implied pot odds.
And 96s is a hand able to catch some flop or to hit a medium pair.

Because:
a) he prints money on my folds
b) besides the total preflop pot it is almost certain he will fire 1/2 PSB on the flop, so I actually call $1.50 to win $8.25 ($5.50 pre + his $2.75 c-bet), giving me about 19% pot odds.

My equity only on the first 3 flop cards (not like the usual equity which assumes we will see all 5 cards) vs his range is 28.578%, so it looks like even a fit or fold play can show a profit given our implied pot odds.
And 96s is a hand able to catch some flop or to hit a medium pair.

This doesn't include reversed implied odds which seems pretty high given that you posted this hand.

Fold river, hes short stack?? No FE at all on the river

I think its pretty ambitious to do anything other than fold here. Can't see him folding any value hand at all with that stack size.

I think flatting this hand is not great. But IF I would flat, I would do something on the flop. I think c/c is the worst option on this board.

Fold pre vs this stack size. Probably call a min raise.

Not sure about flop/turn play. Maybe I'm outta line but I just wouldn't be surprise to see him double barrel KQo and call turn given the odds he'll be getting and small chance you're bluffing (with hands like you have).

So I'd just x/r the flop and be done with the hand if I decided to flat pre.

had some thoughts, saw slowlane's post - so ^^^^^+1

fold preflop

I'd fold or 3b preflop, or c/r flop. Even the c/r flop isn't that great because of his short stack, you only have very limited leverage here.

And 54% BTN steal is pretty standard... or at least it should be