Small Stakes Shorthanded NL Poker Forums

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, May 27, 08:44:38 ET 2012
Table Canopus VIII (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $85.50 USD ) - VPIP: 40, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 1.2, Hands: 91
Seat 2: Hero ( $176.14 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 2.4, Hands: 135139
Seat 3: Player3 ( $105.94 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 2.3, Hands: 5179
Seat 4: Player4 ( $47.23 USD ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 25, 3B: 16, AF: Infinity, Hands: 61
Seat 6: Player6 ( $100.00 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 3.4, Hands: 10423
Hero posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Qd ]
Player4 folds
Player6 raises [$2.50 USD]
Player1 calls [$2.50 USD]
Hero raises [$8.50 USD]
Player3 calls [$8.00 USD]
Player6 folds
Player1 calls [$6.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 3c, 8c ]
Hero bets [$14.80 USD]
Player3 folds
Player1 calls [$14.80 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
Hero checks
Player1 checks
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
Hero ?

PSB left,

Villain had a low fold 2 cbet of 27%

I think the fish range is allot of TT,99,JJ, 89,A8 FD's just verry wide pool of weak 1pair made hands and some draw that took the freecard

So i think that i should bet this river, what do you think ?

When he checks the turn, most of the time he has showdown value hand = he is going to call river if you bet.

Unless you make some random overbet that might scare him off but I don't know how good idea that is.

Yes i think your right, although i think hes passive enough to check a FD on the turn....
However hes most likely going to have a weak made hand, his range is so wide for calling cbets...

So do you think he will call a PSB with 8x, 3x, 99/TT ?

Probably with 99/TT, not sure about the rest.

Spots like these are better for double barrelling for value and fold to a turn raise so when you check it looks like you are saying you don't have a King unless you tend to check with AK on turn with this kind of boards and he knows it.

So with that said.. if you think he knows that you have air when you check turns like this, you should not bluff the river because then it's an easy call with 3x even if you make PSB.

Why are you betting this flop if you don't expect to get enough folds ?

I expect him to call all pairs on this flop, so i'd ch/f this flop, because have no equity against most of his range and we are 3way.

Stacksizes also are not good for bluffing him off from 2nd pair etc.

Why are you betting this flop if you don't expect to get enough folds ?

I expect him to call all pairs on this flop, so i'd ch/f this flop, because have no equity against most of his range and we are 3way.

Stacksizes also are not good for bluffing him off from 2nd pair etc.

Yea but his range is verry wide, when he missed i think a half pot cbet takes it down

If you don't expect fish to bet for thin value this 99-JJ, which i is pretty likely you should consider check/call on the river, because these Kx hands in his range will bet the turn often.

Bet the river is not gonna fold out these 99-JJ, so bet the river is -ev,because the fish folds only weaker hands. But assuming he is not gonna bet with 99-JJ, check/call should be +EV.

Also you can calculate is shove turn +EV and then compare all options.

I also don't think the fish is gonna fold his mid pair here so I don't think you should bet. I'm also checking flop btw because the fish has such a low fold to cbet. Or I would double barrel depending on his fold to turn cbet. The fish doesn't expect a turn check if you have a king so I see him snap a riverbet with his middle pair and only folding his FD's and random air. Don't know if you can ch/c though. I agree most fish don't valuebet thin but some do so I'm probably ch/f this until I know some more about his betsizing when he's bluffing etc.

the turn would be the spot to bluff if you wanted

i'd also bet this particular flop smaller. it's pretty dry, you won't get played back at, and you leave yourself more space to bluff later

you use the stat fold to CB but I think this spot is different in that it's a 3b pot. I think if you filter for Fcb in 3b pots most villians tend to be much more honest, especially fishy ones. I don't mind stabbing once and then folding vs the 3way flop. Also you say villain has a very wide range but what are his F3b stats.. if he doesn't fold pre feel free to fire another (or my preference 3) barrels unless you know the fish is really stationy.